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There will also be a few elections in some of the states of Germany, which could be very important for the balance of power internally in Germany. But the people in the Council of Ministers and in the European Council will stay the same for over a year and three months.
(More qualifiers: Depending upon the date of elections in Greece/Spain, and if no government falls. Plus Slovenia also elects a president in December this year but I don't know what his role in the EU institutions is, more like the French president (all-decisive) or more like the German president (none at all))
Guy Verhofstadt's Open VLD is a left-liberal party....
Wiki mentions the following on the VLD:
Ideologically, the VLD started as a right-wing, somewhat Thatcherite party under its founder, Guy Verhofstadt. On economic issues the VLD rapidly became more centrist and gave up much of its free-market approach. Party chairman Bart Somers called in November 2006 for a "revolution" within the party, saying that "a liberal party," like the VLD, "can only be progressive and social."
Forgive me if I'm about to ask some dumb questions. So there are only two districts -- Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorden plus the two districts mentioned in note 2 -- where both the Flemish and Walloon parties are on the ballots? Do the ideologically aligned parties from the two language groups automatically caucus together, or form coalitions? Isn't there a small German-speaking community, and where do they fall in the electoral geography? Why are the polls in Brussels only among the French-speaking community?
Now for non-logistical question... why has the PM not been able to govern effectively? Because that seems like quite a dramatic drop in popularity.
Sorry to pelt you with questions, but as I said, I think the system is really interesting, and I know not very much about it.
Thanks again for the diary! And here's hoping that it won't swing too far rightward.
I think that being on a list requires registration in a district, so that, yes, there are only three districts where both the Flemish and Walloon parties are on the ballot. Ideologically aligned parties across language groups don't automatically form coalitions. There's quite some politics involved. But I think that practically, they will still end up doing so.
There is a small German-speaking community, but it is too small to field its own political party for the elections. It does have a separate senator in the senate, otherwise it votes in the Walloon district in which it lives. As Belgium is a federal state, the German community also has a large degree of self-governance.
The poll in Brussels was only with regard to the French-speaking parties. I just found another poll of the Dutch-speaking parties, but that one is already over two weeks ago.
Why Verhofstadt has not been able to govern effectively is stuff for another diary.
And what are the numbers of Ecolo in Brussels/French part? *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
It doesn't make a lot of sense to me to poll only one language group or another at a time in a mixed district like Brussels. That just wouldn't tell you very much about how the seats will break down. It seems obvious to me that they'd need to poll the entire district about all the candidates on the ballot to get a real sense of who's going to win what. Am I missing something? What a curious decision.
Has there ever been a party that attempted to win support from (or field candidates in) both the Flemish and Walloon communities? In other words, crossing the linguistic divide to talk about issues that are of concern to all Belgians? Or is the linguistic identity too central to how people perceive their interests to allow that?
I'm just curious about that because it reminds me a bit of Lebanon.... Hopefully not as volatile, though.
There is no Belgian media. A political scientist from Antwerp - Dave Sinardet - has researched how much attention there is in the TV news for events across the language border: 3 percent. Even French-speaking ministers of the Belgian government get little time in the Flemish TV, and vice versa. "It is de facto more useful for a Flemish politican to visit the pub around the corner on a sunday afternoon than to go to the studios of RTBF", Sinardet writes in a recently published book (What Belgium stands for).
right now there are two completely different communities on diverging economic paths and with completely separated media environments.
I hope you'll pardon me for saying this, but that doesn't sound terribly sustainable.
(As a clarification: I'm writing this as a Dutchman in Berlin. I can't possibly be offended by anything said about the Belgians. I also have the difficulty of analysing a system I'm not all that familiar with from a distance, but I have a slightly better access to information as I can follow the Dutch-speaking press. I think we have some Belgian readers, like ElcoB IIRC, and I hope they can give additional information)
diverging economic paths..
Another important characteristic of Belgian national politics is the highly federal nature of decision making. Important decisions require both a national majority (2/3 for constitutional changes), as well as majorities in the two main language groups. On top of that, both these communities can activate 'alarm bell'-procedures, delaying changes. In addition, there are no national parties to speak of. As a result of this, Belgian decision making can be slow and expensive. On top, it tends to significantly favour the more conservative parties. Given the historically very high public expenditure, and the very strict central control over taxation, even for revenues going to regions and communities, the tendency of Belgian governments to lower taxation and especially labour charges has been limited, at least if compared to radical-liberal approaches followed by certain other countries.
The Northern Ireland [Assembly] has two primary mechanisms to guarantee power-sharing. The first is the manner in which ministers are appointed to the Northern Ireland Executive. These are not nominated by a simple majority vote. Rather all parties with a significant number of seats are entitled to at least one minister, and ministerial portfolios are divided among the parties in proportion to their strength in the Assembly, through a method known as the d'Hondt system. The second power-sharing mechanism is the requirement that certain resolutions must receive "cross community support", or the support of a minimum number of MLAs from both communities, to be passed by the Assembly. Every MLA is officially designated as either "nationalist", "Unionist" or "non-aligned". The election of the First and Deputy First Ministers, the election of the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, any changes to the standing orders and the adoption of certain money bills must all occur with cross-community support. The election of the First and Deputy First Ministers must occur by parallel consent but in all other cases either form of cross community support is acceptable. In addition to votes on these subjects any vote taken by the Assembly can be made dependent on cross-community support if at least thirty MLAs present the Speaker with a "petition of concern" before the vote is taken. This means, in effect, that, provided enough MLAs from a given community agree, each of the two communities represented in the Assembly can exercise a veto over its decisions. Each MLA is free to designate themselves as "nationalist", "unionist" or "other" as they see fit, the only requirement being that no member may change their designation more than once during an Assembly session. The power-sharing system thus depends on the honesty of its participants. The system has been criticised by some, in particular the cross-community Alliance Party, as entrenching sectarian divisions. Alliance favours a change that would involve an end to official designations of identity and the taking of important votes on the basis of an ordinary super-majority. A particular bone of contention for them is that members designated as "other" have less say in the election of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister, as it is decided by parallel consent.
Each MLA is free to designate themselves as "nationalist", "unionist" or "other" as they see fit, the only requirement being that no member may change their designation more than once during an Assembly session. The power-sharing system thus depends on the honesty of its participants. The system has been criticised by some, in particular the cross-community Alliance Party, as entrenching sectarian divisions. Alliance favours a change that would involve an end to official designations of identity and the taking of important votes on the basis of an ordinary super-majority. A particular bone of contention for them is that members designated as "other" have less say in the election of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister, as it is decided by parallel consent.
However, there is plenty of animosity to go all around in Belgian politics.
The thing is that if the Christian Democrats become the largest party combined, it is highly probable that they will be able to make the first steps towards forming a coalition. If their attempts fail, all bets (save on the far right, which remains in its cordon sanitaire) are off.
A little less obviously, ina 4-seat district a party needs to get 20%. Sometimes it's even less. Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
In Spain we have the same system and you hardly ever see a poll broken down by constituency (it would be 50 times more expensive to run such a poll). That's why the results of the recent local elections were used as a proxy by some people (including myself). Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
This is the latest poll for Flanders.
The CD&V-N-VA cartel will win this elections. Their frontrunner and candidate-prime minister is our Flemish minister-president in function. It all depends on the results of the socialist and liberal parties in both country parts wich coalition will be formed. Vlaams-belang is still under 'cordon sanitaire' and is totally unable to have a say. There is a (small) possibility that the greens will be asked to join to reinforce majority.
'Lijst Dedecker' is a split party (conservative liberals) unlikely to reach tresshold of 5%. The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
There is a niche to take for ET in doing election articles (Europe and world), no media does it consistently (and we usually get results in one depeche from MSM and that's it at best).
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