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It does not happen that nuclear energy is in a position right now to cover all of the demand for energy by either first world or third world countries.

That quite phantastic projection (even less likely than broad reduction of consumption, yet commonly repeated in nuke-boosterist cafee klatch) relies on illusory levels of investment and the use of reserves to such a low grade that the environmental destruction from uranium mining would outstrip that from coal. (I once made a calculation on that.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 06:48:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would like to see that calculation.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 06:55:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I couldn't wait so dug up some numbers from various sources in advance. For coal:

  • A 'typical' hard coal powerplant: 8.5 TWh electricity from 2.5 million tons, that's about 0.3 kg mined for 1 kWh.

  • The most recent German brown coal (lignite) powerplant: 1.3 TWh electricity from 1 million tons, that's 0.77 kg mined for 1 kWh.

For nuclear: calculating with 0.85% U in U3O8, and a ratio of feedstock and enriched uranium of 8.5,

  • With the 'current average' ore grade of 0.15%, a current modern plant extracting energy for 45,000 kWh electricity from 1 kg, we get 0.15 kg mined material for 1 kWh.

  • With the 'current average' ore grade of 0.15%, and an EPR expectation of 60,000 kWh electricity from 1 kg, we get 0.11 kg mined material for 1 kWh.

  • With current peak grade of 0.05% and the EPR, we get 0.33 kg mined for 1 kWh.

  • With a cutoff grade of 0.02% and the EPR, we get 0.83 kg mined for 1 kWh.

  • With a 0.0004% grade granite and the EPR, we get 41.7 kg mined for 1 kWh.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 09:21:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Are the grades of ore included in the coal calculation?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 09:26:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brown and hard coal. That's a grade difference.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 09:28:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Regrettably I can't find my file, but I think I can reproduce parts of it as addition to the above. I remember looking at actual mining figures, so I did again.

For 2004, I find total global coal production was 5.524 billion tons, of which three-quarters, around 4.1 billion tons went for the production of 39.8% of a global electricity generation of just under 15,000 TWh, that is around 6,000 TWh. This gives an average of 0.68 kilograms of coal for 1 kWh. The figure is closer to the German brown coal power plant's figure I gave not because of the dominance of low-grade borwn coal (it is less than a fourth) but that of old inefficient plants. If we expect increasing efficiency for nuclear (EPR and all), we can also safely predict increased efficiency for coal, say to 0.55 kg giving 0 kWh.

For Uranium grades, current production (which is insufficient for current needs once material from decommissioned weapons runs out 5-7 years from now) seems to go rarely below 0.1%. (The current maximum is a staggering 18% at a Canadian mine, the minimum 0.035% at a Namibian mine.) But IAEA considers recoverable proven reserves those below $135/kgU, while most production is below $50/kgU. For a greatly broadened share of nuclear, these (and probably even more expensive) reserves have to be tapped. Unfortunately, in my current search I haven't found numbers on the grade of proven reserves close to $135/kgU, only found single examples that trend to above 0.01%.

At any rate, the figures for mined tonnage for coal and greatly increased non-breeder, non-thorium nuclear are in the same range.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 05:38:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, one more figure: 2005 global average yield in nuclear plants was around 38,500 kWh from 1 kg of lightly enriched uranium.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 05:46:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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