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UK Snap Election.

by Colman Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 10:28:43 AM EST

So May has called a snap election in the UK for June 8th. As if the situation wasn't unstable enough.

 How long is two months in politics?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 10:28:51 AM EST
I posted a diary on the same, could you delete it please as I've forgotten how

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 10:35:37 AM EST
And Labour immediately say they will vote in favour. Disappointing - May had spent months saying she was against it, the law had been changed to make parliament a fixed term... and at the first opportunity, all this is reverted, yet Labour do not point out the hypocrisy...

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 10:57:26 AM EST
Gosh, so much to untangle.

I think this is all about internal Tory party politics. She talks about wanting to get all her brexit legislation through, yet she has a working majority of 20.

So, this means that she fears a sufficient minority of Tories will not support some of all of the brexit negotiating positions she wishes to adopt.

Also, as somebody noted, this is a rather extreme way of avoiding the investigations into electoral fraud from the 2015 GE, of which there are an embarrasingly large number.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 11:13:09 AM EST
My instInct is that if LD do well on a remain platform and Tory majority increases that it improves odds of a fig leaf Brexit.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 11:27:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Lib Dems are apparently first to start up the campaign machine.
by Gag Halfrunt on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 01:35:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Party thoughts. Bearing in mind that I resigned as a political predictor after last year where I went 0 for 2 big time.

The tories have to win big. They have a colossal lead in the polls; anything less than a 100 majority will, perversely, be seen as a defeat.

The Lib Dems will win big. They should at least recover back to the 50 they accumulated under NuLab. They are the only consistently pro-Remain party in England and will campaign hard in areas that were remain.

The SNP have nowhere to go really, they have nearly every seat. It's unlikely there will be any substantive change in representation in Scotland.

Labour. Oh dear. Anything could happen. It is entirely possible they could be destroyed electorally as the LibDems were last time. It is also possible (although less so), if they campaign effectvely against austerity, the NHS, pensions and benefits (and effectively is the key word), that they might eat into the Tory majority.

Theirs is the wild card.

Given my recent form I am reluctant but here's my view of what will happen;-

Tories will gain 30 - 50 seats

LibDems will gain 50 - 100 seats.

Labour destroyed

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 11:22:15 AM EST
Hi everyone. What is exactly the goal of this election? Is it just May seeking popular legitimacy? The damage is done...

Like Asterix would say: these English are crazy!

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 04:43:20 PM EST
To get the mandate for a hard Brexit. Seeing that they'll get even more of a majority, LibDems and decimated Labour will be reduced to empty gesturing during the negotiation process. It will create a bit more weight for May vis-a-vis the EU side but that's something more volatile than the domestic dominance of the Tories. After the election maybe a cabinet reshuffle with Boris out?!

Steely forward to the end or something.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 05:08:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I suspect that Boris and Liam Fox have been given plenty of rope to hang themselves and may find themselves ushered to the sidelines after. Especially if she can get some genuine legal negotiating experience from new MPs.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 05:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
May wants to increase her majority so that her programme for brexit cannot be derailed by backbench protest.

Equally, the house of Lords is able to vote down any legislation that was not in the previous election manifesto. That was Cameron's manifesto which had different priorities to what she wants. Also, it meant that anything related to brexit could be defeated cos, apart from the referendum, Dave didn't mention brexit at all.

So she gets the mandate she wants and the backing she needs with the ability to ram it through the House of Lords

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 05:13:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"That was Cameron's manifesto which had different priorities to what she wants."

I read Cameron's 10 Nov 15 "4 Goal EU reform" letter to the EU.

Tell us, how the message differs from May's "Brexit means Brexit" milquetoast A50 declaration. Is her expression of irreconcilable differences with EU confederation any different than those of Cameron?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Apr 19th, 2017 at 02:47:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Political Scrapbook - Claims May called an election to escape Tory expenses scandal

The official line is that Theresa May called the general election on June 8 to win a stronger hand in Brexit negotiations. But some political observers have suggested she has an ulterior motive - burying the Tory election expenses scandal.

The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) is currently investigating claims that up to 20 Tory MPs broke constituency spending limits at the 2015 general election.

The Tories are alleged to have committed "election fraud" by registering spending on a national bus tour, accommodation for activists and staffing costs, as national spending rather than local spending - meaning many candidates may have gone over spending limits.

The CPS are due to give their verdict on the allegations at the end of next month or the beginning of June - a coincidence that hasn't escape Channel 4 journalist Michael Crick, Guardian's Rowena Mason and Sky's Jon Craig:

This has been bubbling for some time. However, I've always been slightly skeptical that it would ever get to trial simply because that something the UK establishment allows. I doubt that will change now we are in a new election season.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 18th, 2017 at 06:42:29 PM EST
May rides high on nationalistic retardation and Labour polls miserably for lots of reasons. In a few years and a million hours of boring all night negotiation sessions that the EU loves so much even the most committed Kipper will get bored of the Brexit show and since the NHS is still being murdered Corbyn might get a lot  more traction despite all of Labour's other problems.
I'm really not surprised they are going for it now.
by generic on Wed Apr 19th, 2017 at 05:11:54 AM EST
Though this here won't change.
Three-quarters of newspaper stories about Jeremy Corbyn fail to accurately report his views, LSE study finds | The Independent -
In just 15 per cent of 812 articles analysed, Mr Corbyn's views were present but challenged, and in only 11 per cent were they present without alteration.
by generic on Wed Apr 19th, 2017 at 07:26:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Wed Apr 19th, 2017 at 10:05:06 AM EST
by generic on Wed Apr 19th, 2017 at 02:45:32 PM EST
Well, of course. The Blairite NEC has been a grotesque stitch up in the time of Corbyn

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Apr 19th, 2017 at 07:53:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow. That's huge. Hugely disheartening. So Labour grassroots renewal is stopped dead in its tracks? Just like that?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Apr 21st, 2017 at 05:23:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
tbh it won't make much difference cos, if predictions are right and Labour get creamed, then the next election, which will be very winnable, will be fought on an entirely changled set of candidates. The NEC simply cannot keep control that long.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Apr 21st, 2017 at 07:12:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by generic on Sat Apr 22nd, 2017 at 11:02:24 AM EST
the problem for religionists is that they tie themselves into knots trying to explain how the bizarre exemptions they invent to accomodate their particular prejudices aren't remotely bigoted

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Apr 24th, 2017 at 08:54:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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