Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
The main MSM problem about employment measure is the use of the "unemployment" statistic which is, at best, highly misleading, both when comparing countries and when comparing years for a country.

I added a while ago on wikipedia:


For the fourth quarter of 2004, according to OECD, (source Employment Outlook 2005 ISBN 92-64-01045-9), normalized unemployment for men aged 25 to 54 was 4.6% in the USA and 7.4% in France. At the same time and for the same population the employment rate (number of workers divided by population) was 86.3% in the USA and 86.7% in France.

This example shows that the unemployment rate is 60% higher in France than in the USA, yet more people in this demographic are working in France than in the USA, which is counterintuitive if it is expected that the unemployment rate reflects the health of the labor market [10].

So you see that the social category who has the less social and economical potential reasons to be without job (male 25 to 54 year old) does better "super high unemployment France" vs "full employment overheating USA".

Compare this with MSM blurbs and population perception of the relative situation of the two countries work market.

For other categories, in particular old workers, I recommand reading article and comments from Dean Baker on the latest USA statistic release:

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=08&year=2007&base_name=new_d ata_on_income_and_poverty

[...] The article also noted the rise in incomes for people over age 65. At least part of the story is higher employment rates among older people. The employment to population ratio (EPOP) for people over age 65 rose from 23.1 percent in 2000 to 28.1 percent in 2006. This huge rise (more than 20 percent) in EPOPs is a good thing insofar as it is attributable to improved health and employment opportunities for people who want to keep working. It is not so good if it is due to the fact that more older people are finding that they cannot make ends meet without a job.

[... comments ...]

I don't think the SS earnings test had much to do with the change in EPOPs for older workers. It has risen by 3.4 percentage points for workers between ages 70 and 74 (13.1 percent to 16.5 percent), and there never was any earnings test for this age group.

One can easily imagine the real reason why 70-74 year old workers are going back to work in the USA, and in no small numbers: a 25% relative increase in 6 years.

ET diary:


My blog article:


by Laurent GUERBY on Fri Aug 31st, 2007 at 07:01:26 AM EST
How well do the Stats capture "self employment" and is there any decent data on the "black" economy?

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Aug 31st, 2007 at 07:06:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There cannot be "decent" data on the underground economy, almost by definition. It must all be inferred and estimated from other indicators.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 31st, 2007 at 07:08:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know that!

Money laundering (the law enforcement side!) used to be one of my "Day jobs" as the IPE "exchange policeman", and before that, I was clearing out some of the crooks from the commodity markets in the AFBD (before it was rolled into the FSA), and before THAT in fraud investigation for the DTI.....

All right then: what inferred and estimated data is there?

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Aug 31st, 2007 at 07:16:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Self employment is a category if you look at the detailed statistics.

After employment to population the next step is to look at full or part time (big difference between UK and France for example). Then look at hours worked and then at work income.

by Laurent GUERBY on Fri Aug 31st, 2007 at 03:47:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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