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Long Bets | 4 comments (4 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Long Bets (none / 1)
More practical perhaps, but still indicative of longer term prediction ability, are the electronic trade markets Intrade.com. You can bet on many things: future presidential elections, changes in financial indices, war affairs, legal outcomes, sport events, etc.

Here are how things stand at this moment:

Will Dow Jones IA close this year at 12500 or higher?  44% chance

Will US or Israel strike Iran this year? 22%

Wil dick Cheney announce his resignation this year? 24%

Will a Democrat win the US 2008 Presidential election? 56%

2008 Democratic Nomination:
Clinton: 44%
Obama: 30%
Gore: 12%

Will Bush pardon Libby (on at least one count)?
This year: 20%
By the end of his term: 62%

by das monde on Thu Mar 8th, 2007 at 11:31:14 PM EST

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Long Bets | 4 comments (4 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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