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I would read Merkel's actions as those of a German real politician who challenged German orthodoxies only when she had to.  Even her decision to allow in a million refugees could be read in the context of a declining German population and work force.  Greece was dispensable (and an opportunity for moralising) and Brexit is an opportunity to make the EU more cohesive under German domination if not total control.  

The problem arises if Le Pen or ongoing Italian crises threaten the future of the Eurozone/EU - both institutions which have benefited Germany more than anyone. She could (somewhat uncharacteristically) take the initiative and campaign on the basis of a strong Germany/EU post Brexit with enhanced security cooperation, economic integration and social cohesion taking advantage of an improving economic situation and anti-Trump/Brexit sentiment especially if Macron wins or Le Pen doesn't.

I'm not close enough to German politics to assess the likely strategies and outcomes.  Anyone up for a diary on the German elections?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 18th, 2017 at 12:52:23 PM EST
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Fiscal integration ain't coming even if the arms were to fall off due to rotting. There is no political mandate anywhere for it. Money talks louder than words, the crises will be bandaged over but not solved. The best we can hope for is a true banking union. Merkel is a minimal movement politician, certainly not one to take preemptive action. Her modus is to let things stand until they're well cooked (or decomposed) and then jump in.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Thu Jan 19th, 2017 at 07:22:24 PM EST
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