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What is the motivation for a coup?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. — Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 19th, 2006 at 05:36:58 PM EST
From wikipedia

The apparent coup followed months of rumours about unrest in the Thai armed forces and possible coup plots. In July 2006, around a hundred middle-ranking army officers said to be supporters of Thaksin were reassigned by the army high command, fuelling rumour that the army was divided between supporters and opponents of the Prime Minister. The coup was the first since Thailand returned to democracy in 1992 following an earlier coup.[8] High-ranked civil servants are ordered to report to the council while government offices and banks will be closed on September 20 [9].
by Laurent GUERBY on Tue Sep 19th, 2006 at 05:41:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's not a motivation... and this is too vague
Former prime minister Chuan Leekpai said of the events, "As politicians, we do not support any kind of coup, but during the past five years, the government of Thaksin created several conditions that forced the military to stage the coup. Thaksin has caused the crisis in the country."
What the King does could be interesting
A few hours after news of the coup broke, BBC News reported that the leader of the coup would be meeting with the King later in the day, although it was unclear at that time what King Bhumibol's position on the coup was.
If seems that the generals remain loyal to the King, in which case he could well play a similar role in defeating it as Juan Carlos did in Spain in 1981...

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. — Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 19th, 2006 at 05:45:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
CNN via Wikipedia: Thai army chief leads coup while prime minister away (September 19, 2006)
The chiefs of Thailand's army, navy and air force met with King Bhumibol Adulyadej to declare they were taking over the country, according to a televised statement early Wednesday.

The coup is being led by Thai army chief Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, who announced that the military and opposition Party of Democratic Reform were taking over while Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was in New York for a U.N. meeting.

...

Sonthi, who is known to be close to Thailand's revered constitutional monarch, will serve as acting prime minister, army spokesman Col. Akarat Chitroj said, according to The AP. Sonthi is a Muslim in this Buddhist-dominated nation, AP reported.

...

Only one local station was broadcasting and it was showing pictures of the country's king, according to an e-mail CNN received from Nio Paul, who identified himself as an American living in Thailand.

...

Troops on the streets of the Thai capital had yellow ribbons on their weapons, a sign of loyalty to the nation's king, to whom the coup plotters proclaimed their loyalty.

...

Elections in Thailand are scheduled for November after the country's constitutional court ruled that a vote in April was unconstitutional.

Thaksin had called for the April elections, three years early, after opponents accused the billionaire leader of abusing the country's system of checks and balances and bending government policy to benefit his family's business.

Some Thais gathered outside Government House in Bangkok to get pictures of themselves with the tanks and troops, AP reported.

Ok, now at least we have a motive for the coup.

It looks like the only way the coup will fail is if the King makes a stand against it, but CNN reports that he has already met with the coup leaders and the  coup wasn't called off, so I think that's it.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. — Euripides

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 19th, 2006 at 05:52:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bear in mind that this coup has massive popularity in Bangkok, the south, the east and a lot of central Thailand.
by observer393 on Wed Sep 20th, 2006 at 10:11:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The more I read about this stuff, the more it seems the coup can't fail.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. — Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 20th, 2006 at 10:22:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The coup is a done deal.
Read into it what you will but the PM left on a private airbus with 60 crates of "x" a week or so ago. His acolytes fled yesterday. His military supporters changed sides.
General Sonthi is proabably the second most popular man in Thailand today. Not bad for a Muslim.
An elected government may be more repressive than an unelected government. It is not about the way a government comes to power, but how they perform.
by observer393 on Wed Sep 20th, 2006 at 11:47:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On Newsnight tonight, the main charges levelled at Thaksin:

  1. Creeping authoritarian tendencies, including Berlsconi style media ownership (no independent TV left in Thailand), nepotism in the armed forces and civil service.

  2. Issues about the situation in the South.

  3. Concerns about his personal corruption.

  4. Loss of support for Thaksin in the Bangkok middle class, feeling that Thaksin suppressed opposition.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Sep 19th, 2006 at 05:55:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You, or newsnight, missed out the borderline lese majeste of the administration, which here in Thailand is a very big issue.  
by observer393 on Wed Sep 20th, 2006 at 10:15:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well living in Thailand, I would say the motivation for the coup was that Thaksin had divided the country far too much, and had refused to step down to rectify this division. A recent alleged bomb plot, that few believed, against him used to alter the military promotion list was probably the final straw.
by observer393 on Wed Sep 20th, 2006 at 10:08:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The motivation for the coup, as some have mentioned both above and below seems to be the growing displeasure amongst many of Prime Minister Thaksins and had its peak in 2005 when;
In December 2005, however, mass protests erupted after Thaksin exempted his family from taxes on the sale of their corporate stake. Street rallies lasted seven weeks before the prime minister responded by calling a snap election, which he won with deep support among the rural poor. However, the opposition refused to accept the results, and with Thailand's elites becoming increasingly disenchanted and a low-level Muslim insurgency raging in the south, Thaksin's ties with the army worsened. Last month, he accused military groups of conspiring to assassinate him.
For the military I think what broke the camels back were the two reasons that I have highlighted in the blockquote above, but for the people I think it is a mix of the problems in the south, the corruption issues and the fact that many do not accept the election outcome in 2005 and in order to legitimize the coup the military had to get the Kings approval and to address the peoples grievances about economical and political corruption hence the name of the new governing institution, "The Council for Administrative Reform".  

That said I still have to add that it might not come as a total surprise that the military stages a coup d'etat in a country that have a quite recent history of the military meddling into political affairs, but that doesn't make it more acceptable.  A democratic election have to be respected at least when it is a year after it was held.  If there are political grievances and if a country truly wants to call itself a democracy, those grievances have to be solved by civil institutions.
 

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Wed Sep 20th, 2006 at 12:45:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bear in mind that civil institutions in Thailand were widely seen as having been packed with proxies and thereby corrupted by the Thaksin regime. This coupled with almost total media control, mass vote manipulation, and increasingly violent attacks on his opponents, and attempts to stop them even assembling did not really allow for any solution by normal means.
A poll today announced in the Bangkok Post shows 82% of Bangkokians and very surprisingly 86% of rural people, favor the coup. I doubt that few here in Thailand actually care too much that some westerners will say it is an attack on democracy. The statements by Australia and New Zealand have gone down like a lead balloon with the Thai people I have talked talked to who say those idiots dont know what has been happening in the country. At the end of the day a repressive government is still a repressive government whether it is elected or not and the people under it will be relieved when it is gone. The method of removal is not important to those people.  
by observer393 on Thu Sep 21st, 2006 at 12:21:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, that might be, still the procedure of removal, especially of a democratically elected government, is a very important part of a democratic system no matter what people think and say.  

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Thu Sep 21st, 2006 at 06:33:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So you're saying revolution is only (if at all) legitimate against undemocratic regimes and that a democratic system cannot degenerate into an undemocratic regime?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. — Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 21st, 2006 at 06:36:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I would say yes to your first question and no to your second.  

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Thu Sep 21st, 2006 at 06:40:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So the claim coming from Thailand seems to be the PM had subverted the democratic system and a revolutionary change was needed. A rewrite of the constitution is in the works.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. — Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 21st, 2006 at 06:41:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, and I say I have my doubts over whether the democratic system was in such a bad shape that it could legitimize a military coup.  That said I have to add that I am not in any need of defending Thaksin I am only defending the democratic principles that have been violated.  

You have to be pretty sure of your own case and ought to have solid proof of gross misconduct, anti-democratic behaviour and the ineptness of civil institutions to cope with this "crisis" in order to be able to sell a military coup as a necessity in order to save democracy.  Well that is my opinion anyway.    

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Thu Sep 21st, 2006 at 07:01:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The interesting part in this case is that the coup leaders have explicitly said Thaksin has done no wrong and is welcome to return to Thailand.

Rediff: Bangkok Despatch: Why the Army took over (September 20, 2006)

The English-language newspaper The Nation's website reported that Gen Sonthi was asked by a British diplomat what action would be taken against the ousted government including Thaksin Shinawatra. Sonthi said Thaksin and members of his Cabinet can return to the country. He added that they have done no wrong.


Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. — Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 21st, 2006 at 07:11:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, thanks for that snippet of information.  I have had an uneasy feeling about this coup from the start, a feeling that the military was just itching to get into the drivers seat once more.  One part of democracy is to accept the peoples choice when a party and a leader is elected and not to oust that person just because some people are displeased with his policies their reasons have to be more solid than that.

Even so, let's hope that the democratic system is restored soon and that the new constitution will live longer than its predecessor.  

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Thu Sep 21st, 2006 at 07:30:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Thaksin government used its position to fill all of the check and balance institutions with its proxies, or to literally buy off those who were not direct proxies. These institutions included famously the extremely powerful election commision whose job became basically to insure Thai Rak Thai (TRT) electoral victories by holding elections in a manner that would favor the ruling party and by insuring no complaint against the ruling party would be upheld. One of their most interesting rulings was that if state money were used to buy votes it was not deemed to be vote buying. Vote buying has been rife in Thailand. Another of the check and balance institutions undermined was the supposedly non-partisan Senate. A block vote was basically bought. The auditor-general spent most of her term fighting to keep her position after the senate claimed she had been improperly selected. She was not able to do her job. She was not a Thaksin loyalist. The National Counter Corruption Commision that was supposed to check on corruption was never even selected as the government and Senate tied the selection process into a legal knot. While this was happening every complaint of corruption was reffered to this body. There is now a backlog of over 10,000 cases.
The government strictly controlled the state media rarely allowing a critical voice onto it, and newspapers faced having all of their advertising pulled if they allowed criticism.
The alienation of the Muslims in the South from any complaint proicedure has surely fired the flames of insurgency too. The disappearance of human rights lawyer Somchai who was chairman of the Muslim lawyers association remains a very dark mark over the Thaksin government. Thousands of deaths in the so-called war on drugs were not even investigated.
The TRT politcally interferred with the national police force, so that they enforced the politcal agenda of the ruling party and ignored any public complaints against the ruling party. This was particularly severe when opponents of the regime (and it was a regime at the end)started street demonstrations. The organisers always managed to keep these peaceful on their side. However, the response they met was not always so. Buses bringing demonstrators to Bangkok were routinely delayed and sent home. Some of the early smaller demonstrations were attacked by forest rangers organised by the natural resources minister. Complaints led to no action. Later a national newspaper was surrounded by a drunken mob organised by the PMs office minister. They threatened to rape any woman in the building. A similar mob tried to attack another newspaper office but local residents actually repulsed them. Then the opposition Democrat party who had nothing to do with the rallies held a meeting in the Northern town of Chiang Mai. The police stood aside as another gang of forest rangers attacked the meeting and  an ex-PM was assaulted. Again complaints were ignored. Similar attacks on opponents of the PM continued around the country. When shoppers booed the PM they were assaulted and an old man was kicked repeatedly on the ground and a five-year old child beaten. The police were filmed standing and doing nothing. Complaints were made but the response was any demonstrator against the government would be arrested if they caused people to attack them! Throughout this series of demonstrations General Sonthi refused to get inolved in a state of emergency when pressed by the government. The Thai military was just about the last institution that had not been packed with proxies although there were enough Thaksin supporters commanding units in Bangkok, and the exact mechanics of the coup are interesting in themself., but that is another story.
There is a lot more including an alleged attempt to assisinate the PM with a bomb, which most believed was just a publicity stunt to divert the news cycle from his supporters increasing violent action. Some of this had seeped onto the normally pliant media.
It all ended with a huge street demonstration planned by the People's Alliance for Democracy for Wednesday 20 September against the PM. Of course the coup changed all of this. It is interesting that the PM had a well prepared state of emergency speech that he read some of from the UN on Thai TV. This combined with the discovery of armed forest rangers in Bangkok has led many to speculate that there was a TRT plan to attack the Wednesday demonstration and then declare a state of emergency. Maybe we will find out more on this in the coming weeks.
Anyway, what I have tried to do is try to give some kind of feel to the atmosphere that led up to the coup  that will hopefully explain why the coup has received such support in Thailand.      
by observer393 on Sat Sep 23rd, 2006 at 05:28:12 AM EST
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