I agree on a lot of what you say, but on the other hand there is no way to know if any of your predictions will come true. In fact, count me surprised by the number of exigencies the EU is already considering in Turkey's accession. It could very well be that Turkey Europeanizes certain parts of its current political culture.

I was initially all for Turkey joining, and I probably still am, but I am definitely trending toward the Turkey-skeptics. Not for the reasons fred mentions, but simply because I foresee Turkey entering with a host of exceptions to EU rules, and though I don't see it holding a lot of political sway, I see the EU lawyers and courts working overtime to maintain unity as various countries begin breaking the bounds of propriety. In other words, I see it as a possible trojan horse.