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There's little doubt that the Iranians have free run of much of Iraq; are supplying arms and ammunition to Shi'a militias; and are committed to seeing the United States fail in that country. Iran already essentially owns Basra as well as several other large Shi'a towns in the south. And, unlike our own, Iranian interests in Iraq are unambiguous. In 2004, when I was in Qum, an influential Iranian cleric, Ayatollah Sanae, told me with chilling clarity: Should the situation in Iraq deteriorate to the point that the Shi'a are seriously threatened, Iran will have no choice but to step in militarily. Even, he made clear, at the risk of American retaliation.
In the article, he mentions the "the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's Quds force", which he describes as
virtually impenetrable. Secretive and disciplined, the Quds force is more a cult than anything else. Its members are all believers, meticulously selected, vetted and controlled. Another reason we'll probably never catch the Quds force red handed is that it communicates sensitive information by courier. No blogs or calling home to brag to mom about everything they're doing in Iraq for Allah and Iran.
Thus, since these Quds are too secretive to give Washington the "smoking gun" they need to justify an attack on Iran,
If indeed a confrontation is in the cards, I don't see that the Administration has a choice other than to provoke an incident -- force the Iranians to fire back in the clear light of day, letting the United States invoke self defense, U.N. Article 51. Options might include arresting or assassinating the Mahdi Army leader Moqtada Al-Sadr, chasing Iranians in hot pursuit across their border, or, more bluntly, bombing a Quds Force base in Iran in the name of force protection.
I don't think these explosively formed penetrators are going to cut it as a casus belli which will rally the American people around the Stars & Stripes for war again.
Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
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