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Exciting?

You mean as in the old curse:

May you live in interesting times.

?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Sep 27th, 2006 at 08:32:28 AM EST
That's the one.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Sep 27th, 2006 at 08:43:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't be suprised if Ireland isn't far behind.

I'm not sure about the presence of exotic financing arrangements like ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortages) in Ireland, the UK, or Spain, but there has been a tremendous run up in prices (.pdf) the puts all but the most hyperactive US housing markets to shame.  Remember that large parts of the US housing market outside of major metropolitan areas have been relatively stable for the last few years. Look at the year to year debt rise for Spain and Ireland, and then look at the residential debat to GDP, and then compare to the US.  Two quick observations, Ireland and Spain both have real estate bubbles growing rapidly, and they have somewhat more capacity to absorb debt on a residential debt to GDP basis.  Perhaps Jerome can clarify if this all actually means that there is a European housing bubble, I think that there is, and I think that in the UK it popped in 2003 or 2004, hence the relatively low rate of growth but high debt.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Sep 27th, 2006 at 10:41:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's been a long day already, so why don't I just explode in frustration and leave it at that.

  1. Fixed rate mortgages are pretty much unknown in Ireland. Almost all mortgages are based on the ECB base rate plus a margin and are fixed for at most a few years. It has always been so.

  2. Ireland and Spain have rapidly growing economies. Ireland's GNP has been growing at damn near 10%  per annum for a decade, we've has gone from high to low unemployment and from mass emigration to mass immigration. There are a few demand factors at work here. Spain is in a similar, if not as extreme, situation. Both have young populations. The structure of the economy is somewhat different to that of the US.

  3. There is going to be a correction in Ireland at some stage as well. A crash? Maybe, but I'm guessing a slowdown in price increases. The top of the market is probably headed for trouble though.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Sep 27th, 2006 at 10:53:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't explode Colman.  I'm just noting that the real estate bubble is not just an American affair.  Spanish and Irish houing prices have been rising rapidly as well, let alone the massive Chinese real estate bubble.

Fixed rate mortgages are pretty much unknown in Ireland. Almost all mortgages are based on the ECB base rate plus a margin and are fixed for at most a few years. It has always been so.

EMI (European Monetary Integration) has led to relatively low inflation as individual nations have lost their ability to inflate their debt away (which was fairly common for Italy and Spain.)

And EU interest rates for home purchases are at slightly more than half US rates (which are currently floating around 6% for a 30 year fixed mortgage.)  I also imagine that the insidous phenomenon of house flippers, people who purchase homes as an investment renovate the house, and sell it within 1-2 months and make 15-20% profit off of each sale, are absent in Ireland.  That is to say that I imagine that there's not much in the way of short term speculative investing going on.

Ireland and Spain have rapidly growing economies. Ireland's GNP has been growing at damn near 10%  per annum for a decade, we've has gone from high to low unemployment and from mass emigration to mass immigration. There are a few demand factors at work here. Spain is in a similar, if not as extreme, situation. Both have young populations. The structure of the economy is somewhat different to that of the US.

I know that Irish growth has been extremely rapid in the last 15 years, celtic tiger and all, but is that sustainable in a world where there are millions of equally educated Indians willing to take jobs for a 5th or less of the wages of Irish workers?  An excellent educational system is the secret of Ireland's success, but is that enough.  And is 300% housing growth over a 5 year period sustainable when GDP growth per capita has been but a 1/10th of that?

I'd write more, but I have to go.  Take it easy, and try to avoid expoding.  All I'm saying is that this is a global problem.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Sep 27th, 2006 at 11:28:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have a long rant half-written about the secret of Ireland's success that I'll finish someday when I can get the time to do it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Sep 27th, 2006 at 11:52:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You should.

I was watching PBS (US Public TV) and they had a special about Irish lesson for Indiana.....

They never mentioned a word of the social pacts, but quite a bit about "flexibility" and about the role of Irish education in the Celtic tiger phenomenon.  The stuff about education was all that was palatable.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Sep 27th, 2006 at 02:22:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please do.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Fri Sep 29th, 2006 at 12:48:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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