Royal would win. were it not for the +65. | 83 comments (83 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Royal would win. were it not for the +65. (none / 1)

This is fascinating. In the US, we have had a couple of articles over the past few years predicting an upcoming generational war over the issues of social security and medicare, as the baby boom generation retires. (sorry I can't link to any of these, maybe I'll search later.) The premise being that these social programs will put heavy burdens on the younger generations as the bulge of baby boomers retire. But the oldest baby boomers are 61 this year, and social security retirement for that age group is 66. In addition, tax revenues supporting social security are, I believe, projected to remain positive, tax revenue versus expenditures, until 2018. So the sense has been we're still a long time away from this, and it's a problem for someone else to handle--the "kick the can down the road" approach of our spineless Congress.

I believe retirement is a little earlier in France, but France and the US have similar demographics. So perhaps this issue is presenting itself earlier in France? Are there parts in the Royal platform that would make retirees worried about the ability of the French economy to support them in retirement. Or maybe the same idea asked differently, are there platforms in the Sarko candidacy that might make the retirees feel more comfortable that money will be there for them in their retirement?

by wchurchill on Sat Apr 28th, 2007 at 09:24:01 PM EST

One important difference (4.00 / 2)

between the U.S. and Europe when it comes to voting behavior and age is that in Europe, retirees almost always vote more conservative than the rest of the electorate, whereas in the U.S., that is at the very least less so, and depending on the part of the country and the issues that dominate the elections, the elderly may well prefer Democrats over Rethugs by significant margins. The most important reason for this difference is the fact that Democrats guarantee the continuation of social service programs whereas Repubs perennially vow to axe them. The debate over social services has a fundamentally different dynamics in Europe, and one part of that is that conservative parties generally present themselves as guarantors of the retirement benefits and healthcare of the oldsters. A secondary issue is of course the experience of the Greatest Generation in the U.S. - especially those who have seen both WWII and the Great Depression before it. So many of these folks will always have an FDR Democrat somewhere in them.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)

by brainwave on Sat Apr 28th, 2007 at 10:49:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Royal would win. were it not for the +65. (4.00 / 5)

I think it has nothing to do with economics, actually.

It has to do with fear of foreigners - which I imagine is highest amongst older french generations, where racism is probably more acceptable, and they have lived at least part of their life in a France that had very few non-European immigrants. And relatedly, it has to do with "law and order" and the fact that Sarkozy is seen as having a hard hand on these kind of issues, at least more so than Royal.

So its down to these two factors, I think.

by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Sun Apr 29th, 2007 at 01:45:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Royal would win. were it not for the +65. (4.00 / 3)

You nailed it: it comes down to fear. Fear of loss of identity -- the question of l'identité nationale -- and the fear of being personally harmed by violence and crime.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Sun Apr 29th, 2007 at 02:01:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Royal would win. were it not for the +65. (4.00 / 3)

Indeed: "It's not tolerance we need, but a way of thinking that allows us to get outside of the boxes they want to lock us in..." (Alessi Dell'Umbria in reaction to the riots last year).

The national myth (and this includes the idea that "the state is always right" mixed with white identity and catholicism), is fueling this. The Left, which falls on the statist side, gives free reign to internal institutions like the CRS in the name of security and doesn't thoroughly question the role of institutions in causing divisive inequality in France. The Right uses class difference and mixes it with extremely potent racial differences based on some vague notion that there has been a monolithic "France" since Astrix roamed its woods.

If folks would just call the Edict de Nantes "Louis XIV's Final Solution," then maybe what were fighting for would become clearer.

I like Asterix, be he wasn't French! If people would just get beyond their national myths, then maybe democracy could work.

Anyway, waking thoughts from the u.s. west coast.

by andrethegiant on Sun Apr 29th, 2007 at 10:57:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Royal would win. were it not for the +65. (none / 1)

If people would just get beyond their national myths, then maybe democracy could work.

I like them West Coast thoughts. Keep them coming.

Having said that, can you explain more what you meant by this:

The Left, which falls on the statist side, gives free reign to internal institutions like the CRS in the name of security and doesn't thoroughly question the role of institutions in causing divisive inequality in France.

I am guessing that an example of this would be the CRS focusing on non-whites in discharing their "crowd and riot control" duties?

Does the left in France really support giving the CRS that much leeway to execute its functions as an organ of the state?

Do you think that diversifying these police forces ethnically could help ameliorate the problem of "causing divisive inequality in France"?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Sun Apr 29th, 2007 at 11:16:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Royal would win. were it not for the +65. (none / 1)

"Do you think that diversifying these police forces ethnically could help ameliorate the problem of "causing divisive inequality in France"

Interesting question. I would be interested in an answer too, especially since I read reader´s comments of a Libération article alluding at studies/opinions about some unexpected problems arising from having now some minorities in the police force. Even if only in small numbers so far.
Unfortunately it was only an allusion and I couldn´t gather what the problem was.

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Sun Apr 29th, 2007 at 04:58:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Law and Order (4.00 / 2)

I think it has nothing to do with economics, actually.

So its down to these two factors, I think.

by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Sun Apr 29th, 2007 at 01:46:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Royal would win. were it not for the +65. | 83 comments (83 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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