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A friend who pays a lot of attention to Pakistan (but who is actually Indian, and who cannot be considered a neutral observer) is already convinced that Musharraf is behind it. I suspect many of Bhutto's supporters will be similarly convinced.
I'm not even sure that a full military dictatorship can save the day for the simple reason that all it will do is try to put a lid on pressures that are already far beyond such control.
An awful lot of people are going to die in the next few weeks and there's bugger all anyone can do to stop it. However, the presence of the nuclear weapons throws a nasty complication into the mix. I suspect that america and others may have to step in and clear up we helped create, or at least get the nukes out. And that will put us into an interesting situation vis a vis Saudi Arabia as it's their people we absolutely need to exterminate (I use the word deliberately). keep to the Fen Causeway
Plus, Islamic militants had already promised to kill her for the crime of being female and a politician. Suicide bombers aren't the army's m.o, but they are those of islamists. So I guess we have to look at the Wahabi madrassas for the originators of this. keep to the Fen Causeway
Given their promise to kill her, it sounds like the work of militants, but we'll see. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
My guess is on radical circles inside the ISI. "If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
or is that what you're supposed to think? 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
As for the investigation... well, that assumes the integrity of the officials involved, doesn't it? If people believe that the state could have been involved, do you think they're going to believe what the state's own forensic investigators say about who did it? Or believe the FBI's or Scotland Yard's investigators, if they were to be invited in?
In Lebanon, this is why they appointed the UN investigator into the Hariri assassination, and why they had several different forensic teams from different countries inspecting the evidence; but that also can prove problematic in different ways.
If Pakistan does not become a nuclear armed Islamic caliphate in the next few years, it will owe more to the good sense of the Pakistani people than the wisdom of western policy.
Being a "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" type, I'm inclined to assume Helen is right -- that the gravity of the situation hasn't yet set in, and that we're looking at a bloodbath in Pakistan between rival factions. It's clear to me that Musharraf holding things together for the time being is not guaranteed.
The nuclear weapons issue is frightening in the sense that we don't know what the ultimate outcome of this will be. But I disagree with Helen about America, Europe and others getting involved, at least in any role involving the military, because the capacity to get involved simply isn't there. That said, Pakistanis are not children, and they're more sophisticated than the western press gives them credit for. I don't think Pakistan is likely to be taken over by the looney toons, which is obviously what most people are thinking about when they refer to the nukes. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
But I disagree with Helen about America, Europe and others getting involved, at least in any role involving the military, because the capacity to get involved simply isn't there.
Maybe not in terms of becoming a peacekeeping force, but the west has been increasingly uncomfortable with a nuclear armed pakistan as it became obvious the country was a shambles with dangerous elements beoming influential. I imagine they might come in to withdraw the weaponry to a safer place.
That said, Pakistanis are not children, and they're more sophisticated than the western press gives them credit for. I don't think Pakistan is likely to be taken over by the looney toons, which is obviously what most people are thinking about when they refer to the nukes.
Just as the americans have Bush, the sophistication of the people is moot when the leaders, there by force of arms, are fools. And, let there be no doubt, there are influential, powerful and armed factions within Pakistan who are indistinguishable from looney toons. It's certainly becoming obvious that Pakistan cannot be governed without, at least, the passivity of the wahabinist madrassas.
Yet what will be the price of such passivity ? The middle classes in paklistan has divvied up power and corruption between them to such an extent that having their lives and freedoms constrained by "looney tunes" may be a force for destabilisation or at least the economic gutting of the country in the medium term. so any settlement now will create problems further down.
And any hope of peace in the middle east will be impossible without a peaceful pakistan. India will mobilize to Kashmir. Afghanistan will become a tinder box.
The only good thing may be that Al-qaeda may become distracted from Iraq, but as their influence there is fading, that may not matter so much. keep to the Fen Causeway
Where is the West going to get the manpower to go grab the weapons? And that also works with one of two assumptions: (1) that the Pakistani military is simply going to allow them to do this, or (2) that the western powers are simply going to do away with the Pakistani military -- again, with what manpower? -- in order to get at the weapons. Neither of these options seems incredibly likely, especially if there is the possibility you noted of India moving. (India might like to do this, but I don't see it happening.) Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
how this pans out nobody can know, but it will be violent and bloody. keep to the Fen Causeway
Nothing will happen. the system is so cahotic than adding a little bit of more noise is absolutely irrelevant.. in the sense that it can lead to anywhere int he phase . but actually there is no chance from before to after.
So the possibilities of complete cahos and complete order in Pakistan remain roughly the same.
The probabilities of a Pakistan with a pseudo-control demcoracy (which is what a lot of the western elite think it is the best) are as low as before.. but hardly lower.
The multiple Paksitani factions will still have a personal dynamics.. and there is as change now of subrevolt or semirevolt or a gathering of revolts.. but I think the same probabilities than before.
So...: I guess to sum up.. I know nothing, I am from barcelona.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
I wanted to ask for some time: is this the Fawlty Towers reference, and if yes is it because of ET, or have you seen it? *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
"No se nada.. soy de Mexico"... because here in catalonia , he was from mexico, not from Barcelona. And he was the only speaking spanish because the rest was speaking in catalan (doubling from english).
LOL! That's an extra twist on it... *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
al qaeda or islamic radicals would have struck at the general, not an out of power politician.
I haven't been able to find one in the Western media. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
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