Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Latest is Labour 43, SNP 45, LibDems 16, Conservatives 15 and Greens 2, Independent (Margo McDonald = SNP) 1.

That's with all the 73 "First Past the Post" Constituencies declared.

Then there are 7 out of 8 regions where second votes count in regional "lists" of candidates, with another 49 seats decided and 5 more to go.

Given that the remaining region is (I think!) a rural one where Labour tends to trail, I think we are going to see SNP about three or four seats ahead of Labour with Margo McDonald adding one to SNP de facto.


No-one would cut a deal with the Conservatives: period. So that puts the LibDems in as "Kingmakers".

They have said they'll talk first to the party with the most seats. That's the SNP, and if he can't agree  terms with them I think LibDems leader Nichol Stephens could ask for the post of First Minister as the price of leaving Labour in power.

He has said that he will not back SNP if they are committed to a referendum on Independence, so we can expect some creativity between Alex Salmond (who would not give up the post of First Minister to God himself) and Stephens - maybe along the lines of a Constitutional Convention or similar, with a vote scheduled to a coincide with the next election.

The last region should come in any time (I've had to update this twice before even posting it!)

Interesting times.

Biggest losers? The fringe parties, particularly the Greens.

Winners? The SNP of course, but I bet Nichol Stephens will have a big smile on his face when he goes to bed tonight as well.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri May 4th, 2007 at 12:56:56 PM EST

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