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Send an email one day  to 1000 people - 500 saying "the stock market will go up today", 500 saying, "the stock market will go down today". The next day, send only 500 emails, to those who received the correct prediction, and do the same again: send "up today" to 250, "down today" to 250.

And so forth. After 10 days, you'll have sent the correct prediction for 10 consecutive days to one person. There's a good chance that this person will listen to your advice for the next day.

Overperformance by one fund over 10 years is not necessarily significant. It is likely, to a large extent, to be luck. A lot of luck, sure, but it is normal for a small number of investors, as shown above, to have that kind of luck.

The past is not a predictor of the future on the markets

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Dec 22nd, 2007 at 11:19:38 AM EST

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