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Most interesting, NNadir, thanks.

I went on DKos to read your "French waste in the Mississipi" diary.

In both of your diaries, I note there is a side shot at Greenpeace, not really on topic.

A coincidence ?

by balbuz on Mon Jan 8th, 2007 at 03:20:30 PM EST
I've studiously avoided the topic, because they do some good things in other fields, but let's say that Greenpeace is not really reasonable in their opposition to anything nuclear. This was discussed in the comments of this diary, for instance.

(that diary could be added to the eurowiki, btw)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 8th, 2007 at 03:49:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't regard side shots at Greenpeace as being off topic when the topic is nuclear energy.  

Greenpeace is a major force of ignorance in my view.   This is easily seen by going on their website and clicking on "nuclear."

I do not regard them as environmentalists in any way.   They have no credibility with me whatsoever.  

I believe that they are encouraging a kind of thinking that will lead to the collapse of the earth's atmosphere.   They may have cute pictures of whales on their website, but I assure you that if the krill population is decimated by climate change - and it may be - there will be no whales, no penguins, and probably not much of anything else.

Basically I regard Greenpeace as an organisation for middle and upper class people who want to engage in "feel good" denial and elaborate ill informed pretence.

If you look for anything I write anywhere, you should expect to see shots at Greenpeace.   I very much want to divorce the international media from the ridiculous contention that one should refer to Greenpeace for an "environmentalist view."   This media conceit is about as harmful as climate change denial.  

I extend this criticism of Greenpeace to the curiously famous Patrick Moore by the way, who - his claim to fame being a founder of Greenpeace - also has no credibility with me.

I happen to agree with some things Patrick Moore says about nuclear energy, and maybe I agree with some things that Greenpeace says about wind, but to be perfectly clear, I think for myself.  I do not respect "appeal to authority" arguments in any way and I believe both Moore and his former organisation are essentially saying useless and dangerous things and that neither have "authority," in any case.

by NNadir on Mon Jan 8th, 2007 at 04:01:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fair enough. Now I have some context.

It's just that if you want to convince people, you can't just call people names out of the blue - although it's certainly your privilege as the diary author to do so.

Or maybe it's just me, Old European that I am, who will always prefers a calm and polite discussion - gentlemen like - whatever.

by balbuz on Mon Jan 8th, 2007 at 04:33:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I'm one of those ugly Americans - sort of "in your face."

I fully admit that some of this "in your face" stuff has gotten us in big trouble and lead to one of the worst outcomes possible in the person who is often referred to as the "President of the United States."

Stereotypes become stereotypes by being true I guess, and regrettably I exhibit all the properties of being an American, including a sometimes graceless and rude approach to life.   Please be assured though that this aspect of my personality doesn't mean that I am anything but deeply ashamed of my "government."

I do, all being said, admire European grace and subtlety, but exhibiting those traits myself is not in my nature.

by NNadir on Mon Jan 8th, 2007 at 04:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and you were too, I'd tempted to ask you for a date.

Woot. I'm in love.

 

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Mon Jan 8th, 2007 at 05:01:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Basically I regard Greenpeace as an organisation for middle and upper class people who want to engage in "feel good" denial and elaborate ill informed pretence.

From the U.S. Greenpeace site.

Greenpeace has always fought - and will continue to fight - vigorously against nuclear power because it is an unacceptable risk to the environment and to humanity. The only solution is to halt the expansion of all nuclear power, and for the shutdown of existing plants.

We need an energy system that can fight climate change, based on renewable energy and energy efficiency. Nuclear power already delivers less energy globally than renewable energy, and the share will continue to decrease in the coming years.

Despite what the nuclear industry tells us, building enough nuclear power stations to make a meaningful reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would cost trillions of dollars, create tens of thousands of tons of lethal high-level radioactive waste, contribute to further proliferation of nuclear weapons materials, and result in a Chernobyl-scale accident once every decade. Perhaps most significantly, it will  squander the resources necessary to implement meaningful climate change solutions.

The arguments against Greenpeace's position are re: their facts (I take it, rather than their ideological position.)  So...

Nuclear power already delivers less energy globally than renewable energy

True False?

and the share will continue to decrease in the coming years.

Possible?  Impossible?

tens of thousands of tons of lethal high-level radioactive waste

True?  False?

contribute to further proliferation of nuclear weapons materials

False?  True?

and result in a Chernobyl-scale accident once every decade

Possible?  Impossible?

I suppose I must be middle-class in the sense you mean above, so could you run the arguments past me, without ad-hominems, just the arguments?  Maybe you'll change my mind!  Who knows?

Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.

by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Mon Jan 8th, 2007 at 06:28:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nuclear power plants will cost trillions of dollars.   I advocate a completely government funded 10 to 12 trillion dollar plant to displace all of the world's coal capacity with nuclear power.   This is easily technically achievable and would save the earth's atmosphere from immanent destruction.   I note that destruction of the atmosphere will involve considerably more money.   In fact, destruction of the earth's atmosphere will make all amounts of money worthless entirely.

I have noted at DKos, and will post here that the external cost difference between nuclear power - which is very low risk - and coal can be estimated at more than 10's of trillions of dollars just in damage to the environment and totally excluding internal costs.

Question 2:   This depends on whether you consider the burning of biomass in huts - responsible for many millions of deaths in the third and second world from air pollution.

If you simply consider electricity, renewable energy both as primary and secondary energy produces less than one exajoule of electricity and less than 2 exajoules of primary energy - not counting hydroelectricity which is tapped out and dependent on the dubious continuous existence of glaciers.

Question 3:

Nuclear energy produces close to 30 exajoules of primary energy, and 10 exajoules of electrical energy.  It is the largest single greenhouse gas free energy in the world.

If the current proposed/ordered and under construction nuclear plants are all built, the primary energy will increase to 60 exajoules, about half of what coal produces.

In Greenpeace they like to discuss percentages and substitute them for absolute numbers.   This is a form of mathematical illiteracy of the first order.   For instance "world production of solar energy has increased by 100% since 2000!" means nothing if solar electricity is the equivalent of one or two natural gas plants.

Once again Greenpeace is being a force of ignorance here.

Question 4:   Predictions about the energy future are usually nonsensical.  None have been more nonsensical than the Greenpeace prediction, now going on many decades, that nuclear energy would just go away.   A few years ago, five or ten years, no one was talking about new nuclear power.    Now everyone is talking about it.

Ralph Nader - a rather heinous idiot in the United States - ran around during the 1970's saying that solar energy would provide 100% of the world's energy by the year 2000.

Question 5:  The word "lethal" means it had killed or injured someone.    Since the storage of spent nuclear fuel has not killed anyone, the amount of "lethal" nuclear waste is zero.  

This compares very favorably with coal, oil, natural gas and even biomass waste, all of which kill continuously, in numbers measuring in the millions per year.   Greenpeace mentions this usually as an aside; they hardly care at all about air pollution or else they would demand that it be stopped.

Interestingly - familiarity with the Bateman equations would be necessary here - it is readily shown that the accumulation of fission products is governed by equilibrium.   Thus nuclear energy is the only form of energy for which there is both a theoretical and practical maximum amount of so called "nuclear wastes" that can accumulate.   In some ways this is regrettable, since many fission products are extremely valuable material.   It can be shown that it will never be possible to accumulate enough strontium-90, for instance, to make enough radioisotopic generators to displace 3 coal plants.

Question 5:

The nuclear fuel cycle does indeed increase, albeit very slightly, the probability of weapons proliferation.   However the number of nuclear weapons that has been built with commercial nuclear fuel is one - it was tested by the United States - an extremely sophisticated weapons country - in 1962.

It is easy to minimize this risk through fuel management strategies and by the fissioning of weapons grade materials in power reactors.   However whether or not nuclear weapons can be made depends in no way on commercial nuclear power.   Both Isreal and North Korea possess these weapons without commercial nuclear power.   Neither Belgium, nor France, nor Switzerland, nor Finland, nor Japan...despite very sophisticated knowledge of nuclear fuel and the possession and operation of large reactors, possess nuclear weapons.

I note that Greenpeace has not called for the banning of fossil fuels even though one of the worst military killings of all time involved the fire bombing - using the petroleum product napalm - of a number of European and Japanese cities.   In fact the firebombing of Dresden, Hamburg, Tokyo... made the nuclear war events something of an unfortunate sideshow.

The incidence of nuclear wars in the last 50 years is zero.   The incidence of fossil fuel wars in the last 50 years is much greater than zero.

Question 6:
Nuclear power has been in practice for 50 years.   There has been exactly one Chernobyl scale disaster.   This "disaster" killed far fewer people than the normal operations of coal facilities in Europe in the last month.   Moreover there is no reasonable way to prevent coal operations from continuing to kill constantly, daily and regularly, since there is no way to treat air pollution comprehensively.  By contrast, the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl was not repeated.

I really can't stomach looking at the Greenpeace site, since ignorance troubles me.   Maybe you can inform me whether Greenpeace is calling for the phase out of aircraft because of the crash of Boeing 737's?

This is experimental evidence for the frequency probability of nuclear accidents.   However the Chernobyl accident was with an RBMK type reactor with a graphite core and a positive void coefficient being operated under unauthorized experimental conditions.   The experimentally observed probability of PWR or BWR fatal accidents is thus far zero.  

Nuclear energy has produced more than 300 exajoules of primary energy since 1980, most of it from light water (and a few heavy water) moderated reactors.   Thus the fatality rate per exajoule is probably the lowest for any form of energy in the nuclear case.

If you think that repeating rhetorical - and frankly illiterate - nonsense from the Greenpeace website constitutes thinking, think again, or don't think -   It makes no difference whatsoever.

I stand 100% all of my remarks about Greenpeace and I thank you for the chance to once again make them more specific and clear.  Greenpeace is a force for ignorance, enormous ignorance.

by NNadir on Mon Jan 8th, 2007 at 08:05:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is an error in this post I caught on re-reading it.

France does possess nuclear weapons of course, but had developed them well before becoming the nuclear power state it is today.

By the way, I call on all nuclear weapons state to dismantle their nuclear weapons and to fission their cores in nuclear power plants.

by NNadir on Mon Jan 8th, 2007 at 08:25:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
10 trillion dollars!
But that's almost 10% of GWP for a year!
(Trying to work up some outrage at the size of the number...difficult, though.)

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 02:01:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I understand this correctly, though I am having to fill in a gap in Nnadir's comment, the accumulated environmental damage due to coal exceeds 10T as of today. Assuming that is the right interpretation of the claim, Nnadir then goes on to suggest using that amount (which you point out is 5 weeks of world GDP) not to repair the damage but to prevent future damage by replacing Nuclear with coal.

Can we please have an estimate of the external environmental cost, and the internal operating cost, per GW-h for coal [cleanest technology] and nuclear [cleanest technology] as well as the cost of replacing generating capacity from coal to nuclear [per GW-h]? That way we can begin to thimk about the time scales involved.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 03:20:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And some stats for the EU in 2004:



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 04:04:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure uranium mining is included in the above.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 06:27:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But you're sure coal mining is, right? Why the double standard?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 06:36:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, I was thinking of externalities. I would have to look up EU figures for the ratio of domestically produced and imported coal, but I'm certain that a significant part is not imported from coal while all of the uranium is imported.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 06:58:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So imported coal creates no externalities?

That's excellent news!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 07:45:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think including part of the externalities for one resource and none for the other is a difference you can't recognise.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 07:58:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Would you mind pointing out where such a difference in treatment is supposed to have taken place?

It seems that the externalities associated with mining are accounted for neither nuclear nor coal in the above table.

Maybe your point is that nuclear mining is a lot worse than coal mining (per kWh produced)? Or is it something else?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 08:06:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Would you mind pointing out where such a difference in treatment is supposed to have taken place?

The title of your table says "in Germany", which implies to me the evaluation of effects in Germany. It is not clear just from the table what was and what wasn't included. But from the numbers for PV, it is clear that not only the costs of the very act of electricity generation were included, but apparently manufacture too. It stands to reason that mining was included, too, especially considering the ecosystems numbers.

Maybe your point is that nuclear mining is a lot worse than coal mining (per kWh produced)? Or is it something else?

I don't know which is worse, though I suspect that coal mining in Germany is less bad than uranium mining in some source countries for Germany. But I guess my main point is that your table means little without knowing the tablemakers' basic assumptions.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 08:52:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Dodo, can you dispute this calculation by ustenzel?
Ore grades will never degrade below 4ppm uranium and 12ppm thorium.  That's the concentration in granite, and there's plenty of that.  A 1GW fast breeder[1] will need about 3 tonnes of fuel per year, which at the above concentration amounts to about 500 tonnes of granite per day.  Let's say 1000, allowing for inefficient extraction and some losses.

A coal plant of the same size requires 10 times that amount of coal, leaving a hole in the ground 10 times as large.  This environmental impact is not considered larger than that of radwaste, so the same should go for mining rocks.



Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 06:42:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
can you dispute this calculation by ustenzel?

Not without looking up my own notes, which I can only do at home in the evening.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 07:06:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On second thought though, I add that Jérôme's numbers are current figures and mine also based on projection from current technology (IIRC a projection about the energy yield of the EPR), not an as yet nonexistant 1GW thorium breeder.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 07:22:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The coal is burned with little processing cost. In contrast, I'd expect that extracting uranium and thorium from granite would be quite energy intensive. I wouldn't be greatly surprised if the energy used were comparable to the energy released in burning 10 times as much coal.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 04:21:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
replacing Nuclear with coal

I mean replacing Nuclear for coal or coal with nuclear. Ugh.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 05:35:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the accumulated environmental damage due to coal exceeds 10T as of today

And I mean the accumulated environmental damade due to coal exceeds that due to nuclear by $10T as of today.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 05:37:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What? I haven't been roasted for this?
That should be:

10 trillion dollars!
But that's over 15% of GWP for a year!

(Now I'm outraged, but by my previous number.)

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 03:10:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...save the earth's atmosphere from immanent destruction....destruction of the atmosphere....In fact, destruction of the earth's atmosphere will make all amounts of money worthless entirely.

How does one "destroy the atmosphere", or even damage it to the implied enormous extent?

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 02:12:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well let's see...how might one destroy an atmosphere?

Let me think...

Well looking at the planet Venus, which is about the size of earth and not all much that more closer to the sun, I would guess that injecting greenhouse gases, at least in theory, can create positive feedback loops that cause the planet to inordinately heat.

Now of course, I don't know that this is what happened on Venus, but that is at least one explanation for whether or not it's atmosphere was "destroyed."    I am overlooking, of course, that Venus still has an atmosphere, but it has changed.   Thus effectively anything which depended on moderate temperatures that may have existing on Venus at one time, has effectively had Venus's atmosphere "destroyed."

One of the things that is sometimes suggested is that as Venus's temperature rose and the sun got hotter - yes the sun is getting hotter, though this does not account for climate change - much of the water on that planet boiled off, except for that portion bound to sulfur trioxide that made sulfuric acid.

I am opposed to a similar experiment being performed on earth on a finer scale, but apparently I'm in a minority.

My response may seem extreme - and maybe it is - but there do seem to be some feedback loops operating on this planet, and I suggest that their capacity to "destroy" our atmosphere represents a considerable risk, possibly not one worth taking.   We have somewhat less climatic liberty than the people of Venus may enjoy.

by NNadir on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 10:18:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Venus had grossly different initial conditions -- starting with a different composition -- and never had an atmosphere resembling ours. It's geology today, to take a concrete example of the differences, lacks plate tectonics. The atmosphere of Venus is 90 times as massive as ours. It isn't at all a good model for terrestrial greenhouse warming.
------

I'm finding myself on a bit of a campaign to damp down exaggerated catastrophe scenarios. The leap from "huge negative change" to "End of the World" is taken far too easily in discussions in this end of the blogosphere. I propose that we regard climate changes that fall outside the range seen in the last 100 million years as not credible. Besides, cooling the Earth is cheap and easy (only limited guarantees on side-effects, though).

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 03:19:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Greenpeace mentions this usually as an aside; they hardly care at all about air pollution

This is either a disingenious falsehood or reflects on the local branch of Greenpeace familiar to you. In Germany, Greenpeace forms a part of a quite active movement against coal, especially the open-cast mines west of the Ruhr area.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 07:05:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Acid rain was a big issue in Germany, after all.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 07:23:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, though other issues playing a strong role was/is surface destruction (including, of course, some people's homes in villages in the way), fine dust pollution, selling of (low-grade radioactive) ash for fertilizers, and of course the subventions for coal (always a main sticking point between the Green Party and the SocDems).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 08:02:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"disingenuous"

!  Sums up how I feel about NNadir's reply to my request.

Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.

by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 08:17:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I will post, in due course, an analysis of what the Greenpeace inspired and supported "nuclear phase out" has meant to German energy policy.   The short answer is that Germany is neither reducing its climate impact, reducing fossil fuel use, or producing enough renewable energy to meet the claims advertised for the "nuclear phase out."   Again, more detail will follow.

Greenpeace opposes coal in the same way people oppose toy stores by suggesting that only Santa Claus should deliver Christmas gifts.   It is reasonable to ask whether or not perpetuation of the Christmas traditions and appeals to "Santa Claus" has a negative or positive impact on the number of toy stores on the planet.   Banning toy stores will, in fact, have an outcome on the possibility of fulfilling children's Christmas wishes.   (Whether Christmas itself is or is not a good thing is another question entirely.)

Greenpeace does not oppose coal by any means other than saying it opposes coal.   It, in fact, has no strategy for replacing fossil fuels other than to issue regular platitudes.   I can say lots of things, but I will be judged on my actions.

by NNadir on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 10:30:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with you. Greenpeace and its clones are promoting environmental destruction by disseminating false information about nuclear power and misleading honorable people who might sign up with these organizations because they care about the environment and want to do something.

The peculiar result of Greenpeace campaigns has been to encourage the increased burning of fossil fuels.  As you have pointed out elsewhere, Germany is on track to cut back nuclear power while expanding coal-fired power. BTW, I doubt if this scheme is going work in the long run.

Other European countries are having second thoughts about Green-party inspired plans to scrap their nuclear plants.

Please keep posting here, NNadir.

by Plan9 on Wed Jan 10th, 2007 at 01:47:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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