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The stakes, of course, are the numbers that go in the little boxes of your game-theory pay-off matrix.  They should be chosen to represent reality.  

Amazing:  If you introduce a little clever, fancy, high-tech, everyone is so fascinated that they just don't want to fill in the boxes!  Payoff minus infinity?  But the chance is so low, why don't we just round it up to minus ten, and calculate with that instead?  

My mood here is a holdover from a different thread:  Science fundies are just as bad as religious fundies--they don't care about anything except their little toy theory/theology.  

A story:  A while ago I came across an entertaining book on a very dull subject--I still have it--called "Structures:  or why things don't fall down" by J.E.Gordon.  It's from the 1980s, but Gordon has been around a while--consulting on projects that had to work or investigating projects that didn't work.  (Oops!)  At one point he wanders onto a tangent about why architects don't use glass for structural (load bearing) members.

First he sets it up:  Glass is a great material--it is easy to work with, stronger than steel (at least by weight), and has many good properties.  Nevertheless, it is never used.  

The reason:  It's mode of failure.  When glass fails under stress, it fails without warning, all at once, and totally.  This is bad--it makes the structure untrustworthy.  Since all structures fail, someday, eventually, you need to use a material with a predictable life, and that gives a predictable warning--usually by exhibiting strain in advance of failure.  

The moral:  There are some technologies you cannot use, no matter how attractive they are, because their defects are too great.  

I am glad architects understand this.  It would be good if this technical principle were understood more generally by those who claim to be scientific.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 05:38:43 AM EST
The point, of course, is that the payoff is very seldom -infinity. Name a technology where it is.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 05:58:21 AM EST
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There you are being non-anti-nuclear again.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 06:01:00 AM EST
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Black hole synthesis, Advanced pathological microorganism production ? :)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 08:36:01 AM EST
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Depends what you're doing with the black hole and where it is ... and how big it is. And what the pathological microorganisms are pathological to.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 08:37:11 AM EST
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I think Linca is talking about the possibility that the LHC's quark-gluon plasma creates a microscopic black hole which would then proceed to eat the Earth.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 08:47:06 AM EST
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Yes, I know, but I thought I'd be awkward.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 08:48:35 AM EST
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we have a squad for people like you :-)

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 07:42:33 PM EST
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Larry Niven wrote a very funny story about the black hole that ate (will eat) Mars.  

You do not want a black hole anywhere near your neighborhood.  Or even near your planetary system.  This is the kind of thing that ought to be obvious.  It matters not at all what you might be thinking to do with it.  

Scientists who refuse to think about consequences really bug me.  There are words for people like that, but no polite ones.  

PS I DO know the difference between fusion and fission, but unless a technology like Inertial Electrostatic Confinement can 1) get funding 2) actually work, we have missed the window on that one because even if ITER/tokamak finally works it will come too late.  And we STILL would need to consider what to do about the hot fusor site itself.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 08:54:29 AM EST
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