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I have the sense that like the old Soviet Union there is also the possible of central breakdown into regions.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 04:55:11 PM EST
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China has been unified since the 3rd century BCE... It would be a geopolitical event of cataclysmic proportion if China broke up.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 06:21:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 07:22:49 PM EST
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Yes and no.

Don't forget the warlordism of the erly 20th century, when China was essentially many countries for a long period fof time.  

The West needs to get out ahead of this though.  Sometime soon the shit's going to hit the fan, and unless we (the democratic west) counter the nationalist fires stoked by the communists we are going to have  rogue nation the likes of which haven't been seen since  Germany tried to take her place in the sun early last  century.  

The west needs to put pressure on the the Chinese leadership to allow independent unions and the free expression of faith.  I don't expect China to be a democracy anytime soon, but I do think wee nedd to work to establish the insitutions of civil society for a peacecul transition.   We can't change China, but we can make the recogntion of independent unions, and the right to practice your faith freely the entry fee to get Chinese goods into the US and the EU.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 08:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, Chinese history, something close to my heart!

China has been unified since the 3rd century BCE...

Nope. China has been re-united every time it fell apart after 3rd century BC. (Each time with great cost in human lives, I note.)

Contrary to what others write here, falling apart was not the result of foreign invasion - on the contrary, foreign invaders were sometimes the re-unifiers, most notably the Mongols.

IMO the most notable disintegrations are:

  • the Three kingdoms era: East Han empire breaks up into Wei, Shi, Wu (220-280 AD)

  • the North-South dynasties era, with more stable Southern and less stable Northern states and dynasties, until reunification by the Shui Dynasty (280-581 AD)

  • the Five Dynasties/Ten Kingdoms era, a long-lasting warlord era (this time with the North more stable) between the Tang and Song dynasties (902-979)

  • the Southern Sung Dynasty era, when the South was a stable empire but the North progressively fell apart, then all was conquered by the Mongols - Marco Polo visited when the North was already conquered and Kubilai Khan took on the Southern Song (1127-1279)

The Three Kingdoms era, together with the preceding long disintegration of Eastern Han is kind of the chivalric age of China (much like the Sengoku period in Japan), romanticised in legends. The most famed battle of this period, the Battle of Red Cliffs in 208, is about to be put to film by John Woo as the most expensive Chinese film ever (according to IMDB, for release in 2007 only). Tho', I'm more fascinated by the immediately pre-imperial Warring States period.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 01:42:25 PM EST
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Yup, and it could happen again...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 05:30:49 PM EST
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good to hear from an expert 8-9


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 07:03:09 PM EST
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