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Thanks a million for this diary.  The Belgian electoral system is fascinating.

Forgive me if I'm about to ask some dumb questions.  So there are only two districts -- Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorden plus the two districts mentioned in note 2 -- where both the Flemish and Walloon parties are on the ballots?  Do the ideologically aligned parties from the two language groups automatically caucus together, or form coalitions?  Isn't there a small German-speaking community, and where do they fall in the electoral geography?  Why are the polls in Brussels only among the French-speaking community?

Now for non-logistical question... why has the PM not been able to govern effectively?  Because that seems like quite a dramatic drop in popularity.

Sorry to pelt you with questions, but as I said, I think the system is really interesting, and I know not very much about it.

Thanks again for the diary!  And here's hoping that it won't swing too far rightward.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Thu Jun 7th, 2007 at 06:25:21 PM EST
Your questions aren't dumb. I'd like to find out about these things as well :-)

I think that being on a list requires registration in a district, so that, yes, there are only three districts where both the Flemish and Walloon parties are on the ballot. Ideologically aligned parties across language groups don't automatically form coalitions. There's quite some politics involved. But I think that practically, they will still end up doing so.

There is a small German-speaking community, but it is too small to field its own political party for the elections. It does have a separate senator in the senate, otherwise it votes in the Walloon district in which it lives. As Belgium is a federal state, the German community also has a large degree of self-governance.

The poll in Brussels was only with regard to the French-speaking parties. I just found another poll of the Dutch-speaking parties, but that one is already over two weeks ago.

Why Verhofstadt has not been able to govern effectively is stuff for another diary.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:29:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is the latter poll significantly different from the more recent poll of the Flemish areas?

And what are the numbers of Ecolo in Brussels/French part?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:37:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ecolo is polling at 10.5% in B-H-V. The Dutch-Speaking poll (nl) in B-H-V gives 20% to Open VLD, 15% to SP.a - Spirit and 10% to Groen!. Christian Dems and Vlaams Belang are virtually equal to the national polls.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 04:00:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks!  And yes, I did mean three districts, I just seem to be a little addition-impared at the moment.  :-[

It doesn't make a lot of sense to me to poll only one language group or another at a time in a mixed district like Brussels.  That just wouldn't tell you very much about how the seats will break down.  It seems obvious to me that they'd need to poll the entire district about all the candidates on the ballot to get a real sense of who's going to win what.  Am I missing something?  What a curious decision.

Has there ever been a party that attempted to win support from (or field candidates in) both the Flemish and Walloon communities?  In other words, crossing the linguistic divide to talk about issues that are of concern to all Belgians?  Or is the linguistic identity too central to how people perceive their interests to allow that?

I'm just curious about that because it reminds me a bit of Lebanon....  Hopefully not as volatile, though.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 05:40:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Linguistic identity is too singular. Actually, if I'm not mistaken there used to be national parties before the 1970s, when federalisation set it. But right now there are two completely different communities on diverging economic paths and with completely separated media environments. There is a Dutch language article about this in the Dutch daily NRC. A translated quote:
There is no Belgian media. A political scientist from Antwerp - Dave Sinardet - has researched how much attention there is in the TV news for events across the language border: 3 percent. Even French-speaking ministers of the Belgian government get little time in the Flemish TV, and vice versa. "It is de facto more useful for a Flemish politican to visit the pub around the corner on a sunday afternoon than to go to the studios of RTBF", Sinardet writes in a recently published book (What Belgium stands for).
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 05:57:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow.  It is like Lebanon, but with three groups instead of 18.

right now there are two completely different communities on diverging economic paths and with completely separated media environments.

I hope you'll pardon me for saying this, but that doesn't sound terribly sustainable.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 06:07:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is part of the reason why Verhofstadt's government will probably lose its majority.

(As a clarification: I'm writing this as a Dutchman in Berlin. I can't possibly be offended by anything said about the Belgians. I also have the difficulty of analysing a system I'm not all that familiar with from a distance, but I have a slightly better access to information as I can follow the Dutch-speaking press. I think we have some Belgian readers, like ElcoB IIRC, and I hope they can give additional information)

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 06:17:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well a double thanks for your effort, then!  I hope our Belgian readers will chime in.  And I hope none of them are offended by my comment either....
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 06:26:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, good description.

diverging economic paths..

In general this is true (employement, growth...), however this is exagerated most of the time for political gains.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 11:44:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't this pillarisation system look a lot like Lebanon's, where each religious community votes on a different day and has a separate allocation of seats, and separate parties?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 12:45:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pillarisation in Belgium is largely gone and had lost most of his significance.
A sign for this is defection of politicians from one party to another, we see it now in all directions.


The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not in the direction of Dutch to French-speaking or vice versa, or do you?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think pillarisation referred specifically to religious affiliation, not linguistic identity?
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:34:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought in the Netherlands it was religious and in Belgium linguistic, but it's quite confusing.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:40:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pillarisation in Belgium had nothing to do with language.
A catholic was a catholic, socialist-socialist..etcetra..

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:48:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But in addition there were separate French and Dutch Catholic and Socialist parties, right?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:49:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are now, since the federalisation started in the 1970's. Before we had national parties , except for nationalist parties and the greens who only emerged later.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 02:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dutch- French- speaking is about communities and regions , remember Belgium is a federalised country. But when one moves from one region to another he can take part in political life.
 

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:37:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It does look similar to Lebanon's confessional system, but Lebanon has also assigned specific national institutions to specific confessional groups, for example the President is always a Maronite, the Prime Minister always a Sunni, the speaker of Parliament always a Shia, etc., which the pillarisation system doesn't seem to have done.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:32:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However, at least according to wikipedia the linguistic communities have a measure of veto power.
Another important characteristic of Belgian national politics is the highly federal nature of decision making. Important decisions require both a national majority (2/3 for constitutional changes), as well as majorities in the two main language groups. On top of that, both these communities can activate 'alarm bell'-procedures, delaying changes. In addition, there are no national parties to speak of. As a result of this, Belgian decision making can be slow and expensive. On top, it tends to significantly favour the more conservative parties. Given the historically very high public expenditure, and the very strict central control over taxation, even for revenues going to regions and communities, the tendency of Belgian governments to lower taxation and especially labour charges has been limited, at least if compared to radical-liberal approaches followed by certain other countries.
This reminds me of the Stormont agreement
The Northern Ireland [Assembly] has two primary mechanisms to guarantee power-sharing. The first is the manner in which ministers are appointed to the Northern Ireland Executive. These are not nominated by a simple majority vote. Rather all parties with a significant number of seats are entitled to at least one minister, and ministerial portfolios are divided among the parties in proportion to their strength in the Assembly, through a method known as the d'Hondt system. The second power-sharing mechanism is the requirement that certain resolutions must receive "cross community support", or the support of a minimum number of MLAs from both communities, to be passed by the Assembly. Every MLA is officially designated as either "nationalist", "Unionist" or "non-aligned". The election of the First and Deputy First Ministers, the election of the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, any changes to the standing orders and the adoption of certain money bills must all occur with cross-community support. The election of the First and Deputy First Ministers must occur by parallel consent but in all other cases either form of cross community support is acceptable. In addition to votes on these subjects any vote taken by the Assembly can be made dependent on cross-community support if at least thirty MLAs present the Speaker with a "petition of concern" before the vote is taken. This means, in effect, that, provided enough MLAs from a given community agree, each of the two communities represented in the Assembly can exercise a veto over its decisions.

Each MLA is free to designate themselves as "nationalist", "unionist" or "other" as they see fit, the only requirement being that no member may change their designation more than once during an Assembly session. The power-sharing system thus depends on the honesty of its participants. The system has been criticised by some, in particular the cross-community Alliance Party, as entrenching sectarian divisions. Alliance favours a change that would involve an end to official designations of identity and the taking of important votes on the basis of an ordinary super-majority. A particular bone of contention for them is that members designated as "other" have less say in the election of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister, as it is decided by parallel consent.

I suppose Northern Ireland is a closer parallel to Lebanon.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:39:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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