I wouldn't say that the Manchu failed. They were, err... very forceful sometimes. But yes, it's the funny story about China. They always managed to absorb and assimilate their invaders one way or the other. Smart.

To come back to the subject at hand, those riots, what's the most probable outcome? I see three cases and I have no clue which one is the most likely:

• The current fascists in place manage to hold the lid on the pressure cooker and maintain themselves in power, same old, same old.
• Unrest grows and China spirals in a repressive vicious circle. The central government becomes ever more authoritarian and possibly ever more belligerent outside its borders as an escape valve for popular anger.
• Unrest grows and, in conjunction with a middle class that's no longer content to just work and consume, forces at least some measure of democratization (the one outcome all would prefer, I presume).

It's widely believed that Tienanmen pretty killed the first wave of democratic movements in China but is the situation really so politically frozen?

Anyone with direct, recent experience in PRC is welcome to comment.