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With a whimper not a bang.....

I suspect that collapse is on the way, but that what's not expected is that China will be the first to collapse not the US.  There's going to come a time in the near future when China's population begins to decline.  And the rapid aging of the generation born after the one child policy means that a massive labor shortage will hit that country.  

China's advantage is based on very cheap labor, the result of keeping workers down.  The interesting thing to me is that oftern jobs shipped to China undergo a technological regression, going from mechanized, highly productive factories, to work being done by hand.  Whe labor costs in China are 1/50th those in the US, you can afford to exchange labor for capital.  What happens when the price of labor goes up?  Does the cheap labor train move on to Southeast Asia or Africa.  

And what happens to all the Chinse workers burning with resentment over they way that they've been treated (deniend free and independent unions, often cheated out of their paychecks, and all sorts of other explosive social forces kept under control by continued growth.) suddenly are forced out of their jobs.  Communist revolution in China? Ironic, yes.  Plausible, yes.  The scale of civil disturbances in China has been increasing, eventually it's going to be too large to control.  China need markets for growth (42% of its GDP is export driven, that's dangerously high) more than those markets need cheap Chinese goods.  Cheap labor is not something unique to China, and if China falters global capital will find it's way to other countries.  China will be forced to curtail dollar buys if that happens, putting the fixed rate of exchange between the Yuan renminbi and the Dollar in peril.  If China can't but dollars, the cost of Chinese labor skyrockets......

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Mar 17th, 2006 at 11:27:55 AM EST
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here's going to come a time in the near future when China's population begins to decline.  And the rapid aging of the generation born after the one child policy means that a massive labor shortage will hit that country.

I said this before, I'll say this again: there is no such thing as demographic disaster. There will be no massive labor shortage. At most there will be a rise in average retirement age. (And note: if the population decreases, so will be demand.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Mar 17th, 2006 at 05:58:06 PM EST
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