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British Election Update

by Zwackus Sun May 28th, 2017 at 02:18:09 AM EST

It seems that yet another election campaign built on inevitability is sputtering and gasping in the home stretch. Just a few weeks ago, pundits were wondering whether Labour would lose as badly as it did in 1983 ... or worse. The polls around then suggested that Labour would be lucky to do as well as in that epic defeat. Oh, what a difference a few weeks can make.

Front paged - Frank Schnittger


Elections 2017: Poll tracker shows how Labour has steadily eroded Conservative lead

With less than three weeks to go until polling day, the Conservatives' lead over Labour has been steadily narrowing.

The Independent's poll tracker, which charts the overall trend by taking an average of all mainstream polls, shows Theresa May's party still commands a 10-point lead.

However, the Labour Party has increased its average rating by nine points since the Prime Minister called a snap election, to 34.5 per cent - their best showing in the polls since November last year.

Thank you, horserace reporter. Now on to market analysis.

DOOM!

Pound sterling falls to lowest level since April after Labour slashes Tory lead in latest election poll

The pound suffered its biggest one-day slide in around three weeks on Friday after a new poll showed that Labour had slashed the Conservatives' lead to just five points ahead of next month's general election.

At the London stock market close the pound was more than 1 per cent lower against the dollar, at $1.2787, its lowest level since the end of April.

On the one hand, Corbyn's Labour is obviously a bunch of scary Commies who want to take all the gold and burn the city to the ground, so of course the markets panic. On the other hand, a giant lead for May would, in theory, give her the leverage to tell her Brexit-crazies to shove it, and negotiate a better deal. In theory. A rather doubtful theory, in my opinion, but then again I know nothing.

British Pound: Potential Election Outcomes and their Impacts on the Exchange Rate

If this swing were replicated across the country then Theresa May's majority would be slashed to just two. If current trends continue into polling day Jeremy Corbyn will be in office and the UK will be looking at an unprecendented programme of nationalisations and increased public spending.

The idea was that a strong Conservative win in the upcoming General Election will boost the Pound has been prevalent ever since Sterling rallied in the wake of Theresa May's call for a snap election back in April.

A strong majority will grant May flexibility and allow for a benign transition period once Brexit negotiations complete.

The Guardian sees doom ahead, unwilling to believe in New Old Labour.

It seems crazy to argue that the election will be determined by the economy when events have focused the electorate's attention on national security and the judgment of the main political leaders.

Last year's Brexit vote illustrated many things, among them the propensity of voters to disregard short-term effects on their personal finances in favour of high ideals for a better world, whatever they felt that to be.

Yet the economy looms large in the background of this election and could still play a major role in determining the outcome. And fortunately for Theresa May, the trends of the last few months play into her party's hands. For Labour, jitters over Britain's economic outlook only makes the mountain harder to climb.

Oddly, the author seems to contradict himself before the article even gets going. Hrmn. A revealing tidbit from later in the article shows his target audience clearly.

Looking back over the last seven years, it is easy to see that the feelgood days that came after the summer of 2014 were generated by a sugar rush of low oil prices, low-cost imports and plentiful cheap labour.

Yes, I too feel optimistic when there is a surplus of plentiful and cheap Labour. Why, it just makes me start salivating over all those jobs I could create! Ahem.

Corbyn went back on the campaign trail recently, after a brief hiatus following the Manchester bombing. John Crace can't quite believe that Corbyn didn't stuff things up, and seems kind of sad. Jeremy Corbyn takes security risk and confounds critics | John Crace | Politics

With Tory candidates hastily erasing the Supreme Leader from their campaign leaflets and Labour candidates having to backtrack a little on their promise that it was OK for people to vote for them as there was no chance of them winning the election, Corbyn chose to resume campaigning after the Manchester bombing with a speech in central London on national security.

...

It was the one of very few point-scoring digs at the Conservatives in the entire speech as, for the most part, he chose to rise above party politics. He didn't seek to blame anyone but the bomber for the Manchester attack, only to try to provide a context for it and ended with the hope that the final two weeks of the election campaign could be conducted without name-calling or playing party politics. That was dashed within minutes when the defence secretary, Michael Fallon, took to the airwaves to condemn him for a speech he hadn't made. Corbyn left without taking any questions. There would be more than enough of them from Andrew Neil later in the evening.

Unusually, Neil lobbed Corbyn a gentle loosener to start with by sounding incredulous that the Labour leader was making a link between terrorism and British foreign policy. Corbyn couldn't believe his luck and used the opportunity to point out that he wasn't alone in thinking this. Boris Johnson, two heads of MI5 and the foreign affairs select committee had come to pretty much the same conclusion. Who was he to disagree with such collective wisdom?

Thoughts?

Display:
Guardian - Andrew Rawnsley - The Supreme Leader doesn't seem quite so invincible now

Ever since anyone can remember, there have been complaints that British elections have become "too presidential". Back in the 1970s, when the principals were Ted Heath and Harold Wilson, their duel was ridiculed as "a man with a boat and a man with a pipe".

So this spring's contest, with its relentless focus on the woman with the bag and the man with the beard, is not so much a new development as the culmination of a long-established trend. This was by Tory design because making it a personality contest was supposed to be to their benefit. The name of Theresa May is emblazoned on her campaign coach in lettering so enormous that it probably can be seen from outer space. The word Conservative is a microscopic footnote. The Tory campaign has been organised around the projection of the Supreme Leader to the virtual exclusion of every other member of the cabinet. Even Margaret Thatcher in her pomp would share appearances with her ministers. Mrs May has granted just the one "podium moment" to a member of the cabinet when she appeared alongside Philip Hammond and conspicuously failed to reassure the chancellor that he was safe in his job.

I, myself and me. That is how she likes to start her sentences. She asks for an enlarged majority to "give me a mandate" to negotiate Brexit. "I offer myself as your prime minister" - no nonsense about being the captain of a team. When she launched her programme, it was "my manifesto for Britain's future", words that soon came back to haunt her when one of its key policies began to unravel.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 09:51:08 AM EST
I, myself and me. That is how she likes to start her sentences.

Just what Britain needs ... it's own Trump.  But can she start a nuke war with N. Korea? Huh huh?  

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 09:11:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Every country needs its own Trmp.  And soon will have one or two or three or multitudes of them.

Solar IS Civil Defense
by gmoke on Thu Jun 1st, 2017 at 09:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trumpfestations!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 05:48:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
tbh, last week's bomb blast came at a bad time for the Labour Party. They were buidling up considerable momentum after the Care Home gaffe in the Tory manifesto and looked set to hammer them hard.

Sadly, everything has stalled and given the tories the chance to re-consider their game plan while Labour possibly lost their best oportunity.

That said, Rawnsley is right; in this Presidential election, Theresa May has been the one making the unforced errors.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 09:59:43 AM EST
May has been hopeless. As expected, she has revealed herself to be an over-ambitious kook who Peter Principled herself into Number 10.

Except for near-infinite if rather nervy ambition and an authoritarian streak as wide as the M1, she has none of the skills needed for competence in politics - such as being charming and personable, intelligent, strategically gifted, and not an alien vampire from a Hollywood hell dimension overly attached to a wardrobe chosen by unemployed clowns.

If she was any more tone deaf she could be leading a boy band. The more people see, the less they like.

As one of the innumerable pundits who litter social media pointed out, the last time there was a swing this big before an election was 1945. That didn't end well for the Tories.

The scale of her inability to campaign with even the tiniest hint of competence is really quite surreal. She has been driving around the country in the battle bus - with exquisite irony, the same bus used by the Remain campaign - hosting "rallies" of literally tens of hand-picked faithful, who are all bused with her to hilariously remote locations from which the public and most of the press are excluded.

She tried to make "Strong and Stable" a talking point, but she did it so ineptly it became a viral joke.

She pigeon-holed Macron at their last meeting and tried to start a "So - about these negotiations..." conversation. He immediately said "non", and this left her completely non-plussed, as if she really hadn't expected it might be a likely response.

Of course she may still win, because too many British voters are too misinformed - and frankly too thick - not to fall for her act. There are literally tens of millions of voters whose higher brain functions are so atrophied that they have decided she will "Do the right thing", in spite the evidence suggesting that she couldn't find the right thing if someone handed it to her on a golden cushion with a "This is the right thing" label tied around it after a Wagnerian trumpet fanfare.

Will she definitely win? No one knows.

I no longer expect intelligent decisions from the British electorate - or at least not from enough of the British electorate to make a difference.

On the other hand, there has been a huge, unprecedented leap in first-time voter registrations, and most of them aren't May fans.

The Tories have been showing signs of desperation - spamming social media with ads and sending out a troll army to try to influence voters. There's a solid push to vote tactically against them - which is encouraging, but not necessarily enough.

Whatever happens, the country continues to be hopelessly fractured - the idiotically tribal mostly older, mostly poorly educated, but insufferably smug and condescending Tory faithful, at loggerheads with the mostly younger, mostly professional, more tentative and questioning cosmopolitans.

One pundit - Robert Peston - has suggested May has misread the mood. There are now enough people sick of food banks, austerity, threats to the NHS, threats to the police and other services, Brexit inflation, murdered disabled people, people who are declared fit for work who die a few weeks later, and terrorist attacks to swing the vote in favour of a less North Korean political approach.

Let's hope.

The reality is that - as usual - the result will be decided in a hundred or so marginals, and everything else is noise.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 11:50:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you have the time, it would be great if you could re-work this comment into a diary to adorn our front page...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 12:17:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agreed. I can link punditry ... and not much more.
by Zwackus on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 03:11:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I saw an intriguing rumour this morning that, with Amber Rudd now more or less replacing Theresa May in any situation where unscripted pre-vetted questions are possible, that May might step down after the election.

I think your comment about the Peter pinciple may well be correct and May has been found wanting in many situations where a calm unharried approach is favoured. She has probably realised it and the numerous photos of her strange facial expressions can't all be bad moments, it's like regular photographers have clued in to what sets her off and are queuing up to get the shot. This suggests she knows shes not up to it.

She couldn't just resign and let a new leadership contest happen because, frankly, the last one destroyed the credibillity of everyone who took part. So, this could be a planned "clean slate" election.

She wins what was supposed to be an easy victory and then resigns, leaving emerging talent, in this case Rudd, to build a case for their election.

Of course, the theory breaks down a little bit in that May was supposed to bleat "strong and stable" all the way with everybody else kept out of the limelight and no chance for Rudd or Patel (god forbid) to step forward.

So, whilst this is one of those wild internet rumours that's almost certainly based on nothing more than a cheese inflected dream, there's a strangely attractive logic to it

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 09:51:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
May will release her grip on power when her fingers are prised off it with crowbars and not one second before.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 10:45:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This election was supposed to be a procession to a 100 seat majority. With the polls as they are, I suspect the grandees have already been to see her

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 11:17:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My guess too.

Dimbleby accused the media of anyti-Corbyn bias yesterday, so I'm wondering what's going on there - it's  a bit like Satan accusing the home help of turning the heating up too high.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 03:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe the ex-Bullingdon Tory boy is trying to hang on to the last tatters of his alleged BBC impartiality by a faux day late dollar short protest about how nasty everybody is being.

Or maybe some people in the BBC are getting worried about blowback if Corbyn wins. It's not just the long list of tory personalities in the senior ranks at BBC News, it's the almost complete absence of any Labour people.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 03:34:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was thinking about this today, after a Tory troll had a go at me for pointing out the obvious Tory bias.

The bias is absolutely unquestionable. As you say, there are exactly zero household name BBC journalists who aren't Tory supporters.

Labour gets some support among comedians and other entertainers, but the mainstream news teams have become a Tory closed shop.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 12:23:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for confirming my suspicions. That is the sort of development that occurs before some major development.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 05:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mainly Macro - Simon Wren-Lewis - Theresa May

The Conservative plan for this election was for it to be about personalities rather than policies. Theresa May versus Jeremy Corbyn. The question that the Conservatives want people to be thinking about as they cast their vote is which of the two do you think will be better at negotiating a good Brexit deal for Britain. And the polls suggest that many have made up their mind the answer is May.

Making a choice based on personalities may not be a completely stupid thing to do. However people with little knowledge can be extremely poor judges of character. I shouldn't really have to argue the case for this, but simply point to the current POTUS. How anyone could believe that he would improve the healthcare system and sort out the financial sector is beyond me, but then I had read a lot about him so it is difficult for me to imagine what someone less interested in politics might think. But we know in other situations that brief contacts can be very misleading: job interviews are an obvious example, as are interviews of prospective students. We think we can judge character with very little information, and we often fool ourselves in that respect.

Or take, as an another example, Theresa May. Some of us may laugh at the endless repetition of `strong and stable', but good propaganda is always based on a half-truth, and the half truth here is that many voters do think she is a cautious operator and a safe pair of hands. It is likely most people get this belief not from a detailed examination of her past actions, but from how she comes across in sound bites and interviews on the TV.

The reality seems rather different. Her actions since becoming Prime Minister appear ill-judged and reckless. Take, for example, the pointless attempt to prevent parliament voting on Article 50. A strong and stable Prime Minister would (with a small amount of research) have realised that very few MPs within her party were prepared to be seen to ignore the referendum, and that therefore she would easily get her way. Instead she fought and lost a pointless battle in the courts. It had not been the first time she had wasted public money in this way.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 03:14:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It links to an old Telegraph article about May's catalogue of errors at the Home office and her personal failings that is truly extraordinary.

Media Guido - jonathan Foreman - Read in Full : Article Pulled in full by Telegraph after pressure from May Camapign

eproduced in full below is a Telegraph article by Jonathan Foreman* headlined "Theresa May is a great self-promoter, but a terrible Home Secretary", which was pulled after pressure from her campaign. It is excoriating........


keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 03:28:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Amber Rudd is actually standing in for Theresa May in the leaders' debate. Streaming at http://bbcelection.twitter.com

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 06:37:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Amber Rudd is actually standing in for Theresa May two days after Rudd's father died.

The Sun has tried to play the sympathy card to excuse Rudd's woeful performance, but the more people learn about the background story the angrier they get.

This has exploded all over FB and Twitter. Even hardcore Tory voters are appalled.

May has become That Shitty Heartless Boss Who Drops You In It. I don't think she can recover from this.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 09:33:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And, to underline the confusion the Tories have felt over tryin gto smear Corbyn with terrorism, Michael Fallon made a complete arse of himself here.



keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 10:03:23 AM EST
I'll have to see those words....

Going for the retard defense I see.

by generic on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 04:50:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On the morning Marr Show, the paper review had some polling in the Sun which was laughably biased. Showing that trust for Corbyn was down at Trumpian levels.

Yet nobody in the media seems able, or willing, to explain why there is a genuine enthusiasm for Corbyn that is absolutely NOT reflected in the media. Here the social media campaign by Labour seems to be wiping the floor with the Tories, yet remaining entirely under the mainstream media radar.

I'm sure I could find some Tory stuff if I went looking for it, but I have enough friends on the other side of the aisle that I'd see at least some of it if it was turning up in their feeds. But I'm not.

Equally, I'd agree with Rawnsley that monstering Corbyn isn't going to work, he's had 2 years of it and it just doesn't work anymore. Not even the undecided trust the msm view of Corbyn.

It's getting to the point where one of the main pleasures of contemplating the current state of the election will be all the egg over the Blairite's faces. Having spent 2 years telling everyone who'd listen (and shouting at the backs of those who were running away from their bs) that Corbyn was a loser, this is already going to be about as good a result as you cold hope for. Anything better and I'd want to see Polly Toynbee ashen-face of shame and humiliation for myself  

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 10:15:57 AM EST
The Tories are so hapless they can't even work a classic Saudi intervention. They are now officially dumber than G.W.'s guys.
by generic on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 12:17:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another Angry Voice - Beware of Tory Dark Ads

We all know that the Tories are bankrolled by a rogue's gallery of right-wing billionaires and that they're awash with cash for this general election right?

We also know that they have absolute contempt for the electoral rules after they deliberately misdeclared expenses at the 2015 general election don't we?

We also know the increasingly important role big data is playing in elections, and how psychological profiling and targeted social media adverts helped to swing the EU referendum and the 2016 US election right?

Tory dark ads

Well what the Tories have been up to during the 2017 general election is absolutely shocking. They've been creating all kinds of fearmongering shock adverts, paying Facebook to target them at people, and refusing to provide examples to the Electoral Commission of what they've been sending out.

What is worse is that in the days before the voter registration deadline they used their secretive dark ads to deliberately undermine a young adult voter registration drive, by replacing the voter registration adverts with their own nasty smear jobs on Jeremy Corbyn.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 12:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And more on that subject, with examples;-

Vox Political - Mike Sivier - Voters in marginal constituencies targeted by dirty Tory `dark' adverts

The Conservatives have found another way to cheat national election spending limits - on Facebook, it seems.

They have been using Facebook's advertising system, which demands that users `bid' for the limited number of slots available, to drown out others and force `dark' adverts, filled with lies, on readers.

There is no regulation of this behaviour.

Delyn, where the Tories' dirty trick was discovered, is a marginal constituency held by Labour's David Hanson - but he will lose it if there is a swing of just 3.9 per cent to the Conservatives.

And the Tories are feeding Delyn Facebook users lies about a nonexistent `Death Tax' (fabricated in an Express article), and about Labour increasing taxes for everybody (in fact, 95 per cent of earners will not be affected; only the top five per cent would have to pay more).



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 01:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian - Carole Cadwallader - Revealed: Tory `dark' ads targeted voters' Facebook feeds in Welsh marginal seat

The Observer has obtained a series of Conservative party attack ads sent to voters last week in the key marginal constituency of Delyn, north Wales. Activists captured the ads using dummy Facebook accounts after finding that their own ad - encouraging young people to register to vote - were being "drowned out" by the Tory ads.

The Conservatives have refused to supply examples of adverts the party is sending to individual voters on Facebook, despite growing concern over unregulated online election activity.

Following a series of articles in the Observer concerning the use of data by Vote Leave and Leave.EU during last year's referendum, the Information Commissioner's Office has launched a wide-ranging investigation over possible breaches of UK data laws.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 01:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian mourns Corbyn's polling surge -
   "It was always going to be the case that the polls would narrow during the course of the campaign, as Labour's policies received greater media exposure, but the YouGov poll implies that public opinion is more volatile."

It sounds almost as though the Guardian, which has been denigrating Corbyn since his election as Labour leader nearly two years ago (along with the rest of the British media), does not want him to win. Let's put that another way. It's almost as though Britain's only supposedly left-liberal newspaper would prefer that May and the Conservatives won. This, let us remind ourselves, is the same Conservative party that has made the once-surging, far-right UKIP party largely redundant by adopting many of its ugliest policies.

by generic on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 06:02:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian mourns Corbyn's polling surge -
[May] presumes her credentials to do the top job speak for themselves. But she does not have a long record of achievement to justify that confidence. The Tories have gambled everything on the effectiveness of their messenger. They need a more substantial message.
by generic on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 06:04:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the Guardian finds itself in a bit of difficulty; its senior editorial staff are all creatures of what Westminster imagines is the soft left.

Which mostly equates to the Blairite neoconservative attitude of being fiscally conservative with a certain level of liberal social support to ease the pain their policies inflict. Not to comfort the poor. Obviously. But just enough alms to salve their conscience.

But it's more than that. They hate Corbyn personally. Mostly they have branded him as a loser who will fail to win the election and thus doom the middle and working classes to 5 more years of Conservatism. For 2 years my FB feed has been filled with the screams of the haters telling anyone who will listen that making Corbyn leader was a betrayal of Labour's hopes.

Right now, he's doing well enough to make them choke on it. And that makes them hate him even more. Because hes stripping away their excuse and forcing them to admit that the real reason they hate him is not that he is a loser. It is that the political ideology in which they believe is that which has failed. If increasing Blairism was rewarded with fewer votes, then their bleats of "just a little more conservatism will seal the deal" stands revealed as the bullshit it always was.

He is demonstrating that their life's work was worthless. that's why they hate. Not because he's a loser, but because he isn't.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 08:24:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why "almost"?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 09:18:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
cos that's the sarcasm signifier

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 09:23:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yet nobody in the media seems able, or willing, to explain why there is a genuine enthusiasm for Corbyn that is absolutely NOT reflected in the media. Here the social media campaign by Labour seems to be wiping the floor with the Tories, yet remaining entirely under the mainstream media radar.

It's because by not being mediagenic and still getting voter registration without their blessing he makes them look like the out-of-touch, biased fools they are.
He takes back the power they insisted on controlling, making them come to him now so they don't come across as even more irrelevant.
Media has been used to influence old voters to vote for middle-aged politicians.
Now young people sign up in droves for an elderly man, in spite of the MSM's best efforts to smear him into oblivion.
The increasing terrorist attacks make her look weak, her efforts to diminish Corbyn make her look petty and unsportsmanlike, and she has no disarming charm to elegantly play the overdog, reverting to rabid at every opportunity, (when the public love the underdog).
Her cowardice in not debating Corbyn flies in the face of her 'strong' image, and her wobbly meltdowns when interviews have gone internationally viral, making the 'stable' pitch ludicrous.
I wish Corbyn would attack her for her flagrant conflict of interest with her husband's financing arms deals which she helped broker, and her appalling handling of Libya as Foreign Secretary, (the shenanigans with the 'Manchester Boys').

Then we'd see some serious sparks fly.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 09:37:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The purpose of media was always propaganda, no?

1917 was hard time for the European nations: Germany and Austria-Hungary were disintegrating no less harshly than Russia... The French army was collapsing after the failed Nivelle offensive... The way of life in Britain was vastly unbecoming for the greatest empire on Earth... Yet only Russia saw revolutions. Two reasons: crappy tsarist propaganda, and opportune Bolshevik leadership.

by das monde on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 10:35:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 04:36:16 PM EST
Delusion setting : 11

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 04:37:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Vote Leave EU Referendum vote was, above all, an anti-establishment vote - a vote quickly and unashamedly appropriated for the Tory party by May's brazen about turn on the EU. Corbyn's much more nuanced and equivocal approach did not go down well with the baying mob.

But the more May has governed, the more it has become clear to all and sundry that she IS the establishment.  So how are those disillusioned with the status quo going to vote now? If May has achieved anything, it is the annihilation of UKIP, ably assisted by UKIP themselves.

So the Labour party, under Corbyn is once again the sole alternative anti-establishment party. I had thought the LIB Dems might mop up much of the Remain vote, but their craven collaboration with the Tories is too recent a memory for those unhappy with the status quo.

Corbyn has become, or has been made to become, the living embodiment of  the anti-establishment sentiment which animated the Brexit and Trump campaigns. No wonder the Guardian hates him. He has exposed them as the craw-thumping Tory lite party they truly are.

He will most probably not win, but he has done all an opposition leader could have done in the most difficult of circumstances.  Hopefully he will now succeed in transforming the Labour Party into something truly representing an alternative to TINA May.

Things could get really interesting if May fails to secure an overall majority - still a long shot in my view.  A coalition of Labour, the Lib Dems, SNP, (and perhaps even Sinn Fein if they took their seats) could negotiate Brexit in good faith and put the outcome of the negotiations to a second referendum - all the while promising the SNP and Sinn Fein referenda in Scotland and Northern Ireland if the Leave vote carried the day.

Conservatives and Unionists would then be faced with a clear choice - stay in the EU on renegotiated terms or lose the UK. Corbyn would also be seeking a very different EU than the Cameron negotiation - one replacing neo-liberal market dogma with a more interventionist and egalitarian EU.

A win win for both the UK and the EU.  Unfortunately most probably still a pipe dream.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun May 28th, 2017 at 07:51:27 PM EST

The Mail feels somehow less invested in the Tory campaign than the Guardian.
by generic on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 11:11:47 AM EST
The Mail is whipping up panic to get their vote out.

the guardian is dismissing it to keep the Labour vote down

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 11:18:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There are astonishing postings all over the Remain groups from LibDems trying to push the false equivalence line that Remainers shouldn't vote Labour because Labour are a pro-Brexit party. Which makes them just as bad as the Tories.

It's absolutely true that Corbyn seems committed to Brexit, which is not a recommendation. But the LDs seem to think Corbyn's negotiated Brexit, with a commitment to protect worker rights and keep economic damage to a minimum, is a bigger threat to world peace and prosperity than May's threatened insane nuclear Brexit.

It honestly makes me wonder if the LDs are an Establishment front designed to split the progressive vote. That's always been their effect, all the way back to the days when they were the Soc Dems. 2010 doesn't exactly argue against that theory.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 03:10:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fortunately the LibDems are pretty much irrelevant in this election. Few seem to have forgiven them for the coalition.

Equally, just as the Tories thought this election was about brexit, the LibDems seem to have made the same mistake; neither realising that the UK electorate view it as a done deal and are moving on to other more pressing matters such as housing, jobs the NHS etc etc.

But yes, with the Orange Bookers still in the ascendancy, their neoliberal fervour is even greater than that of the Blairites, but with far less interst of those who lose out. Frankly right now there are 9 too many LibDem MPs and I hope we will soon see an end to them.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 03:41:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's absolutely true that Corbyn seems committed to Brexit, which is not a recommendation. But the LDs seem to think Corbyn's negotiated Brexit, with a commitment to protect worker rights and keep economic damage to a minimum, is a bigger threat to world peace and prosperity than May's threatened insane nuclear Brexit.

Brexit is the main mess he'd have to address, and he would do it with the dignity needed to get a genuinely mutually beneficial outcome.
He's characterially unprovocative, temperate in his arguments, and eminently reasonable.

He will not pull the bad faith capers the UK is so notorious in Europe for, and would help create a fairer, more equitable unity, supposing anyone there will listen.
He's humble without being ingratiating, calm but firm, a steady hand on the tiller.
Meanwhile the Tories are running out of dirty tricks they can use under the radar, (now this FB scam is exposed). Thanks to social media hot-wiring public opinion with increasing effect, the young are especially drawn to his chilled vibe. Concerned, tenacious and grounded is how he comes across, but above all genuine.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 09:53:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Proposed-UK-candidates.pdf -
Nick Clegg
was Deputy Prime Minister in Britain's coalition government from 2010 to 2015, Leader of the Liberal Democrats from 2007 to 2015, and has been Liberal Democrat MP for Sheffield Hallam since 2005. Previously an MEP, he is currently LD Shadow Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union and LD Shadow Secretary of State for International Trade.  He says Britain is now run by an unaccountable cabal coordinating Brexit on behalf of the financial sector.  In his view, the only solution to a "rotten" British democracy is on-Conservative and anti-Brexit forces coming together
after the election to create a viable opposition gainst a one-party state, for cleaner politics and for
progress. Brexit, he suggests,  brazenly ignores the interest of the younger generation and they must keep pointing out that the decision was not taken in their name.  
by generic on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 02:31:45 PM EST
Post instead preview to get rid of the  weird spaces.
The problem here is that Diem wrote up a list of 15 candidates to endorse or not endorse as a group. And Nick Clegg is on it.
by generic on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 02:33:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I understand things correctly, the list is proposed by Diem UK and can be voted up or down by the Diem membership.

My first impulse was to vote yea, simply putting my trust in the activists in UK doing something and thus it will probably be good.

But I was stumped by Clegg being on the list. If the only candidate I know of is an unprincipled veasel (as far as I know), what does that say about the list in general.

So far I haven't voted, but I am open to being persuaded either way. I honestly can't find where Diem in general discuss these things.

by fjallstrom on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 09:25:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You'd think spite alone should be enough to motivate the rump PS to knock at the Left's door. I mean the PS party leadership effectively dissolved the party and elected a new one when the votes didn't came in like they thought they should.

by generic on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 09:47:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wrong thread.
by generic on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 09:49:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I voted no and thought that was a simple decision. What I'm wondering is how the whole list is an up or down vote. Most of the people on the list seem decent but then they bring the Cleggy Bear.
by generic on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 10:07:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I voted yes for the principle, though if I were a UK elector I would be voting tactically.

I suspect Clegg made the list because Yanis needs allies if he is ever going to be President of the EU commission (spoiler: he's not.)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 11:11:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's right. It's a list of names proposed by UK DiEM (not Yanis in particular, for once), based on the fact that they are close to DiEM's principles.
Our list includes representatives from the Labour Party (6); the Liberal Democrats (2); the Scottish National Party (2); Plaid Cymru (1); the Greens (1); the Scottish greens (1); the National Health Action Party (1) and the Womens' Equality Party (1).

We're working on a similar thing in France.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 11:08:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 05:24:28 PM EST
The electable Mr Corbyn / Boing Boing -
UK Theresa May called snap UK elections (after promising not to) in order to consolidate power in her own party, shutting up the MPs who didn't fall into line with her policies -- this was the same logic behind her predecessor David Cameron's decision to call a referendum on Brexit, and both banked on the idea that the UK electorate wasn't willing to vote for an "unthinkable" alternative in order to tell the establishment to go fuck itself.
by generic on Mon May 29th, 2017 at 05:29:02 PM EST
by generic on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 06:09:11 AM EST
I just read this headline minutes ago. Really puzzling.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 06:30:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Paul Simon's dictum aplies, "a man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest".

I've seen a lot of positive comment about Corbyn's performance last night despite some puzzling questioning from Paxman which seemed to annoy the audience with his constant interruptions.

Meanwhile, his approach to May was allegedly a lot gentler and more collegiate. She was  bit wooden, but never sufficiently pressed to make an obvious mistake.

Generally I doubt last night made an ounce of difference to how people will vote.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 07:25:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Except that the very fact that Corbyn seemed reasonable, credible and statesmanlike is so much at odds with his tabloid stereotype that he is a loony left idiotic blatherer that it may give a lot of relatively low information voters pause for thought.  

May on the other hand, did nothing to energise her base or persuade the unpersuaded. There are only so many times you can get away with repeating the same mantra - "no deal is better than a bad deal"  - which leads people to expect that she will not deliver a deal - whereas Corbyn has promised he will.

Also, no one believes Labour will be able to win a majority on their own.  If they are forced to coalesce with the Lib Dems and SNP to form a government there is the prospect of second referendum on the deal, which should keep the Remainers happy.

The problem remains that the Tories only need less than 40% of the vote to gain a majority and increase their seat numbers.  Unless there is some very smart tactical voting at constituency level for the leading anti-Tory candidate, I can't see the Tories actually losing.

That is unless there is a repeat of the 1945 election where a war weary people voted to avoid having to listen to more Churchillian warmongering guff. Could May really piss people off that much?

One thing seems clear. The EU negotiators have no strong incentive to make many concessions to Theresa May, and every incentive to send her home with next to nothing. Let the pillaging of London's financial services and the UK's few remaining leading aerospace and IT companies begin...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 04:05:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem with the idea that the public perceive Corbyn as a frothing at the mouth IRA supporting commie is that the media have been going on about it for so long with almost no corroborating evidence that the public seem mostly to have arrived at the opposite conclusion.

Yes, you can find some people here and there who cite issues with Corbyn himself as their reason for not supporting him, but you invariably end up discovering that these people thought Ed miliband, Gordon Brown and even Blair were left wing beyond the pale. In other words, Corbyn hasn't lost any votes over it cos they were never gonna vote Labour anyway.

There isn't going to be another coalition, whatever the result. The Clegg/Cameron Rose Garden love-in has ensured that the idea of a formal government coalition has received the kiss of death. Corbyn has already announced he will form no coalitions and I see no reason to doubt him. If Labour are the largest party, they will attempt to negotiate a platform for Government on a case by case basis. It's not a good way to govern but it's better than the tories.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 04:48:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I used the verb coalesce lightly there - I didn't mean a formal coalition.  Sinn Fein would hardly join a government even if they did take their seats in response to a formal commitment to hold a United Ireland referendum. It would make little sense for the SNP to join a UK government if their objective is to leave the UK. The Lib Dems have just been burned by being in one.  So no, I was referring to them all voting for a Corbyn led Government in return for formal referendum commitments in each case.

Corbyn coming across as credible and reasonable has two potential benefits:  It reduces the fear factor that could drive Tory base turnout and it might encourage dissatisfied undecided voters who weren't going to vote - on the basis that it makes no difference or Labour has no hope anyway - that they do have a genuine alternative worth voting for. Corbyn was polling very badly on issues such as trust, reliability, competence etc. Now he is demonstrating the opposite and raising the morale of those who weren't going to bother to vote.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 07:46:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting discussion along this thread. However, looking at the cold numbers, it seems the Conservative party is still in for a majority of seats at Parliament. Like in the US, in the UK you do not need to reach 50% of the vote to gain your seat. Thus, a country wide vote above 40% almost certainly guarantees a majority.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 06:33:45 AM EST
yes, but the polls are in motion and nothing is yet settled. 10 days to go and it's all to play for.

Even if the Tories win, having blown a colossal lead I think May is now damaged goods and may not last long.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 07:28:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which leads to some fun scenarios.

Either the Tories are thrown into a leadership battle immediately after the election or there's a hung parliament and some sort of what we'd call a "rainbow" coalition here takes power after protracted negotiations.

Either way, assuming there isn't some miracle and the whole idea of Brexit gets binned, you're looking at delays that could push real Brexit negotiations into the autumn.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 09:30:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Looking at the polls, the Conservatives do not seem to be loosing that much, 5% at best. The real move is Labour climbing at the expense of smaller parties.

I would expect the majority to remain. However, it for sure will not deliver the "stronger hand" May was seeking.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 06:20:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It all depends on the youth vote; like with Bernie Sanders, if the young vote, Corbyn wins.

They are massively under-represented in polling but have registered to vote in massive numbers. But....it all depends on whether they turn out.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 06:26:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any plan predicated on young people turning out to vote is probably doomed to failure.

They do, indeed, turn out occasionally: Obama 2008.  But the more likely is they won't:  the US elections of 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 04:22:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yea, I aint holding my breath either, especially as the weather forecast for thursday is pretty vile, which never helps turnout

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 05:00:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would read the chart somewhat differently.  The Tories got a huge surge when the election was announced which then flattened and has now been reversed. This surge corresponds almost precisely with a precipitous decline in the UKIP vote.

Labour, on the other hand, have been climbing steadily and consistently firstly at the expense of the Lib Dems and smaller parties, and now more recently at the expense of the Tories themselves.  May's TINA narrative has clearly been shattered and all the late breaking momentum is with the Labour.

The chart doesn't show undecided voters, but I would guess much of Labour's gain has also been due to undecided voters gradually moving into their camp as the campaign progresses.  If Labour can maintain this momentum, the election could be too close to call.

However the Tories only have a tiny majority now, so almost any victory will give them some extra seats which they will tout as an endorsement of May and her approach. In the meantime the Brexit clock is ticking and I can't see any of this strengthening the Tories hand in the negotiations.

I would expect the EU negotiating team has gamed out the consequences of no deal and will be asking themselves what the UK has to offer that would be better than that.  Given the UK has offered almost nothing to date, the mantra "no deal is better than a bad deal" applies to the EU as well.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 30th, 2017 at 08:00:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The most recent YouGov poll points to a hung parliament with May losing her current slim majority.

Corbyn has achieved astounding successes against a firestorm of establishment opposition. The BBC have been nakedly biased against him, the Guardian has sniffly conceded that he's not the complete loser they said he was, but they're still not endorsing him, and he's only getting reasonable treatment from Sky (ironically...) and Channel 4.

FB trolls continue to troll, and dark ads on FB and YouTube are raining down on everyone in a marginal.

But the Tories may still be losing - which is remarkable. This was supposed to be an easy win, but now May is likely to get her P45 no matter what happens, and if there's a hung parliament the horse trading around Brexit is going to become very interesting indeed.

I wouldn't say I'm optimistic, but it's possible hasn't quite captured all of the hard core working class xenophobes she was courting. Some of them may even have realised that she's a vile person who means them harm. This insight is geographically distributed - the Midlands adore her, not so much elsewhere - but it boils down to one perception: is she a responsible and adult part of the establishment, or is she a two-fingers fuck-you fascist role model like Boris, Farage, and even Thatcher?

The xenophobes can't get enough of the latter, which is one reason Farage/UKIP became so popular. The xenophobes have the development level of angry teenagers, and they love their rebellious politically incorrect anti-heroes, to the point where they're utterly blind to their real motivations.

After flirting hard with them at the last Tory conference, it's possible May has played it too straight to win their unquestioned support in the numbers she needs. If she becomes Nanny Government instead of Maggie Fuck Off Europe it's all over for her. She absolutely needs their vote.

Corbyn is - of course - far too straight for them, and they have nothing but blistering contempt for him and all of his educated, responsible, professional, adult supporters.

But a significant proportion of the xenophobes stay at home, he wins by default, because May has already alienated the traditional older and more comfortable pensioner vote with the Dementia Tax.

With a week to go, Tory posters and flyers are not fluttering in all the usual places. There is some concern among the grandees.

There will be more name calling and general sliming from Tory HQ over the next week, but the last rumour I heard was that they're trying to focus even more on May as the lynchpin of the campaign - which makes me happy, because if they continue to be this tone deaf it can't do their chances any favours.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 12:19:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, although I see a lot of Tory posters (I'm in deepest tory Essex) even here there are fewer than normal. Equally I'm seeing Labour posters and I almost never see those here

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 07:05:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just listened to the Guardian podcast and the concesnsus view is that this is an odd election cos usually the winning party wins across the board. this time they believe that the Tories will win massively amongst the old and lose catastrophically with the young.

But the old vote and the young don't.

Also, there's a view that Labour are building up massive leads in certain constituencies but, across many that matter, they're not doing much of anything at all. So, the polls may be correct (but the tory lead is probably a lot larger amongst real voting intentions), but the geographical spread of the vote isn't helping Labour

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 03:52:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unless the young vote (Brexit) and the old don't (May and care stuff, etc). Wonder how enthusiastic the old are to get out and vote Tory this time?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 03:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well, it's just a few days away. We'll find out soon enough. I suspect that Corbyn is going on TV tonight cos he's done rather well of late and knows he need another heave.

Meanwhile the tabloids seem to be co-ordinating their attacks, probably changing subject each day to find which mud sticks.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 04:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't agree with the "xenophobes" argument.

Sure, there was a large segment of Labour voters who allowed Ukip to appeal to their worst instincts. They naturally followed May when she started foaming at the mouth and quoting Churchill.

But when Corbyn changed the subject, they listened. And evidently are flocking back to Labour.

Something similar nearly happened in France. Had the presidential campaign lasted a couple more weeks, Mélenchon might have peeled off enough FN voters to win the presidency. And the world would be a very different place.

I've said it before. Sometimes changing the subject, rather than confrontation, is a better tactic for everyone. If Corbyn wins (and a hung parliament counts as a win) with a progressive, inclusive, kindly agenda, then the xenophobia will subside. Slowly.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Jun 1st, 2017 at 10:52:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You also saw this with Sanders. And I remember our very own redstar being rather cross with Mélenchon at the last election for over emphasising attacks on the FN.
by generic on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 01:21:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm never sure that redstar's political motives are entirely pure.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 07:58:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
YouGov | UK General Election 2017 -
Conservative   41%  311
Labour            38%  255
by generic on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 03:28:34 PM EST
Ok, that pretty much defeats all I wrote above :)

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 03:47:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
¯_(ツ)_/¯

Headline:

Election 2017 polls latest: YouGov explains shock hung parliament prediction

Buried in the article:

[YouGov's] chief executive, Stephan Shakespeare, told The Times: "The data suggests that there is churn on all fronts, with the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats likely to both lose and gain seats.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 03:36:13 PM EST
The Guardian is far more skeptical, they've got the gap at 8 - 12.

Mostly cos they don't believe that the young will turn out in anything like the numbers YouGov predict. Also, they believe the Labour vote is too concentrated, so that they will storm some constituencies and see almost no movement in many others

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 04:27:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The better bet is the youngs won't vote and let the Tories squeak it through.  But every now and then, e.g. Obama winning the Iowa caucuses, they fool you.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 10:23:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here we have Theresa May asking on TV why Jeremy Corbyn spends so much time on TV instead of thinking about Brexit.
by generic on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 04:02:37 PM EST
The press seems to have tasted blood. If I had to guess I'd say they resent being denied the easy and traditional debate spectacle.
by generic on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 04:11:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From your link
No Prime Minister is better than a bad Prime Minister
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 04:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Except she doesn't take questions from the public.

She's almost never been exposed to the public during the election, hiding in remote corners of constituencies surrounded by a phalanx of blue meanies and a press cordon told which lenses to use to ensure nobody sees the empty spaces.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 04:31:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
She looks like a frightened rabbit terrified of public scrutiny.  Strong and Stable is the very opposite of what comes to mind when you actually see her perform

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 31st, 2017 at 04:38:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn kept saying "for the many, nor for afew"...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 1st, 2017 at 08:16:14 AM EST
well, he's getting on with his life, so....

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 1st, 2017 at 12:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't he in France? I'm sure Macron will have policies designed for him.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jun 1st, 2017 at 12:39:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 09:36:23 AM EST
General Election 2017: Tory candidate Craig Mackinlay charged over 2015 election expenses -
Conservative MP candidate Craig Mackinlay has been charged by the Crown Prosecution Service over the Tory election expenses scandal.

The CPS announced on Friday morning that the case against Mr Mackinlay, who is fighting to keep his South Thanet seat on June 8, would proceed to court.

Two other people have also been charged: Marion Little, a Tory campaign organiser, and Nathan Gray, Mr Mackinlay's election agent.

by generic on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 09:46:30 AM EST
Is it just me or has the Guardian become a trolling operation for the Blairites against Corbyn? Such transparent trollery!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 04:50:36 PM EST
Become????

The Guardian's Blairite journalists have been utterly horrified by Corbyn and have never missed an opportunity to remind everybody of the disaster that will befall the Labour party at the enxt election. I can't remember every flight of hyperbole they itemed as certain to happen, but I'm pretty sure that slaughter of the first born was probably the least of them. And that was during the first election immediately after the 2015 Milipede loss.

Ever since then, they have gathered their knitting and clacked and cackled away in front of the tumbrils the better to enjoy their front row seat at that day of certain doom. Well, it's all going horribly wrong for them and Polly Toynbee, Jonathan Freedland and several others had better be really, really quiet for a few months after this election.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 05:25:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And the Guardian will trudge on guarding the spirit of Blair I suppose. And this is because that is how the publisher wants it. Same old same o.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 05:57:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Guardian view on our vote: it's Labour

Jeremy Corbyn has shown that the party might be the start of something big rather than the last gasp of something small

Full article here

by oldremainmer48 on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 05:19:18 PM EST
Guardian letters page today

We're still waiting to see who the Guardian will back in this year's election. In 2005 you told us to hold our noses and back Blair to get Brown. In 2010 you told us to vote Lib Dem. In 2015 it was choose Labour. Whose political career will you destroy this time by asking us to vote for them?
Jurgen Tittmar
Glasgow


keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 2nd, 2017 at 05:32:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Welcome to ET oldremainmer48.
by generic on Tue Jun 6th, 2017 at 05:33:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the welcome, been lurking for a year. Learning what other people think rather than anything original to add.
by oldremainmer48 on Tue Jun 6th, 2017 at 08:11:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The latest opinion poll by Survation conducted today after the Leaders' Question time appearances is the closest yet, putting the gap between the Tories and Labour at 1% - 40% to 39%. This compares to the previous week's Survation poll which put the gap at 43-37%.  A swing of 5% in one week.

Of course we have to be careful about being selective in our choice of polls. A ComRes/Independent/Mirror poll conducted before the Leaders' TV appearances puts the  Tory lead at 12% - the same as their survey the previous week.

The overall trend of polling is unmistakeable, however, and the only question is whether it continues right until polling day - and whether polling day comes too soon for Labour to have a chance of taking the lead.



Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2017 at 09:01:02 PM EST
I'm far too optimistic in general, but I would point out that in the current case, just to draw level in seats, you need something like Con 37% / Lab 43%
Electoral Calculus

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 4th, 2017 at 02:47:04 PM EST
yes, Labour coulddo with another week, preferably one without terorrist activity

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 4th, 2017 at 05:23:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With May doing all she can to appear weak and unstable, am I alone in wondering if she wants Corbyn to win, in order to drop the hot Brexit potato in his lap?

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 09:15:28 AM EST
Yes, you aren't the first to suggest that, but methinks that, given where the polling was a month ago, it's somewhat unlikely anybody could have planned such a collase

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 05:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Without the Tories there is no Brexit hot potato to drop.

A hung parliament with a nominal Labour majority propped up by a coalition of anti-Brexit parties is unlikely to speed torwards to the insane car crash fuck-you-Europe May seems wedded to.

It's far more likely that a second referendum would be the price of cooperation. The UK would have to be quite staggeringly and suicidally stupid to vote for Brexit again.

There are plenty of people here who are staggeringly and suicidally stupid in exactly that way - but probably not enough to win twice.

The truth seems to be simpler. The Tories really are quite breathtakingly incompetent, and quite unable to do anything at all without falling over their own feet while making a sad farting noise.

I realised this earlier in the week, when I considered their record. Except for CEO pay and asset inflation, not a single thing about the UK has improved over the last seven years.

They've trashed the economy, education, the NHS (and are trying to trash it some more), housing, job prospects, domestic security, and the UK's international reputation.

It's a very impressive record. A final failure to push through a Brexit disaster they themselves created would be the perfect note for them to end on.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jun 6th, 2017 at 12:44:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the incredible thing is they still win most elections, and in the city it seems that most people just assume that of course everyone wants them to win and sees Corbyn as a dire threat.

Letting the fiction that Labour caused the financial crisis (especially that they caused it in a way the Tories would not have - not enough regulation is not a reason to vote Tory) was truly catastrophic and will hurt for decades.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Jun 6th, 2017 at 08:16:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The only two things that matter to them have improved though, so that's a win.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jun 6th, 2017 at 09:51:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2017 - Wikipedia -
[hide]Date(s)
conducted     Polling organisation/client     Sample size     Con     Lab    
5 Jun     YouGov     53,609     42%     38%    
2-4 Jun     ICM/The Guardian     2,000     45%     34%    

Also curious who has the better special sauce in their polling.

by generic on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 10:35:54 AM EST
Yea, another couple of weeks and Labour might make this competitive. But given the way that the population is clumped, you'd need a Labour lead of 5% or so for Labour to come out even

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 5th, 2017 at 05:03:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The YouGov polls are claiming to account for constituency balance. I don't know how much to trust them, but the fact there's so much variation in the polls is an interesting data point in itself.

My suspicion is that May's career is already over. She started with an unassailable lead that should have sealed the deal on Brexit, and she has thrown it away by running the most spectacular train wreck of a campaign in post-war British history.

She may still win, but questions will certainly be asked if she suddenly emerges from her current position with the hundred and fifty seat majority she was hoping for.

Corbyn meanwhile has become more and more credible, and has run a very tight campaign. Even the most dedicated PLP Blairites are having a hard time pretending that Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham, or that Smith bloke could have done better.

I've never known a campaign that was more hard-fought and more polarised. The future of the country really is at stake, and there have been huge and heroic efforts to get the left message out.

It may not be enough against an institutionally biased and hostile BBC and press, but it's certainly made everyone I know far more political and far more involved than they would usually be.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jun 6th, 2017 at 12:58:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At least I'll still get the chance to read the Corbyn book by Richard Seymour without getting the ending spoiled.
by generic on Tue Jun 6th, 2017 at 05:37:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Wed Jun 7th, 2017 at 01:12:43 AM EST

by generic on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 07:59:53 AM EST


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