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We had a story about how well the markets' implied probabilities predict future price movements, and the answer was not too well.

Colman: A very murky crystal ball. (May 19th, 2006)

The fact is that the "market expectation" has implied probabilities of future movements that bear little relationship with the likelihoods of actual events.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 27th, 2007 at 05:13:19 AM EST
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