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If we have the open customs border with Ireland, which we are more or less legally obliged to do under the terms of the Good Friday agreement, then Hard Brexit, about which so much froth is currently being expended, is simply not available.
I suspect that both Theresa May and Phillip Hammond, the UK Chancellor, both know this, but have different priorities. May, for the sake of party unity, is playing this down. Hammond for the sake of business and financial continuity, is talking this up.
So, we have the current Tory psychodrama that is currently being played out across the pages of right wing newspapers, ie nearly all of them. Either calling for Hammond's head as betraying brexit or calling for May's head cos she can't lead the party properly (which is code for not calling for instant brexit and the possible nuking of Brussels).
This is mixed in with the House of Lord's beginning to sharpen their knives over the messs that is the "leaving the EU" bill that was cobbled through the Commons. The Lords is filled with the old hands, the legal and political wonks whose primary purpose is to slice and dice all sloppily constructed legislation to make it fit for purpose.
They know this bill is rubbish and have made great sport at salivating about what they're going to do with it. The Lords is also predominantly filled with Remainers, being the current House of Realism. So the bresiteers are already talking about the Constitutional problems involved in the Lords eviscerating their wilder flights of lunacy.
It's all mad fun and keeps the hacks reporting on it in wine and caviar, but I rather suspect that there's a path through this mess that will leave more or less everything in place as it is now.
Unless there really is a Commons backbench rebellion, May is deposed, Ree-Smogg is installed as PM. At which point I think we're back to nuking Brusssels
keep to the Fen Causeway
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