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..., according to Daniela Schwarzer and Sebastian Dullien the rates will be bad for Portugal and Italy plus economies with low domestic demand (read Germany?). The reason given for this is that Portugal and Italy are in more direct competition with Asian countries.

I was looking at the Spanish Institute for Foreign Trade (ICEX) webpages, which helps SPanish companies wishing to conduct business abroad, and looking at news items pertaining to the leatherworking sector, there was a lot of profiling of North African and Latin American countries. My interpretation of that (backed by some anecdotal evidence from press articles online) is that the Spanish leatherworking industry is dying off, except for high-end, high-quality manufacturing for major brands, and that the low-price range manufacturers are moving their operations abroad in an attempt to cut their labour costs to compete with China.

This is a point that is often made about Germany, but it seems to be true for al of the European productive economy, and it is that cheap labour abroad is forcing european producers to concentrate on high-quality, high-value-added, high-margin, low-volume products. Germany's capital goods are usually the prime example of this, but I think organic food and high-quality leatherworking can also follow the same pattern. There is still room for products made in europe, but they are in niche markets.

In the US, outsourcing seems to have hollowed out entire inductrial sectors to the point that not even the high-end manufacturing or even the design are carried out in the US any longer, just the branding. I am concern about Europe's ability to retain some manufacturing base in the sectors that are now being outsourced, because without contact with manufacturing one quickly loses the expertise necessary for doing the high-end stuff, or the design.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 04:42:37 AM EST
I did some quick research on this capital goods thing with the German industry (through the EU's market access database). With regard to extra-EU trade, the export balance in 2005 for...

Chapter 84      NUCLEAR REACTORS, BOILERS, MACHINERY AND MECHANICAL APPLIANCES; PARTS THEREOF

Is 35.8 billion (imports 33.2 billion, exports 69 billion)

Chapter 85      ELECTRICAL MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT AND PARTS THEREOF; SOUND RECORDERS AND REPRODUCERS, TELEVISION IMAGE AND SOUND RECORDERS AND REPRODUCERS, AND PARTS AND ACCESSORIES OF SUCH ARTICLES

Is -0.7 billion (imports 36.5 billion, exports 35.8 billion; note that this includes only some capital goods and almost all consumer electronics)

Chapter 87      VEHICLES OTHER THAN RAILWAY OR TRAMWAY ROLLING STOCK, AND PARTS AND ACCESSORIES THEREOF

Is 44 billion (imports 9.5 billion, exports 53.5 billion)

So, the car & other land vehicles industry still accounts for a larger part of the surplus. Of course, relatively speaking these are also low-volume products and they definitely are high-value-added.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 06:24:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Market Access Database - YOUR GUIDE TO CRACKING WORLD MARKETS

Wow, I had no idea that existed...

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 06:29:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They also have something like that for developing country exporters (called the Export Helpdesk). The data ultimately comes from eurostat, but I haven't been able to find comprehensive data there (including intra-EU/intra-Eurozone trade).
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 06:36:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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