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Looking at Wiki's election calendar, it seems the upcoming Belgian and French elections are the last scheduled parliamentary elections in the EU until the Slovenian elections in October 2008...
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Thu Jun 7th, 2007 at 06:13:23 PM EST
There will be elections in Spain before Slovenia, but there's no fixed date, same goes for Greece and probably Lithuania, and I bet Romania will have early elections well before that.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:52:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It looks like Greece will probably have early election somewhere between late Spetember-late October as well...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 05:05:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Åland Islands (a Finnish autonomous region) will be holding elections for their regional parliament in October as well, though I'm not sure if that's before or after Slovenia. Might get interesting if the separatist party makes large gains.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 05:07:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Er, though they are in 2007, not 2008. I seem to have lost my ability to parse numerical values...I blame global warming ;)

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 05:18:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I should have said the last scheduled national parliamentary elections (that's 3 qualifiers for ya!).

There will also be a few elections in some of the states of Germany, which could be very important for the balance of power internally in Germany. But the people in the Council of Ministers and in the European Council will stay the same for over a year and three months.

(More qualifiers: Depending upon the date of elections in Greece/Spain, and if no government falls. Plus Slovenia also elects a president in December this year but I don't know what his role in the EU institutions is, more like the French president (all-decisive) or more like the German president (none at all))

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 05:25:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
AFAIK it's between the two, like, say, in Austria.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 06:15:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And we're still waiting to see what sort of coalition forms in Ireland. Not that it'll matter much either way.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 06:11:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow, nice diary.
I couldn't reach the site of ET until some minutes ago.
We're expecting results of the latest poll within an hour.  I'll come back with the results later.
For the moment I have only this comment:
  • Guy Verhofstadt's Open VLD is a left-liberal party....
    uh uh....this are the marketista's, Guy couldn't wait to congratulate Sarkozy....

  • Somehow you forgot to mention the Flemish green party, 'GROEN!'.  There is a nice TV-spot on Youtube.


The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 11:37:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Did mention Groen!. But I didn't link the Wiki before. The spot I don't know.

Wiki mentions the following on the VLD:

Ideologically, the VLD started as a right-wing, somewhat Thatcherite party under its founder, Guy Verhofstadt. On economic issues the VLD rapidly became more centrist and gave up much of its free-market approach. Party chairman Bart Somers called in November 2006 for a "revolution" within the party, saying that "a liberal party," like the VLD, "can only be progressive and social."
I guess that how you rate the stance of a party depends to some extent on where you're coming from, but I don't think the Open VLD is a bunch of marketistas. Of course they are still more oriented towards the market than most European social democrats (as is also the case with the left wing of the Democratic party, or the British LibDems). I'd place them on the left rather than on the centre largely on the basis of their social agenda.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks a million for this diary.  The Belgian electoral system is fascinating.

Forgive me if I'm about to ask some dumb questions.  So there are only two districts -- Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorden plus the two districts mentioned in note 2 -- where both the Flemish and Walloon parties are on the ballots?  Do the ideologically aligned parties from the two language groups automatically caucus together, or form coalitions?  Isn't there a small German-speaking community, and where do they fall in the electoral geography?  Why are the polls in Brussels only among the French-speaking community?

Now for non-logistical question... why has the PM not been able to govern effectively?  Because that seems like quite a dramatic drop in popularity.

Sorry to pelt you with questions, but as I said, I think the system is really interesting, and I know not very much about it.

Thanks again for the diary!  And here's hoping that it won't swing too far rightward.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Thu Jun 7th, 2007 at 06:25:21 PM EST
Your questions aren't dumb. I'd like to find out about these things as well :-)

I think that being on a list requires registration in a district, so that, yes, there are only three districts where both the Flemish and Walloon parties are on the ballot. Ideologically aligned parties across language groups don't automatically form coalitions. There's quite some politics involved. But I think that practically, they will still end up doing so.

There is a small German-speaking community, but it is too small to field its own political party for the elections. It does have a separate senator in the senate, otherwise it votes in the Walloon district in which it lives. As Belgium is a federal state, the German community also has a large degree of self-governance.

The poll in Brussels was only with regard to the French-speaking parties. I just found another poll of the Dutch-speaking parties, but that one is already over two weeks ago.

Why Verhofstadt has not been able to govern effectively is stuff for another diary.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:29:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is the latter poll significantly different from the more recent poll of the Flemish areas?

And what are the numbers of Ecolo in Brussels/French part?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:37:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ecolo is polling at 10.5% in B-H-V. The Dutch-Speaking poll (nl) in B-H-V gives 20% to Open VLD, 15% to SP.a - Spirit and 10% to Groen!. Christian Dems and Vlaams Belang are virtually equal to the national polls.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 04:00:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks!  And yes, I did mean three districts, I just seem to be a little addition-impared at the moment.  :-[

It doesn't make a lot of sense to me to poll only one language group or another at a time in a mixed district like Brussels.  That just wouldn't tell you very much about how the seats will break down.  It seems obvious to me that they'd need to poll the entire district about all the candidates on the ballot to get a real sense of who's going to win what.  Am I missing something?  What a curious decision.

Has there ever been a party that attempted to win support from (or field candidates in) both the Flemish and Walloon communities?  In other words, crossing the linguistic divide to talk about issues that are of concern to all Belgians?  Or is the linguistic identity too central to how people perceive their interests to allow that?

I'm just curious about that because it reminds me a bit of Lebanon....  Hopefully not as volatile, though.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 05:40:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Linguistic identity is too singular. Actually, if I'm not mistaken there used to be national parties before the 1970s, when federalisation set it. But right now there are two completely different communities on diverging economic paths and with completely separated media environments. There is a Dutch language article about this in the Dutch daily NRC. A translated quote:
There is no Belgian media. A political scientist from Antwerp - Dave Sinardet - has researched how much attention there is in the TV news for events across the language border: 3 percent. Even French-speaking ministers of the Belgian government get little time in the Flemish TV, and vice versa. "It is de facto more useful for a Flemish politican to visit the pub around the corner on a sunday afternoon than to go to the studios of RTBF", Sinardet writes in a recently published book (What Belgium stands for).
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 05:57:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow.  It is like Lebanon, but with three groups instead of 18.

right now there are two completely different communities on diverging economic paths and with completely separated media environments.

I hope you'll pardon me for saying this, but that doesn't sound terribly sustainable.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 06:07:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is part of the reason why Verhofstadt's government will probably lose its majority.

(As a clarification: I'm writing this as a Dutchman in Berlin. I can't possibly be offended by anything said about the Belgians. I also have the difficulty of analysing a system I'm not all that familiar with from a distance, but I have a slightly better access to information as I can follow the Dutch-speaking press. I think we have some Belgian readers, like ElcoB IIRC, and I hope they can give additional information)

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 06:17:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well a double thanks for your effort, then!  I hope our Belgian readers will chime in.  And I hope none of them are offended by my comment either....
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 06:26:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, good description.

diverging economic paths..

In general this is true (employement, growth...), however this is exagerated most of the time for political gains.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 11:44:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't this pillarisation system look a lot like Lebanon's, where each religious community votes on a different day and has a separate allocation of seats, and separate parties?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 12:45:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pillarisation in Belgium is largely gone and had lost most of his significance.
A sign for this is defection of politicians from one party to another, we see it now in all directions.


The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not in the direction of Dutch to French-speaking or vice versa, or do you?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think pillarisation referred specifically to religious affiliation, not linguistic identity?
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:34:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought in the Netherlands it was religious and in Belgium linguistic, but it's quite confusing.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:40:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pillarisation in Belgium had nothing to do with language.
A catholic was a catholic, socialist-socialist..etcetra..

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:48:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But in addition there were separate French and Dutch Catholic and Socialist parties, right?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:49:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are now, since the federalisation started in the 1970's. Before we had national parties , except for nationalist parties and the greens who only emerged later.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 02:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dutch- French- speaking is about communities and regions , remember Belgium is a federalised country. But when one moves from one region to another he can take part in political life.
 

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:37:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It does look similar to Lebanon's confessional system, but Lebanon has also assigned specific national institutions to specific confessional groups, for example the President is always a Maronite, the Prime Minister always a Sunni, the speaker of Parliament always a Shia, etc., which the pillarisation system doesn't seem to have done.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:32:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However, at least according to wikipedia the linguistic communities have a measure of veto power.
Another important characteristic of Belgian national politics is the highly federal nature of decision making. Important decisions require both a national majority (2/3 for constitutional changes), as well as majorities in the two main language groups. On top of that, both these communities can activate 'alarm bell'-procedures, delaying changes. In addition, there are no national parties to speak of. As a result of this, Belgian decision making can be slow and expensive. On top, it tends to significantly favour the more conservative parties. Given the historically very high public expenditure, and the very strict central control over taxation, even for revenues going to regions and communities, the tendency of Belgian governments to lower taxation and especially labour charges has been limited, at least if compared to radical-liberal approaches followed by certain other countries.
This reminds me of the Stormont agreement
The Northern Ireland [Assembly] has two primary mechanisms to guarantee power-sharing. The first is the manner in which ministers are appointed to the Northern Ireland Executive. These are not nominated by a simple majority vote. Rather all parties with a significant number of seats are entitled to at least one minister, and ministerial portfolios are divided among the parties in proportion to their strength in the Assembly, through a method known as the d'Hondt system. The second power-sharing mechanism is the requirement that certain resolutions must receive "cross community support", or the support of a minimum number of MLAs from both communities, to be passed by the Assembly. Every MLA is officially designated as either "nationalist", "Unionist" or "non-aligned". The election of the First and Deputy First Ministers, the election of the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, any changes to the standing orders and the adoption of certain money bills must all occur with cross-community support. The election of the First and Deputy First Ministers must occur by parallel consent but in all other cases either form of cross community support is acceptable. In addition to votes on these subjects any vote taken by the Assembly can be made dependent on cross-community support if at least thirty MLAs present the Speaker with a "petition of concern" before the vote is taken. This means, in effect, that, provided enough MLAs from a given community agree, each of the two communities represented in the Assembly can exercise a veto over its decisions.

Each MLA is free to designate themselves as "nationalist", "unionist" or "other" as they see fit, the only requirement being that no member may change their designation more than once during an Assembly session. The power-sharing system thus depends on the honesty of its participants. The system has been criticised by some, in particular the cross-community Alliance Party, as entrenching sectarian divisions. Alliance favours a change that would involve an end to official designations of identity and the taking of important votes on the basis of an ordinary super-majority. A particular bone of contention for them is that members designated as "other" have less say in the election of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister, as it is decided by parallel consent.

I suppose Northern Ireland is a closer parallel to Lebanon.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:39:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any chance of another Red/Green/Blue? Or are the Liberals too far from them/too alienated from last time?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:39:45 AM EST
Red Green Blue would have a majority according to my amateur calculations, in which the greens get a combined 11 seats. You probably know as much about this as I do, but the Green parties were blamed for all kinds of things at the end of the first 'purple' Verhofstadt cabinet, of which they were part. Ecolo ended up stepping out of the coalition just before the end, and the Flemish green party did not meet the threshold at the last federal elections. So they're probably not jumping to join the same coalition again.

However, there is plenty of animosity to go all around in Belgian politics.

The thing is that if the Christian Democrats become the largest party combined, it is highly probable that they will be able to make the first steps towards forming a coalition. If their attempts fail, all bets (save on the far right, which remains in its cordon sanitaire) are off.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:55:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There are 11 electoral districts (nl), ranging in seats from 4 to 24. There is a general threshold of 5%, but, obviously, in a 4 seat district with proportional representation, a party needs to get at least 25%(1). On the other hand, small parties can evade the 5% hurdle in the bigger districts by making a 'list connection' to a big party.

A little less obviously, ina 4-seat district a party needs to get 20%. Sometimes it's even less.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 11:50:00 AM EST
My mathematical ignorance shines again! But you are right, with the D'Hondt method 20% will do as there is no way another party will get a higher percentage per seat when given the rest seat.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 11:58:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's called the Droop quota apparently. One can, in fact, use the minimum threshold and the Droop quota to seed the d'Hondt method.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 12:33:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting stuff. Wouldn't introducing the Droop quota as a seed of the D'Hondt method cause some kind of distortion of proportionality? You are in effect weighing the seats doubly.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:05:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, if you exceed the Droop quota you're guaranteed a number of seats regardless of the allocation system. So you can
  1. exclude parties not making the threshold
  2. allocate seats by full multiples of the droop quota
  3. apply the d'Hondt method if there are any remaining seats unallocated
Step 2 just takes care of most of the initial steps of the d'Hondt method.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:08:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The d'Hondt method uses the quotient of dividing the number of votes by the number of seats so far allocated, plus one. There is no double counting as the seats allocated by the droop quota are taken into account when applying the d'Hondt method.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:13:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As you'll understand, in this kind of district-based system, polls of voting intentions are rather difficult to interpret. The most recent poll breaks down the Flemish-speaking community, the French-speaking community in Brussels, and the French-speaking community outside Brussels. Which brings us a bit closer. But in order to know what's really going to happen you'd need to know what the polls are in each individual district.

In Spain we have the same system and you hardly ever see a poll broken down by constituency (it would be 50 times more expensive to run such a poll). That's why the results of the recent local elections were used as a proxy by some people (including myself).

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 01:32:36 PM EST

This is the latest poll for Flanders.

The CD&V-N-VA cartel will win this elections. Their frontrunner and candidate-prime minister is our Flemish minister-president in function.
It all depends on the results of the socialist and liberal parties in both country parts wich coalition will be formed.
Vlaams-belang is still under 'cordon sanitaire' and is totally unable to have a say.
There is a (small) possibility that the greens will be asked to join to reinforce majority.

'Lijst Dedecker' is a split party (conservative liberals) unlikely to reach tresshold of 5%.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)

by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 02:27:20 PM EST
Sort of off-topic, it's an interesting use of the term cordon sanitaire.  I had previously only heard it used as a military term, which is apparently not the usual usage.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 02:33:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More about cordon sanitaire in Belgium

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 02:43:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It troubles me that such a blatantly racist party could get such a high percentage of the vote.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:02:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, frightening.
And this in one of the richest countries of the world.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:14:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Riches don't lead to wisdom, evidently.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 03:59:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are plenty of examples of wealthy racist nationalists in Europe.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 9th, 2007 at 01:54:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the explanation and analysis. This is always something that I really enjoy about Eurotrib. I constantly get updated on what's happening around the rest of Europe.
by gradinski chai on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 05:38:34 PM EST
Thanks for this diary!

There is a niche to take for ET in doing election articles (Europe and world), no media does it consistently (and we usually get results in one depeche from MSM and that's it at best).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sat Jun 9th, 2007 at 04:11:04 AM EST

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