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We will see what kind of reports come after this first piece.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
By the government's tally there were 74,000 riots or other significant public disturbances in 2004, a big jump from previous years.
Don't forget the warlordism of the erly 20th century, when China was essentially many countries for a long period fof time.
The West needs to get out ahead of this though. Sometime soon the shit's going to hit the fan, and unless we (the democratic west) counter the nationalist fires stoked by the communists we are going to have rogue nation the likes of which haven't been seen since Germany tried to take her place in the sun early last century.
The west needs to put pressure on the the Chinese leadership to allow independent unions and the free expression of faith. I don't expect China to be a democracy anytime soon, but I do think wee nedd to work to establish the insitutions of civil society for a peacecul transition. We can't change China, but we can make the recogntion of independent unions, and the right to practice your faith freely the entry fee to get Chinese goods into the US and the EU. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
China has been unified since the 3rd century BCE...
Nope. China has been re-united every time it fell apart after 3rd century BC. (Each time with great cost in human lives, I note.)
Contrary to what others write here, falling apart was not the result of foreign invasion - on the contrary, foreign invaders were sometimes the re-unifiers, most notably the Mongols.
IMO the most notable disintegrations are:
We might have witnessed the start of this in 1989 with the student demonstrations ending in a bloodbath on Tiananmen Square. That was a sign of what might come, (Intellectuals are often the vanguard in expressing oppositional views). But in the last few years, people from outside the cities have began protesting, culminating in yesterdays riots. Most of these incidents have been spontaneous protest against local corruption and not in itself a protest against the central government, since most of the Chinese Communist Party's loyal supporter always have been farmers residing outside the big cities.
Now, with an seemingly increasing level of corruption, as a consequence of economic growth and thus a huge influx of foreign investors without a fair wealth distribution this might change. The Chinese authorities could, with their Turbo-capitalist reforms, be stepping into a minefield risking alienating the peasants, once their silent but loyal supporters and hence eroding their own powerbase. Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
I just wanted to add the reason why I don't think it is likely that China split up into smaller regions.
China consists mostly of Han Chinese (about 91% of the population) and the rest of 55 other nationalities. But these nationalities are too small in size and so dispersed throughout China that a claim to an area would be impossible, except for Tibet, Taiwan and possibly Inner Mongolia.
Now, the Manchu's were highly sceptical to the Han Chinese when coming to power in 1644 and tried to force Manchu traditions upon them, but this failed and today the Manchu and the Han cultures and traditions are very much entwined, so much to the fact that the Manchu's are now in a minority although a significant one to the Hans in what was known as the old "Manchurian" areas. That could pretty much explain the confusion over what's Chinese (Han) and what's Manchu traditions. (The Han Chinese derives their name from the Han Dynasty and is a bit misleading because there is a wide diversity of distinct cultural and linguistic groups within that concept, but they are not big enough to define them as ethnically different).
Yes, the Chinese history are ridden with tensions and conflicts mostly warlords fighting it out with each other and sometimes with the central power. And that is why I do agree with you on this point. The rapid economic growth and accumulation of wealth with seemingly little or no fair distribution, China will risk having more of these rebellions. With an ever increasing part of the population moving into the cities the risk would increase even more, even if the Chinese Government have made plans for a massive export of Chinese labour in the years to come possibly to stem the tied of unskilled labour coming into the cities. Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
I think if democratisation will be forced on the regime, it will all come from the migrant workers. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
... with a middle class that's no longer content to just work and consume ...
What I meant is that the middle class will not become not content. But, with what you added, I too have to qualify: if the Chinese middle class loses the illusion that they too can get super-rich, or feels that it stagnates or even loses what it already has, then they too will join the forces for change. Still, I don't think they would be central to it.
I can't imagine a democratic movement without strong support in the middle class.
Hm, that would be standard neoliberal theory. But in a country where the middle class constitutes only 10-15% of the population, they are neither necessary nor sufficient as a basis for democracy. (Same goes for India.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
The regional governments have quite a level of competition and the coastal regions have a large prosperity gap with the western areas.
The centre has the army, but the regions are working on that. This will be the key issue in the medium term, naturally enough.
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