Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
More practical perhaps, but still indicative of longer term prediction ability, are the electronic trade markets Intrade.com. You can bet on many things: future presidential elections, changes in financial indices, war affairs, legal outcomes, sport events, etc.

Here are how things stand at this moment:

Will Dow Jones IA close this year at 12500 or higher?  44% chance

Will US or Israel strike Iran this year? 22%

Wil dick Cheney announce his resignation this year? 24%

Will a Democrat win the US 2008 Presidential election? 56%

2008 Democratic Nomination:
Clinton: 44%
Obama: 30%
Gore: 12%

Will Bush pardon Libby (on at least one count)?
This year: 20%
By the end of his term: 62%

by das monde on Thu Mar 8th, 2007 at 11:31:14 PM EST

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