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In story: Opinion polling and the French Elections

Final outcome: Pollsters get it right
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Candidate  Vote  Poll average (based on graphic at top of diary)
Macron      23.9      24.0
Le Pen       21.7      22.3
Fillon         20.0      19.7
Mélenchon 19.2      18.9

All in all, a very good performance by the pollsters with Fillon and Mélenchon slightly out-performing their polls and Le Pen underperforming by the largest margin.

The second round may be more challenging to predict.  With a 25% advantage in the opinion polls at present, Macron may have difficulty motivating his supporters to vote again, and left wing voters could abstain en masse. Or will Le Pen voters become demotivated by the size of Macron's lead?

It will be interesting to see whether he maintains that lead in the polls in the run up to the second round.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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Marketing teams at media companies hardly ever understand what this means. Their jobs depend on it.

A minimum amount of daily sold copies and subscriptions is the only business model for written media to remain completely independent of commercial interests/pressures.

The increase of the agglomeration of businesses should be of concern for every media outlet still having faith in the separation between marketing and editorial desks.

by Bjinse on
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In story: Open Thread 10-23 April

Re: Open Thread 10-23 April
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Still don't know how to get Twitter to display two pictures at the same time.
by generic on
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In story: Opinion polling and the French Elections

No evidence for "Shy Le Pen" effect
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European far right parties have often underperformed their opinion poll averages.  More recently, Brexit and Trump may also have served as a salutary reminder to European voters that indulging in fantasies, not bothering to vote, or playing "lefter than thou" games can have serious consequences, and that we can't take long cherished norms or institutions like the EU for granted.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Opinion polling and the French Elections

Re: Opinion polling and the French Elections
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Américains et Anglais vont devoir désormais faire appel aux instituts de sondage français, vainqueurs du premier tour.

— bernard pivot (@bernardpivot1) April 23, 2017

The Americans and the English are going to have to use French pollsters in the future. They are the winners of the first round.

(It's true. Astonishingly, collectively, they nailed it)

by eurogreen on
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In story: French elections: First Round Open Thread

Re: Welcome to the rest of Europe France!
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As for the other question, much will depend on who wins the legislatives.
But admittedly, I do wonder how a country moves on from someone elected on personal exaltation, without stating a political direction, spending the campaign saying he agrees with everyone...

If the only possible opposition is extreme (Melenchon and Hamon are not, but are portrayed as such) then it usually benefits the right-wing version, since medias overplay terrorism and understate social unfairness. And he is bound to disappoint.

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on
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In story: French elections: First Round Open Thread

Re: Welcome to the rest of Europe France!
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True enough, but in France, the popular vote winner gets elected president. Trump is there in part thanks to the electoral college.
by Bernard on
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In story: French elections: First Round Open Thread

Re: Welcome to the rest of Europe France!
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Suppose Macron wins. What will happen in five years if Macron turns out another lame duck? This has got the potential to propel Le Pen over the finish line.

Or France actually experiences an actual economic upswing (they come and go, no one knows why). Macron could claim credit. But then again Trump followed Obama...

by epochepoque on
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Meanwhile, in Germany: Petry out of AfD lead for not being far-right enough.

Cologne unites against fractured AfD - DW

A tense, divided party had little they were able to decide on - except what they wouldn't decide on: namely, the fate of alleged neo-Nazi Björn Höcke, and co-chair Frauke Petry's strategy for the future.

The latter dealt a crushing blow to Petry, who of late has tried subtly to make the AfD a more "realistic choice for German voters." The majority decision not to debate her strategy was a rejection of Petry and a clear choice to follow the more far-right voices in the party. Even as she opened the conference, to both claps and boos, an exhausted-looking Petry already had tears in her eyes.

She promptly made good on her promise to step back from the forefront of the AfD, despite being its most recognizable face ahead of key elections. Calling the decision to deny her plan for the party's future a "mistake," she said it was time that "others should lead" but that she would remain an active party member.

Germany's anti-immigrant AfD party picks top candidates - DW

Delegates to the widely-protested congress in Cologne of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party chose Gauland and Weidel Sunday after Petry failed on Saturday to moderate the party's role. Gauland is widely regarded as the AfD's lead tactician and advocate of right-wing nationalism.

The 600 delegates voted by 67.7 percent to endorse Potsdam-based Gauland, 76, who once had various roles in Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrat (CDU) party, especially in Hesse in the late-80s, and Weidel from the AfD's Baden-Württemberg branch.

by Bernard on
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In story: French elections: First Round Open Thread

Welcome to the rest of Europe France!
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At long last, the third way reaches France, with an imploded social democratic party and voters having the choice of propping up reform marketistas or frothing rabid populists. Just lovely.

An advice from the frontline: stock up on painkillers. It's going to get worse.

by Bjinse on
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In story: French elections: First Round Open Thread

Re: French elections: First Round Open Thread
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First estimates on French TV at 20:00.

Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 21.7%

Fillon & Mélenchon tied at 19.5%. Hamon at 6.5%.

by Bernard on
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Le Soir mentions "two concordant sources showing Macron ahead" with a "tight race" for the second place.
by Bernard on
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It's rumoured to be very tight for second place, with Le Pen or Mélenchon in second place.

In either case, according to the conventional wisdom, Macron wins the second round easily.

by eurogreen on
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Again, RTBF didn't provide their source (sources, plural?) and it is not one of the nine main French polling firms who agreed not to perform exit polls (see above). First "official" estimates by 20:00.
by Bernard on
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although these days an awful lot of people seem to be able to do a convincing pastiche of it

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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In story: 17 - 23 April 2017

Re: March for Science
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I dislike that last poster because a religionist can say it about the existence of their god with equal conviction.

I prefer "it can be demonstrated and repeated" instead of "it's true"

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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In story: French elections: First Round Open Thread

Re: French elections: First Round Open Thread
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... note that polls close at 19:00 / 20:00 (in small/big towns) instead of 18:00 / 19:00 in previous elections. This may boost the final numbers.

I'll be offline for half an hour around 8pm, I'm going to help with the count in my booth.

by eurogreen on
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In story: French elections: First Round Open Thread

Re: French elections: First Round Open Thread
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Tribune de Genève reporting:

A 69,42%, la participation à 17h est inférieure à celle de 2012 et 2007


by ATinNM on
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RTBF has been challenged on Twitter as to where their estimates come from; their reply, FWIW:

by Bernard on
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According to RTBF, a first poll estimate shows:
Macron 24%

Le Pen 22%

Fillon 20,5%

Mélenchon 18%

However, as highlighted by Le Soir, there was no precision as to the source of RTBF data, nor the method used for these estimates. Moreover, the main nine French polling firms have agreed, with the French National Polling Commission, not to do any exit polls but rather to compile estimates based on the first 200 effective votes counted in 500 polling stations after 19:00; estimates shouldn't be available until 19:30-19:45.

More than ever, caveat emptor.

by Bernard on
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In story: French elections: First Round Open Thread

Re: French elections: First Round Open Thread
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69.4% nationally (70.6% in 2012)

by eurogreen on
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In story: French elections: First Round Open Thread

Re: French elections: First Round Open Thread
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66.8% voting rate in the Rhone department at 5pm. That's a bit low, actually.

by eurogreen on
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In story: Open Thread 10-23 April

Re: Open Thread 10-23 April
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Clermont Ferrant 15 - 3 Leinster, in the semi final of the European Cup, playing in Lyon (I missed out on tickets, snapped up by the Clermont supporters, only a couple of hours' drive from home)

A disappointing score given how poor the Irish have been. I exoect they'll e more sprightly in the second half...

by eurogreen on
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In story: Opinion polling and the French Elections

Re: Opinion polling and the French Elections
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My impression (backed by polling data) is that those favouring Macron and Le Pen have been the most highly motivated and sure of their vote; late-deciding voters may be hesitating between the mainstream left (or right) candidate and the minor ones. That would (in my dreams at least) tend to favour Mélenchon and Fillon.
The "useful vote" phenomenon can work both ways on the left : in favour of Mélenchon, at the expense of Hamon and the minor candidates, or in favour of Macron. My personal propaganda line is that this second option is a "second round" position, that no-one on the left should vote for Macron in the first round... We'll see.

It seems actually that turnout is fairly average :


by eurogreen on
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benefits democracy...
by Bjinse on
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But he also underlines large error margins: FN last polled between 17 and 28 %.

by Bjinse on
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In story: Opinion polling and the French Elections

Re: Opinion polling and the French Elections
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A high turnout would benefit Macron?

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: French elections: First Round Open Thread

Re: French elections: First Round Open Thread
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Voting rate: noon time.

As of 12:00 local time, 28.54% of registered voters have cast their ballot (including yours truly). This is about the same percentage as the last presidential elections in 2012.

As eurogreen noted, there were still about 25% of "undecided" voters and it will be interesting to see where they may finally lean to (or decide not to vote altogether).

by Bernard on
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One of the main concerns on this election day is the possibility of an attack against polling stations, especially after last Thursday attack on the Champs Elysées. Two stations were "briefly closed" in Besançon earlier today, due to "a suspicious vehicle" parked nearby. Voting operations have resumed now.

A similar incident happened yesterday in New-York where the NYPD evacuated the French consulate, also due to a "suspicious vehicle".

by Bernard on
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In story: Opinion polling and the French Elections

Re: Opinion polling and the French Elections
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yeah, that article was published yesterday at 3pm.

If anyone sees any polling from today, I'm interested. Particularly any indication as to which way the "undecided" (still at least 25% yesterday) are breaking.

by eurogreen on
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News and Views

 17 - 23 April 2017

by Bjinse - Apr 17, 23 comments

Your take on this week's news

 10 - 16 April 2017

by Bjinse - Apr 10, 23 comments

Your take on this week's news

 Open Thread 10-23 April

by Bjinse - Apr 10, 37 comments

If you donít thread, nothing ever happens at all

 Open Thread 3-9 April

by Bjinse - Apr 3, 22 comments

Every thread desires to live long, but no thread wishes to be old

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