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How would you explain then the United States' deep reticence to recognizing Croatia and Slovenia? The US was at diplomatic loggerheads with the EU and especially Germany on these issues back in 1991. If they wanted disintegration, why wouldn't they have supported recognition back then?
I'm not saying I disagree with your theory, precisely, but I do feel as though the US acted more out of opportunism than long-standing policy.
Why was Baker so adamantly opposed to German recognition in the first place? I would encourage you to look at US military ties with the Yugoslavian Army in the 1980s, and US defense industry ties with Yugoslavia. Milosevic may be a neat parallel for the Saddam Hussein of the 80s. Both intricately linked with American military-industrial base. Ronald Reagan's Dep. Secretary of State, Lawrence Eagleburger, had his hand in many Serbian affairs.
I'm still of the opinion that the US scuttled both Vance-Owen and Rambouillet for other reasons. Humpty-dumpty fell off the wall, and the US recognized it and inserted themselves into the fray. You also have to remember that many EU and US liberals had absolutely no love for the Vance-Owen plan. Samantha Powers, a lead voice against the Bosnian genocide, called the plan a treachery, one that rewarded the Serbs and bought them time (of course, she doesn't analyze the plan's remarkable similarity to the Dayton Plan).
Madeleine Albright's behavior can be easily explained as well. She clearly had revenge on her mind, and she was shocked when the Serbs initially agreed to the harsh demands of Rambouillet. Yes, I know that Bondsteel was already in the works, but it would have been actualized even if there had been an agreement a Rambouillet. This is the same woman whose infamous utterances ("Yes, sanctions are worth the death of 500,000 Iraqi children," and then to Colin Powell, "What good is your army if you're afraid to use it?" and finally, "Winter will come early to Kosovo," a few days BEFORE the Racak massacre) prove that she has very little tact and even worse diplomatic skills. Isn't it easily explainable that she was just a fuck-up?
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