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I should say the EU should be more concerned about the genie being let out of the bottle than anything Russia will do. The Serbs are a problem only inasmuch as the close quarters between Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo may lead to a flare-up of violence, as they did in 2004. In that case, you may very well see Serbia intervene only along the northern border.
I have very little faith that UNMIK or NATO or the EU battlegroups can effectively quell any violent outbreak. That has NEVER been their manner of operating in the past, and in fact, most often, international forces barrack and stay out of the fighting.
The whole Balkan scene from 1991 until today is a premium example of horrendously conducted diplomacy, and each time someone thinks they have the answer, yet another flare-up begins. EU diplomacy is all about sticking your finger in the dike.
Look at what recognition without regard for ethnic autonomy has yielded.
Americans are opportunists. Once all hell broke loose, they inserted themselves into the fracas. But the initial dunderheaded moves were at least partially the responsibility of the EU. You can't pretend this was an American plan circa 1990.
You'll have to tell me why the Americans dithered, what they could have hoped to gain by dithering. In fact, many point to the Reagan-Neo/Con connections to Yugo defense structures as a reason why the US actually favored the Serbs in the 1980s.
Here, read the NY Times on the US's positioning:
On a previous occasion UpstateNY has given an account of American diplomatic actions in the Balkans, notably by James Rubin but also by others, so I am surprised that he would blame the EU. However the EU's lack of foreign policy and diplomatic coordination among member states made matters worse, especially in the early days of the war.
We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
I was only pointing out that EU diplomacy in the region always seems hasty, ill-considered, tendentious, and even arrogant.
The US was totally wrong on Kosovo. They were also bad on Bosnia but only from midway through to the end. Europe stumbled from 1990-1991 until the end of Bosnia.
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