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And even if everyone had the same info, they don't all draw the same conclusions.  "everyone knew" that the dollar/euro at $1.35 was just a stopping point on the way to the gutter.  Then it traded back in for 2 years.    

by HiD on Tue Mar 27th, 2007 at 05:17:17 AM EST
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And even if they all draw the same conclusions not everyone has the same risk aversion, the same return requirements, the same access to credit, or the same depth of pockets.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 27th, 2007 at 05:28:27 AM EST
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credit hasn't been an issue lately.  the guys with reputations can raise a billion or 2 before lunch.  It's scary how much money is slushing around.
by HiD on Tue Mar 27th, 2007 at 05:39:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Okay, so you can raise a billion in 3 hours. How much money can all the other fast players put through without tapping into their credit in those 3 hours?

And also, not everyone is a "guy with reputation". Which is only more to support my claim that the market is not as simple as the guys in mathematical finance need to believe it is so their models are even tractable with a supercomputer.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 27th, 2007 at 05:43:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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