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I don't think of coal as a long-term alternative...I'm no fan of polluting industries.  When I think of energy tech. I think of things like this comment, from Millman in another thread

As solar matures the following will probably happen.  Polycrystalline solar production will vary somewhat with the Si demand of the semiconductor industry. Thin film solar tech (which uses very little if any silicon per watt compared to standard photovoltaic tech) will grow to a substantial portion of the market and will be used to produce the remainder of what the polycrystalline market cannot provide, essentially creating an independent supply chain for the solar industry that decouples them from the nasty volatility of the semiconductor industry. In the long run the approximate reverse will be true - some sort of thin film tech will be the primary product, and polycrystalline solar production will be limited to "soaking up" all the spare Si capacity that the semiconductor industry is not using, particularly in times of low demand. Any solar manufacturer that is large enough will produce both for that reason.

The thin film tech coming along is, I think, an attempt to address EROEI even if it isn't intentional or thought of within that framework. Polycrystalline Si that is good enough to make CPUs for your computer is overkill for solar cells and thus there is potential room for EROEI improvement.

From what I've read these past few days, the trouble is how we negotiate a move back to a manageable number of humans on the planet without wars, vast die-offs (e.g. due to viral infections), and without (this time!--learning from the past) creating a sort of underclass whom we rely on.  Machines now form part of that underclass...tech.-wise a distributed future seems feasible, but not while the humans around now...ach...I mean, why are the people of Cameroon chopping down trees?  

I googled to find out...

In the recovery following the economic crisis caused by the devaluation of the CFA Franc, building and public works projects increased domestic demand for timber products. In 1999 Cameroon banned the export of some endangered hardwoods, though not sapelli and ayous, the country's largest hardwood exports. The move came after several years of heavy logging and the country's failure to successfully implement a policy aimed at reducing raw-log exports and encouraging processed wood exports.

Lacking an effective forest conservation program and suffering from endemic and pervasive corruption--it annually ranks near the top of the list for the world's most corrupt countries--Cameroon has found logging highly damaging to the rainforest environment. According to published reports, foreign loggers--the vast majority of logging companies operating in Cameroon are foreign-owned--have aggressively and unsustainably logged their concessions without much concern over prosecution by corrupt forestry officials.

On that scenario, I don't see a nuclear power facility within Cameroon solving their structural problems.


Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.

by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Thu Jan 11th, 2007 at 03:18:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the reason that I chose Cameroon in the first place was that I wrote about it recently over at Kos, noting that the Palo Verde Nuclear Station in Arizona, USA produces more energy than the entire nation of Cameroon.   In links therein, I note that the causes of deforestation in Cameroon are complex.   Certainly the mean old capitalist foreign logging companies are involved, but so is Cameroonian energy demand, of which burning wood represents 60%.

Of course, one might also argue that poverty plays a role.   I'm quite sure that some of the Cameroonians who cut the wood that

There is an element of tongue-in-cheek, and certainly a "magic bullet" thinking about my argument st Kos.   Certainly if they built the equivalent of Palo Verde in Cameroon they would almost certainly have nothing to which to connect the plant.   Being relatively near the equator, it is hard to imagine that Cameroonians cut down trees to heat their homes.   Mostly, I'd guess, they burn wood to cook.   It's not like the construction of a nuclear plant in Cameroon will suddenly mean that 10,000,000 electric stoves will be purchased, connected to a grid and come into use.

However it is difficult to imagine as well that 30,000,000 Cameroonians will suddenly be able to afford the solar systems that even few Westerners can afford either.   If one adds on top of that the internal and external cost of batteries, solution of the question becomes even more remote.

The real crisis in Cameroon is about poverty and population.   It is fine to point to the expression of this poverty being financial abstractions about the devaluation of the Cameroonian Franc, but these are as much symptoms as causes.   Few, if any, people in Cameroon became wildcat loggers - whether or not they were burning the wood for fuel, or providing the raw material for a rare wood fingerboard for Sting's guitar - out of venality.   They became loggers because they needed to survive.

At the core of my belief system - and let's be clear that I am certainly not optimistic that my ideas will ever see the practical light of day  - is the notion that the key to the extremely crtical moral, environmental, social and economic problems is poverty itself.   Addressing the problem of poverty is not straight forward and not easy and some solutions tried have certainly made the matter worse, not better.   From my perspective poverty is best defined as restricted access to the infrastructure, not access and dependence on that infrastructure.   To my way of thinking a movement to live off the land is in fact a movement towards poverty.

Of course, there are people who take "vows of poverty," most famously Ghandi.   Ghandi apparently had quite a wit and once quipped that his advisors were very much upset with the huge financial cost of keeping him living in poverty.   There is something more fundemental at work here though.  

If for instance, we take a Cameroonian family and simply give them more stuff they are not immediately going to be inspired to use Western style birth control strategies to have smaller families.

My view is that Westerners, for ethical reasons, should accept vastly reduced living standards, that they should take some kind of vow, if not of poverty, than at least of limits and conservation.   That said I also believe that people in the third world should consume more, not less, to break themselves out of the tragic cycle in which they find themselves.   The proper context for this to happen in my view is with high regulation by society itself - expressed as good government and strong international relationships predicated on peace and respect - coupled with co-operation in both resources and production.  It is very important though that we be flexible and construct feedback loops to recognize what does and does not work.   We know that the birthrate in Finland and Japan is below the replacement rate - which is large a good thing in my view - with the demographic concerns aside.   However this does not mean that we can solve Cameroons population problem by making Cameroonians into Finns.  

I am not about to argue that either capitalism, socialism  or anarchy - especially in their purest forms - are ideal solutions to any problem.   There is a great deal of rhetoric about these matters, but mostly it is theoretical and to some extent, theatrical.   To my mind the most morally successful observed economic cultures have relied on a flexible mix of approaches.

by NNadir on Thu Jan 11th, 2007 at 03:09:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However it is difficult to imagine as well that 30,000,000 Cameroonians will suddenly be able to afford the solar systems that even few Westerners can afford either.   If one adds on top of that the internal and external cost of batteries, solution of the question becomes even more remote.

My theory is that if the western world suddenly goes renewables mad, the price of renewables will drop dramatically. and exponentially because it means more and more people are living at least some of their time free of the grid.

At the core of my belief system - and let's be clear that I am certainly not optimistic that my ideas will ever see the practical light of day  - is the notion that the key to the extremely crtical moral, environmental, social and economic problems is poverty itself.

I support your comment 100%

And what is poverty?  So many poor people, so little money, because everyone's poor in some way...even those rich westerners have feelings...distributed power for me equals the chance to opt out, to get on without mum and dad breathing over your shoulder.  Thanks, yes, if they deserve them, but some kids get such shitty parents, and there are so many areas, so many levels, and so I want to give them simple, cheap, solar/wind tech.  Either the sun's shinin' or the wind's blowin'.  And where neither of those is true, maybe there's geothermal.  And yes, and then nuclear.  On that point I accept all the arguments.  Coal is more polluting--kills more people--than Nuclear.

(I'd like to see the nuclear community come clean about the past mistakes.  Maybe they have, but I'd like to read it, the acceptance of responsibility for pushing technologies into people's immune system...and then they die...but...look at coal!)

I very much enjoyed reading your comment NNadir.  I found it full of all the things I enjoy.

Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.

by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Thu Jan 11th, 2007 at 07:11:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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