Would Scotland's leaving the union be good for Europe? | 83 comments (83 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Would Scotland's leaving the union be good for (none / 0)

That occurred to me. The US was very crafty in encouraging the already existing EU countries to let the new ones in: I couldn't believe the West Europeans fell for it. They are evidently not used to thinking geopolitically.

Still, I think that in many respects, all of "new Europe" taken together is less influential than the UK by itself. On the other hand, each of them gets a vote. So I don't know. We are talking about gradual historical development here. The breakup of the UK would be a watershed, I think.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns

by Alexander on Wed Jan 17th, 2007 at 03:38:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would Scotland's leaving the union be good for (none / 1)

Oh, in addition, the "new" EU member states which are not from the former Soviet bloc are UK client states, Malta and Cyprus.

But there is more behind the espansion to the East than just US inducement. There was a very real fear that, if the new democracies in Central and Eastern Europe were not "validated" by achieving EU and NATO membership (and, here, Atlanticists were successful in making people believe the couldn't have one without the other), involution and a rise of authoritarian and populist politics would result. Whether or not that's true, it's the way it was perceived across Europe, both East and West.

IMHO only Slovenia and the Czech Republic were ready for accession in 2004, politically and economically. But you couldn't have CZ without Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. The Baltic states were probably ok economically but there are serious unsolved human rghts issues surrounding their large Russian populations, and now the EU "owns" the problem. They and Cyprus show that the idea that the EU could more effectively deal with problems in member states than in candidate states is a delusion. And the same delusion has been applied to Romania and Bulgaria with their "conditional" accession this year (supposedly they could be suspended after 1 year, but that's exceedingly unlikely). Finally, Malta is a microstate island nation, more catholic (read: socially backwards) even than Spain, Italy, Ireland or Poland, and smaller than Luxembourg, and I question the wisdom of effectively giving them veto power over key EU developments.

The last 15 years of EU leadership have given us the "growth" of the EU and the constitution fiasco. Not much to be happy about.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 17th, 2007 at 04:17:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would Scotland's leaving the union be good for (4.00 / 3)

IMHO only Slovenia and the Czech Republic were ready for accession in 2004

Make that Slovenia only. The situation of the Czech Roma is not dissimilar to the problem with thew Baltic states. Then again, in the EU-15, there was Greece, and in terms of malfunctioning political system, Italy.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jan 17th, 2007 at 04:53:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I disagree (4.00 / 4)

They and Cyprus show that the idea that the EU could more effectively deal with problems in member states than in candidate states is a delusion.

It's not delusion: it works. These problems are headaches, sometimes long and painful ones, but they do not turn into international crisis, hot or cold wars. just that is worth it, even if it's never counted as an achievement.

Just like Italy having the same interest rates as Germany: sure their debt and economy is a problem, but it's not a crisis that destabilises several countries.

How quickly we forget what the alternative looked like.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 17th, 2007 at 06:30:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I disagree (none / 1)

You are thinking Germany-France. But there making peace was the basis for going union. This is no longer valid when you think Greek Cyprus-Turkish Cyprus/Turkey or Baltics-second-class-Russian-citizens/Russia (to make things worse, in both cases with the patron outside of the EU), or Hungary-Romania, or Central European majority populations-Gypsies.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jan 17th, 2007 at 06:40:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I disagree (none / 0)

No, I am speaking specifically of what's happening right now in these countries: no international crisis. Sure, simmering stuff, but it hasn't gotten out of hand. Thanks to the EU.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 17th, 2007 at 06:44:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I disagree (none / 0)

Simmering was the status quo, pre-EU already. In the candidacy period, there was at least some progress, some lessening of the simmering. I can't see what effect of the EU membership you see.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jan 17th, 2007 at 07:03:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I disagree (none / 0)

And why do you not credit the EU during the candidacy period?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 18th, 2007 at 01:32:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I disagree (none / 1)

I do, all I'm saying is that it is delusional to expect significant progress when the EU Becomes tied to one of the parties and gives it the power to use tge issue in horse-trading at the Council.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 18th, 2007 at 03:12:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I disagree (none / 0)

You misunderstand, I did, and that's the very point! A longer candidacy period would have been more beneficial, a candidacy period extending until the conflict parties hammer out lasting solutions fitting into the EU framework. The prize at the end of the road (e.g. sitting on the table, be recognised, and get the money) was and would have been a motivating factor, and if the top accession negotiators and the decisionmakers in the Council had made it more clear to the leaders, the spirit of the (old) EU(EC) would have been adopted to a fuller extent.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jan 18th, 2007 at 04:37:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I disagree (none / 0)

Can you tell me what progress has been made on the second-class status of Russians in the Baltic states (or the open display of fascist, WWII paraphernalia), or on the Roma in Czechia or Slovakia, since accession? Has it even been an issue?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 18th, 2007 at 05:51:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I disagree (none / 1)

With emphasis on: after the accession. I note though that at least one the open display of fascist, WWII paraphernalia in the Baltics front, there was progress - as was discussed on ET, last year's veteran march was banned and then police stopped those who still came.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jan 18th, 2007 at 10:30:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Would Scotland's leaving the union be good for Europe? | 83 comments (83 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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