Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
Still, if it's not him, then who?

Frankly I don't see anyone in the current Republican field becoming US president. Guliani and McCain have a long shot, because people somehow "like" them. But Guliani actually botches up quite a lot on the campaign trail, and McCain is a bit too old by now. Still, if Fred Thompson gets the nomination, the Dems should be lucky.

You never know what happens, of course. But this is a very weak field of contenders for the Republican nomination, facing an already fairly strong field of Democrats.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2007 at 08:21:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the way it looks now, but never underestimate the Dems' ability to shoot themselves in the foot and eke out a come-from-ahead defeat for themselves.

A Dem victory might look nigh-inevitable now, but I trust they will find new and innovative ways of screwing it up.

At any rate, when Bush Senior lost to Bill Clinton in '92, it looked much the same in reverse at this stage in the pre-primary race -- only in that case it was a sitting president facing off against a passel of lightweights, and then the nominee ends up being this bubba from Arkansas who nobody had ever heard of....

Nothing is written.  Not yet.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2007 at 08:34:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton got a little help from Ross Perot, too.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2007 at 09:00:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But how much help? It would be interesting to know the break-down of what Perot voters would have done had he not been in the race. If a significant amount would have stayed home and/or they would have broken about evenly for Clinton or Bush, Perot might have had very little impact on the final outcome of the election.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2007 at 09:11:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, he did.  Ahem.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2007 at 09:13:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree that the next president very likely will be a Democrat (in fact, if the nominee is Obama, I think we're looking at landslide territory).
But as far as the Republican nomination goes, Thompson might well end up being the consensus candidate.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2007 at 08:38:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well as long as he dosn't task Dick Cheney to advise him who should be the next vice president.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2007 at 10:22:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The immigration reform bill is showing the deep rift between the nationalist voters and the pro-corporate politicians who are 100% in thrall to the corporate world. It was going to happen eventually, and it's a gigantic problem for the republicans. Same goes for the alliance with religious folk who are either feeling that Bush hasn't implemented the fundie agenda well enough or (on the more liberal side) that perhaps Bush isn't exactly engaging in behavior that jesus would approve of. The right wing base is a bizarre coalition that doesn't look like it can hold together much longer.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2007 at 01:23:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series