This is actually the way I understood and answered the poll: 500, just as today, because we'll have a hard time replacing the ageing units, even if all governments try as hard as they can to get their nukes (which most already do, and others will make up their mind pretty soon).

Of course, newer reactors will be like the EPR: over 1.5 GW, versus 500-800 for many old units in the US for instance. So the total capacity will increase. Uranium consumption will not increase that much, because newer reactors have better yields, better breeding ratios, they're all designed to run on MOX, etc...

It is also because of all these reasons that I don't believe seriously that any U shortage will happen this century. I also believe nukes won't help much those who don't already have them running today (like France).

Pierre