well, these things are hard to call, even in retrospect.  economics is after all more social science than science.  business and investing as well.  but it makes it a lot of fun, imho.

btw, I find your comments and insight very valuable.  you're obviously a very bright guy, and I think come at things from a different experience base than mine.  one learns a lot from bright people with a different perspecitve,,,,that was a valuable lesson for me that I learned early in life.  Whew, at least I learned something early in life.