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May-Day: UK Elections - Open Thread

by Bjinse Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:41:17 AM EST

All eyes on the UK today. Will May end up having a hung parliament - or will there also be some quartering? Or will we see the Tories run off with the loot into a glorious sunset of the Brexit?

Discuss freely.


Latest polls:


This is in line with Colman's cheerful analysis:

U.K. Election prediction: somewhat increased Tory majority.


Not small enough for them to take May out immediately, but too small to secure her position, ensuring she'll be gone by Christmas and spend the negotiations trying to shore up her position while rivals exploit them in manoeuvring. She'll still be beholden to the worst extremists in her party of course.

I can't think of a worse case.

Display:
by generic on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 12:34:11 PM EST
Here is the polling company predicting a Corbyn win bragging about why they got Brexit right. In case you really want to get your hopes up before the disappointment we all expect and are used to.
EU Referendum Post-Mortem: Why Were the Polls So Wrong Again (and why our mobile polls got it right)? - Qriously -
Only a few days after Brexit, headlines across the media are blaring that the result was a "shock", that financial traders were "caught off guard", that "no one expected this". People seemed to assume that because the government, the city, the church and nearly every major authority was supporting Remain, that Remain would prevail. This was reinforced by the latest polls and the overwhelming betting odds in favor of Remain. Even David Cameron, likely the most informed man on the planet regarding Brexit, thought he had a victory at 10pm on the day of the vote.

At Qriously, we used our mobile polling methodology to run a number of polls on the EU referendum, and were the only ones to show a consistent lead for Leave before the day of the vote and to make an accurate outcome prediction when polls closed at 10pm last Thurs. The best way to describe our method is `mobile in-app river sampling' as we intercept smartphone users while they use their usual apps, by inviting them to take a short survey without leaving the app.

by generic on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 02:42:20 PM EST
And you realise that YouGove is jointly owned by a Tory MP and a major Tory donor. So no obvious bias there then.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 06:36:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian:

Newcastle-under-Lyme:

Now being told students should go back to the polling stations they have been turned away from ....



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 07:55:02 PM EST
Paul Farrelly, Labour's candidate in Newcastle-under-Lyme:

The electoral services department here in Newcastle is a shambles and there is chaos, which is denying people votes on a scale unprecedented in my 30 years of fighting and organising elections.

We have spent the past week firefighting over scores of postal votes, which have not arrived and we not only have lots of registration applications that have not been processed, but people - including students - being turned away when they are indeed registered.

Each passing hour is not only spoiling election day, but just adding to the issues for complaint, which I will be referring tomorrow to the Electoral Commission and other bodies for an independent, outside investigation.

The reality is that electoral services in Newcastle have been all over the place since a licensing fiasco led to the departure of good, experienced staff last summer.

Apparently students with voter cards have been told they aren't registered to vote.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 07:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Want to record this:

Sun Reporter Tom Newton Dunn predicting Tories will pick-up 10 to 12 seats from the SNP.  


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 08:48:52 PM EST
Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan)

As exit poll looms, I repeat my prediction: Conservatives to win by 90-100 seat majority.



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 08:54:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yea well, another Tory being wildly over-optimistic


keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:43:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
steve hawkes (@steve_hawkes)

Rumour Tories could be looking at 400 seats - we'll find out in a min




She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:02:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like this tweet may not age well.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:11:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They could be looking at 400 seats - but 86 of them are likely to be Labour.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:25:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bjinse on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:32:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seeing suggestions Labour think it's out by 15 seats.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:35:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yep... it's looking like Jez Corbyn for PM... Good night. Excellent night.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 12:59:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
General Election exit polls and results live - hung parliament forecast and no Tory majority
The Conservatives are set to be the largest party but without an overall  majority according a joint BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll, which indicated the Tories  will win 314 seats and Labour 266.

The poll suggest Britain is heading for a hung parliament, with Conservatives 12 seats short of the 326 they need for an absolute majority in the Commons.

The poll put Tories on 314 seats, with Labour on 266, the Scottish National Party on 34, Liberal Democrats on 14, Plaid Cymru on three and Greens on one.

If the result looks like this I hope the Liberal Democrats has the sense to stay in opposition this time and let the Tories try to manage a minority government.

by fjallstrom on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:35:57 PM EST
I find it hard to believe the SNP will drop 22 seats to the Tories.

Especially since the word is they only polled 10 seats and 20 are "too close to call" as of this time stamp.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:52:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
that explains the caveats the BBC offered. Most Scots I'm seeing think that the Tories might make 4 or 5 seats, others will be Labour gains.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:59:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can see Labour taking back some seats.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:04:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They could be losing seats to Labour. Last election they won all but three seats in Scotland, IIRC. A slight decrease of SNP vote share could mean lots of seats.

European Tribune - Comments - May-Day: UK Elections - Open Thread

Especially since the word is they only polled 10 seats and 20 are "too close to call" as of this time stamp.  

Have you found anything substancial about how the exit polls were done? I only find the same media-reporting of the final numbers of seats.

Ah well, I should get to bed now. I can just as well check the results tomorrow.

by fjallstrom on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:05:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Getting my info from some sites in Scotland.  They are Pro-SNP but are level-headed.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:12:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The exit poll puts the Coalition of Chaos a few seats ahead of the Conservatives.

Not counting Northern Ireland.

We shall see. Labour resurgence hands a bunch of seats to  the Tories in Scotland. Not very tactical, them Scots.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:39:17 PM EST
One good outcome of the election may be that Blairism is dead, Corbyn is vindicated, and May exposed as the shallow poser she is.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:51:19 PM EST
Cameron seriously miscalculated by calling a vote and May accidentally activated the parachute as well.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bjinse on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:23:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the Tories do lose their majority, and if May's position becomes untenable, then will the triumvirate of hell take over?

By the way, there are Brexit talks starting on Monday!

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 09:56:06 PM EST
right now the mathematics doesn't seem to add up for either Labour or Tories. Which means we'll have another election in the autumn

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:00:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking like a Labour minority government. Ought to be stable enough, with SNP and Liberals generally voting with Labour.
This time I'm really going to bed.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:13:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU negotiating team will be talking to each other?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:03:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting bit via the Guardian liveblog:
Robert Harris (@Robert___Harris)

It is becoming ever clearer that this country was completely fucked by that stupid bloody referendum

June 8, 2017



Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:10:31 PM EST
I coudl have told hm that the day after Cameron announced it

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 07:28:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One seat reported, Newcastle upon Tyne Central. Labour hold, +9.9% in voter share.

Extrapolate from that if you want to :)

by fjallstrom on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:11:41 PM EST
Guardian live-blog:


Fuller results from Houghton and Sunderland South paint a more complex picture.

Labour held the seat with 24,665 votes; that's 59.6%, up 4.4 points on last time.

The Tories were second on 12,324 - up 11 points on 2015 and benefiting from Ukip falling 16 points. They came third.

But the result is a 3.5% swing Labour to Conservative - the opposite to what the exit poll predicted.

Last bit is interesting...

by Bjinse on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:19:16 PM EST
Also interesting is the UKIP vote collapsing but its still not enough to swing the seat to the Tories.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:22:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just read that Sunderland and Newcastle are pretty well populated by student - which would give Labour an advantage. Though it also is suggestive of a large turnout amongst youth voters.
by Bjinse on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:29:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clegg and senior LibDems are saying they won't even consider joining a coalition government.

Guess they learned the last time.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:35:34 PM EST
This thing keeps getting weirder ....

SCOT goes POP!

Pollster on @SkyNews just admitted the range of SNP total in exit poll is from 21 to 50. In other words #fuckinguseless


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jun 8th, 2017 at 10:41:03 PM EST

Maybe he can have Assange's old room?
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:18:21 AM EST

Well, we are laughing now.
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:24:05 AM EST
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 02:21:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 05:49:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
J.K. Rowling On the Magic of Government Benefits
"Harry Potter" author J.K. Rowling argues that there's magic in government benefits.  She stopped by "The Daily Show" to chat with Jon Stewart about her new book "The Casual Vacancy," and delved into how government assistance helped her survive in her early years.  "I couldn't have written this book if I hadn't had a few years where I' d been really as poor as it's possible to go in the U.K. without being homeless," Rowling told Stewart. She added that "We were on welfare, what you we call welfare, I would call benefits, for a couple years."

"We don't call it benefits - we like you to feel as bad as you can," Stewart joked.

From welfare to one of the world's wealthiest women -- the incredible rags-to-riches story of J.K. Rowling

After her mother's death, Rowling moved to northern Portugal for a fresh start and taught English as a foreign language. She started dating a man named Jorge Arantes, became pregnant, and moved into a small two-bedroom apartment with Arantes' mother.

The couple miscarried, but they married in October 1992. Rowling later gave birth to a daughter, Jessica, in July 1993.

The rocky marriage lasted a mere 13 months, and Rowling and Jessica returned to the UK to live in Edinburgh, Scotland, not long after. She carried three chapters of "Harry Potter" in her suitcase with her.

Living in a cramped apartment with her daughter, jobless and penniless, Rowling fell into a deep depression and admits she even considered suicide. She was forced to rely on state benefits and spent much of her time writing "Harry Potter" in cafés with Jessica sleeping in the pram next to her.

by das monde on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 06:47:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The joke is that she has been relentless in her opposition to Corbyn since she wants Labour to be "electable" and then effectively endorsed the LibDems. All those millions might influence decision making after all.
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 08:35:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Primordial indebtedness to financial powers seems to be stronger than respect for an earnest "nanny" state... What a sociobiology.
by das monde on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 09:55:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:33:26 AM EST
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:39:14 AM EST
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:46:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Election results live: Nick Clegg loses seat as May's future in balance | Politics | The Guardian -
The former Liberal Democrat leader is out: losing by 19,756 to Labour's Jared O'Mara on 21,881.

Thanks Yanis I guess.
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:56:18 AM EST
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:58:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

To be fair to Yanis :
Lastly, on the `small' matter of endorsing Nick Clegg I must say that this was not a choice that I voted for. Nick may have had a change of heart recently, and has called for a progressive alliance government in the UK - all good, proper and in concert with DiEM25's agenda. BUT, he stands condemned for his connivance in the class war against the weak; i.e. the austerity policies of George Osborne and David Cameron. He also stands condemned for having acceded to various anti-social, uncivilised Tory policies, e.g. trebling university tuition fees. NEVERTHELESS, DiEM25 is a boisterous, democratic movement that combines horizontal decision making with all-member votes. That very process, which we cherish at DiEM25, yielded this particular recommendation - one that I must, and I do, accept.

DiEM25 UK proposed a list, to demonstrate that we're not supporting a particular party; the whole membership ratified it.

We did it differently over here : we proposed a six-point charter and invited candidates to sign it
(well, we left it too late to get a list ratified by the membership. So candidates are adhering to our principles, rather than us supporting them. Nuance.)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 07:51:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Talking of LibDems losing their seats, Sarah Olney has lost Richmond Park to Zac Goldsmith. By 45 votes.
by Gag Halfrunt on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 09:01:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Meanwhile:

Kensington election results suspended as recounts proves too close to call

by das monde on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 09:31:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought he lived in California.

Anyway, looks like Conservatives are conceding Kensington and Chelsea as Labour's lead is beginning to stretch on recount

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 12:09:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Cleese must have spam, spam, spam, bacon, egg and spam on his face now.
by Gag Halfrunt on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 08:35:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However I'm 100% OK with his subtext, which is that the current system is profoundly undemocratic.



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 02:54:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unlike the US, the British had a choice. They rejected AV in a referendum only a few years. I don't think Labour campaigned for the change.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 07:00:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
New Labour was probably just fine with the existing order. They bought everything else.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 17th, 2017 at 03:02:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is one of the two tragedies of the night. Goldsmith and Rudd both squeaked in with a handful of votes, giving the Tories + DUP a working majority of two.

Without both of those, May would be gone.

Of course May is still going, but the Tories are going to let her limp along for a while as various possible replacements negotiate backroom deals with Murdoch.

It's not quite the worst of all possible worlds. The Tories have had a solid kick in the constituencies, Hard Brexit has become impossible to justify, and there are plenty of Tories who want to stop it completely.

But it is a chaotic unworkable stalemate. And the danger now is that some of the anti-Tory protest votes, especially from students, have had their say. The core Tory pensioners may return to the fold in the autumn, especially if the vote-losing Dementia Tax is quietly dropped.

If there's a more charismatic leader who does "strong and stable" more convincingly - maybe another pensioner, like Fallon - this could be the high water mark for Corbyn and the LDs.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 11:06:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
talk of persuading May to leave Westminster and parachuting Ruth Davidson into her seat.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 12:08:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmmm... That may be the best choice they can make in the circs.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 12:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is this correct?

SF has 7 seat but do not occupy them. Hence 322 is the number required for a de facto working majority,  rather than the nominal 326.

by det on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 12:29:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
there seem to have been a lot of these with 3rd parties getting more votes than the gap.

Progressive forces need to start doing formal no-contest seat swaps

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 12:10:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some grumbling on the Remainer groups about this. Greens did the decent thing, so did a few contenders in specific constituencies, but generally LDs spent a lot of time attacking Corbyn, and L weren't exactly positive about more formal cooperation.

We persuaded voters to vote tactically. Now we need to persuade parties to cooperate tactically.

And that's going to be hard.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 12:15:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's 6:00am EST

Latest in from BBC analysis ... the exit poll is proving quite accurate!

Election results LIVE! - The Guardian

Con 290 [-14]
Lab 249 [+31]
LD   11 [+5]
SNP  34 [-18]
DUP  10 [+2]

by Oui on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 04:08:53 AM EST
Jeremy Corbyn and Labour pull off a surprise; heading for a hung parliament | The Guardian |

Loser: Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrats (Sheffield Hallam)
Nick Clegg, the former deputy prime minister and Lib Dem leader who was at the helm when his party were routed in 2015, has taken his fair share of political kickings. Thursday night delivered one more as his seat - one he had held for 12 years - fell to Labour.

Seven years after he became deputy prime minister and two after he resigned as leader of his party, Theresa May's snap general election delivered a crushing blow - with Clegg losing his Sheffield Hallam constituency after failing to fight off a Labour surge. One of the biggest scalps of the night, Clegg couldn't defend his slender majority of 2,353 in the South Yorkshire constituency, losing it to Labour's candidate, disability campaigner Jared O'Mara, in a 4% swing to the party from the Lib Dems.

Clegg looked visibly saddened as the results were read out, facing the fact of a successful political career coming to an end at a time not of his choosing. In a speech following the result, he said it had been the greatest privilege of his political career to serve Sheffield Hallam as MP. Clegg urged politicians of all political stripes to work together to bridge divides that he said threatened to seriously damage the country.

    "We must try and reach out to each other to find
    common ground to heal those divisions. If we do not
    our country will endure unprecedented hardship."

Amber Rudd wins in Hastings & Rye. It was extremely close - and went to a recount - but the home secretary clings on.

SNP's Angus Robertson and Alex Salmond lose to Tories

by Oui on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 04:10:23 AM EST
As it stands right now Conservatives + DUP = 324 seats. I see the chances of May remaining in office as quite high.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 06:52:58 AM EST
But she said that if she lost 6 seats Corbyn will be the next Prime Minister. Are you actually suggesting that she wasn't telling the truth?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 07:08:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Shes a tory, so of course she's not telling the truth

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 07:32:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Toiries, yes. May, not for long,
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 07:12:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But there are 650 seats? Sinn Fein's refusal to join Westminster will literally put their mortal enemy into government?
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 07:38:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tories + DUP = 327 seats at this stage. And there might be at least one more for the Tories to grab.

Even without knowing much about the DUP, I believe this guarantees the hardest of Brexits.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 08:56:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Express | DUP coalition with Tories likely as party 'open to anything EXCEPT Jeremy Corbyn alliance'

The largest single party in Northern Ireland could hold the keys to power as they effectively hold the balance of power as both the Conservatives and Labour will try to form alliances with others in order to form a working majority.


You might find me At The Edge Of Time.
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 09:36:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From what I saw - but now can't find - DUP's first demand is no hard border in Ireland, which means a Brexit deal. So a CON-DUP can not aim for hard Brexit even as negotiating tactics. So I would say chances of hard Brexit declined and chances for a deal increaed. Not by much, but some.
by fjallstrom on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 10:28:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect the reason you can no longer find it is because it is incorrect.

The DUP's `price' for propping up a new Conservative government will include a promise that there would be no post-Brexit special status for Northern Ireland, the party's leader in Westminster has confirmed.

Nigel Dodds, re-elected as North Belfast MP, said that among their preconditions would be an insistence that there was no separate deal that would effectively keep the region with one foot still inside the EU.

Special status

The DUP fears that special status after Brexit - a key demand of Sinn Féin - would de-couple Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/uk-election-may-to-form-new-government-backed-by-dup-1.31120 46

Shorter DUP: "our demand is that you give us nothing".

For the DUP hard Brexit is a feature, not a bug. Their objective is probably more about de-coupling NI from the rest of Ireland, more so than ensuring the coupling to the UK.

by det on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:16:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now I had to go find it (after finding which device I read it on...).

Who are the DUP and what might they demand? - The Scotsman

What might they demand?

The DUP are likely to focus on Irish border issues post-Brexit and will want to ensure there is no hard border with the Republic which could harm trade.

So it was speculation. But while looking for that I also found this statement that the speculation rested on:

Election 2017 - DUP warn 'nobody wants a hard-Brexit' as Tory coalition rumours swirl | Politics | News | Express.co.uk

However, the Prime Minister may have to make concessions on her desired Brexit, with Ms Foster keen for her Northern Ireland to remain in the single market and involved in the free movement area after the split.

She told Sky News: "No-one wants to see a `hard' Brexit, what we want to see is a workable plan to leave the European Union, and that's what the national vote was about - therefore we need to get on with that.

"However, we need to do it in a way that respects the specific circumstances of Northern Ireland, and, of course, our shared history and geography with the Republic of Ireland."

Ms Foster added: "No-one wants to see a hard border, Sinn Fein talk about it a lot, but nobody wants a hard border.

"Certainly that's not what the Dublin government want to see, not what the London government wants to see and not what Stormont want to see."

Apparently mixed messages (or possibly not, if opposing "special status" has a North Ireland connotation taht is more symbolic then practical), between re-elected MP Nigel Doods and Arlene Foster.

Arlene Foster is their party leader, so I guess she has something to say about their politics. But then again, it often comes down to the practicalities of who does the negotiations.

by fjallstrom on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:41:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The first is indeed probably wishful thinking on the part of the writer.

As for the second, it may be another case of wanting to have your cake and eat it. I suspect Foster and May will get along like a house on fire, reality be damned.

by det on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 02:51:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Except in real life that'll kill NI economy stone dead. So maybe not.

To be honest, the main effect here is that the already chaotic system has had a pile more energy poured in. Predicting outcomes is a fools game.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 09:43:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Colman, how likely do you see this new government:
a) striking an agreement with the EU ?
b) get it approved at the Commons ?

In the present setting, I find it reasonably less likely for May to ever present an agreement to the Commons. The kind of deal she would need to gather full support in her party is not on the table.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 01:39:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see this government surviving to turn on the Christmas lights on No. 10.

But as I say, the system is highly unstable, so I could be wrong.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 03:01:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 07:35:33 AM EST
by generic on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 12:59:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It occurs to me that this is the worst possible result for Ireland. Coalition of chaos between the Tories and the Unionists.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 07:52:12 AM EST
And likely the worst result possible for the remainder of the UK too.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 08:57:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As others have said, it is a fools game trying to predict what will come out of a DUP Conservative coalition.  Hard as it may seem, the DUP are even more stupid, bigoted, blinkered and short-sighted than the Tories.  In their book anything which annoys Sinn Fein has to be good.

So my best guess predictions - with a relatively low probability of being right.

  1. Conservatives and DUP form a relatively long lasting coalition aided by Sinn Fein abstentionism increasing their majority from 2 to 6.

  2.  The DUP will allow the Conservatives to do almost everything they want, provided nothing is done to increase the constitutional distance between GB and NI or satisfy Nationalist demands that the NI pro-Remain vote is recognised in any way.

  3. The conservatives will throw another few million £ at NI to make the DUP look good.

  4. Given that May will now require the support of even the most hard-line Brexiteers in her ranks, we will get a very hard Brexit, if, indeed, there is any Brexit deal at all.

  5. This will have the effect of ensuring that the DUP, as well as the Conservatives, fully own the consequences of Brexit, which in the case of NI will be very severe.

  6.  This result (which is in line with my median expectations), will ensure a United Ireland in about 10 years time when the consequences of Brexit have fully played out.

  7. In the meantime, chaos reigns, and with it a gradual and then precipitous decline in the UK economy caused by a very damaging stand-off with the EU leading to a probable trade-war.

  8. May will go down in history as the anti-Maggie Thatcher, leading Britain to glorious defeat...


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 02:22:28 PM EST
Help may be coming from another quarter. Ruth Davidson is saying she's splitting the Scottish Tories from the main UK party to put pressure on May to keep the UK in the Single Market.

May is already toast, but if she tries to stay and Davidson splits the party, Davidson may take some of the pro-Remain UK MPs with her - although it's more likely that they'll simply try to reclaim the party and try to find a strong Remainer to challenge May.

(This should rule out Boris - although he's venal enough to suddenly discover a strong Remainer streak if that will get him the top job.)

In other news the Tories lost Kensington to Labour on the strength of a promise to keep the UK in the SM. There were only 20 votes in it, but in 2015 the Tory majority was more than 20%.

Brexit, and especially May's threat of a no-deal hard Brexit, did huge damage in the Tory heartlands.As planned, she won over some of the former Kippers,  but lost a lot of support among The Money.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 09:59:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently Davidson has already directly contradicted the Daily Telegraph article claiming this on Twitter (based on an entry in the Guardian Politics Live).

I would spent as much time waiting for the good Tories to come to the rescue as I would waiting for the good republicans to stand up to Trump.

by det on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 12:29:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Kudos for calling BS on the front page nonsense over at BT. You actually showed great restraint in refraining from addressing in detail the multi-level untruths in such a small piece.

I would not have thought of Booman as becoming a Tory. In the context of US politics, the Blaiesque nature of such a piece from such a source (Corbyn "costs" Labour even while delivering an epic advance) seems to only makes sense as a subtle, indirect dig at Sanders.

by det on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 12:51:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I looked at that! I don't usually read Booman. Too far right for me.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 01:37:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So that's why I got deep-sixed from that place.

My allegiance to the human species ends at the California border.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 08:44:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it is, at best, center left - Hillary. Liberal on social issues but very respectful of big money.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 11th, 2017 at 02:00:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the left side of the Atlantic a Tory + DUP government looks like the hardest of hard Brexit.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 04:23:51 PM EST
The Independent
Conservative MP Crispin Blunt said "the electorate plainly have got it wrong" in the 2017 general election after it became clear Labour was on course to win seats from the Tories.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Jun 9th, 2017 at 10:10:15 PM EST
Is that some sort of tradition?

Another thing seen on the independent: former peace negotiator warning against the Tories forming a coalition with the DUP. For a Northern Irish government to be formed again, it would need a neutral Westminster government. But now the DUP is on two sides of the table. So Stormont castle remains shuttered?

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 12:34:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Lily Allen nailed it in three words :



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 02:57:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Something interesting, if true.

Huge number of young people believed to be behind vote that rocked Tories

Early reports have suggested that as many as 72% of young people voted in this general election.

The snap election called by Theresa May in April is said to have sparked a monumental turnout among voters aged 18 to 24, resulting in an unprecedented (apart from by YouGov) hung parliament.

However the 72% figure is just an estimate, initially reported by the head of the NUS. Ipsos Mori pollsters have since said that detailed stats on turnout won't be available for around a week or so.

by Zwackus on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 07:26:06 AM EST
Corbyn Won Because Hope Turned the Unthinkable Into Reality - VICE -
The Tories ran a campaign that was not about people; it was about inevitability. Instead of offering anything, they issued a command to the electorate: this is how the polls and the numbers say that things are going to be, make it happen. Theresa May refused to debate, because what was the point? It'd only drag her down to the level of her doomed competitors. They didn't really try to win, because there was no need; the press would take care of it all and tell their readers exactly what to do. At a time when millions of people were desperate for a positive change, they ran on the promise of a lifeless eternity, in which every day would be just like the last - but with the nights longer, the grass yellowing, the sun dimming, because that's just the way things are. It was the biggest act of self-sabotage in British political history.

Corbyn Won Because Hope Turned the Unthinkable Into Reality - VICE -
Across Europe, traditional social-democratic parties are disappearing; under an Yvette Cooper or an Owen Smith, Labour would have triangulated itself into the abyss. The bloodless, hopeless, senseless centrists tried to perform a kind of magic of their own - for two long years, they insisted that Corbyn was unelectable, and they thought that saying it as frequently and bitterly as possible would turn it into fact. But they missed something. What they repeated were just nostrums, the weary recitation of how things are. What we've all learned from the election last night is that how things are is not the same as how they will always be. People can overturn every certainty imposed on us. The world is ours to change.
by generic on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 12:56:37 PM EST
Watching Italy struggle with creating a new electoral law for years is making me wonder if there is such a mythic beast, a design to please everyone.

They all seem critically unfair in some way, could one be created that worked for everyone for ever?

The UK has had the same one for centuries, Italy has had 4 in the last few years.

Renzi has also triangulated his party into oblivion, and now there's only M5* to do a Melencthon and occupy the left of centre vacuum created by this syndrome.

They are not traditional lefties though, though many came up that way. They just realised years ago that the fake partitocracies were tits up and would soon be pushing up daisies.

It's not the Democratic party here sticking up for the poor with a citizens' income, doing the Greens' job saving the environment or wanting to pull troops out of global service abroad pissing off Arabs.
We almost had another (shitty copy of the German model with important parts left out) miraculously agreed upon by the 4 major political forces: Grillo, Renzi, Berlusconi and Salvini.
But the M5* tried to amend it and now it's on the rocks.
Back to the drawing board.
Which European country has the best, fairest electoral law?
Which country has the least arguments about it?

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Jun 10th, 2017 at 07:51:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The German system is the best I know. Does anyone have a better offer?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Jun 19th, 2017 at 10:28:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Theresa May was 'in tears' and Tory staffer was physically sick on disastrous election night - Mirror Online -
A Tory staffer was physically sick and Theresa May burst into tears as the Conservatives' election night horror unfolded, it emerged today.

The humiliated Prime Minister cried before visiting the Queen having earlier welled-up while addressing party activists, it was revealed.

by generic on Sun Jun 11th, 2017 at 03:18:04 PM EST
hahahahahahahahahaha

In tears? Yes, and all the people who died while declared fit for work by ATOS. Any sympathy for them? No. Didn't think so.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 12th, 2017 at 07:50:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard on Sun Jun 11th, 2017 at 04:06:53 PM EST
In other news, someone on the other side of the channel did manage to secure a mandate. Macron and his virtual party "en marche" are set to get a 2/3 majority in parliament. PS and the others are looking towards irrelevance with a handful of seats each.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sun Jun 11th, 2017 at 11:34:06 PM EST

Someone got overly drunk on the Corbyn victory party and missed an important appointment.
If the Left could have sustained their motivation they could now be the second biggest force in parliament.

by generic on Mon Jun 12th, 2017 at 10:17:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the problem with the notion of "mandate" is that, in order to get a huge majority, he has been careful to not reveal any actual policies with the exception of "moralising politics" (yes, because of course anyone could disagree with the stated goal of not actively encouraging crooks...).

And the incredibly supine media has not challenged him one bit, to the contrary they have been campaigning for him non-stop for over 2 years.

So those people get elected on the promise that "you have to give the newly elected president a chance". A chance to do what? Well, you'll have to find out later.

Is that a mandate?

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Jun 12th, 2017 at 03:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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