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Call me an old cynic, but I'm not sure you can infer all that much of what a successful candidate will actually do once elected based on their campaign team and rhetoric.

There are two radically different games being played here

  1. Do/say whatever it takes to get elected

  2. Think about what you really want to do when you get elected and appoint your governing (as opposed to your campaign) team appropriately at that point.

Under 1) Hilary had to look tough as a women.  She probably has the instinctive Clinton game plan of not being trumped on national security issues by the GOP, so be as right wing as you think you can get away with and still win the Dem nomination.  Big problem was the Dem faithful don't want anyone within an asses roar of Bush to be their nominee.  She underestimated the degree to which public opinion ha turned on Bush and anyone vaguely close to him on foreign policy.  She should have secured the democratic faithful first and worried about not being blind-sided on National security later.

For Obama it was easier.  Hillary was the front runner running a typically centrist campaign to try and overcome her partisan image and pull in some independents.  Position yourself slightly but distinctly to the left of her.  Opposing Iraq was a no brainer if you weren't so obsessed with not being trumped by GOP on national security. First focus on wresting the Dem nomination from the heir presumptive Hillary.  Otherwise she had it sown up anyway.

For Edwards the focus was perhaps more on trade and corporatism at the expense of workers.  Position yourself slightly to the left of the heir presumptive Clinton on social and economic issues.

In trying to secure her right flank Clinton left herself too exposed on her left flank on both foreign and domestic policy.

2)  So what would they all actually do if elected?  To an extent they have to at least appear to genuflect to their base which got them into power.  So the initial mood music and image management would certainly be different.  But very soon the actual election and how it was fought and won is forgotten.  Events dictate what happens next and for all I know Clinton could be more radical and decisive than the other two.  She certainly has waited a long time for her chance and for her there will be no next time.  I don't have a clue what Obama would do except that is focus might be more Asia than Europe.  Edwards might be more focused on domestic rather than foreign policy issues -provided events did conspire to force him to focus on trade and geopolitical issues more.

But its all guesswork.  You need to have the inside dope on what these guys discuss in private when they are not talking electoral politics.  It really has vry little to do with actually being President.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jan 6th, 2008 at 09:08:12 PM EST
I agree with you.

It depends also on the results of the congressional elections. First, the number of senators: if the Democrats manage to gain 60 seats or more, they will be in a position to bring change. Second, the number of "left-wing democrats" among the newly elected.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 02:27:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I looked at four different things with these candidates

  • Their campaign rhetoric
  • Their foreign policy staff
  • Their style
  • Their record

Based on the overall picture, I do think that Hillary Clinton's position is her natural position. With John Kerry in '04 it seemed obvious that his hawkishness was just a matter of positioning, not so with Clinton. It matches with her style, it matches with her overall record.

But maybe she's just a better actress.

You're right that we don't really know right now what these candidates will do in face of circumstances and Melanchton is absolutely right in saying that a lot depends on how large the Democratic majority in Congress will be.

But to some extent, we don't have the luxury to take that position ('we' on Eurotrib do, the people in power in Europe, don't). I'd vastly prefer it if we didn't take a sit and wait attitude to what a Democratic President will do, because we'll accomplish a lot less.

It would be irresponsible not to speculate ;-)

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 05:50:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You've done all any outsider can do in this situation, and done it well.  Speculation can be such fun but I pine for the insider info!

nanne:

But maybe she's just a better actress.

My guess is tat we have no idea just how good she is, and how good Obama is at being a white screen on which almost anyone can project their favourite fantasies and imagine they are seeing the real deal (i.e. their aspirations in a mirror).

Both qualities are the essence of mass politics and both are supremely good at it.  Therefore I caution against imagining that what we are doing here is anything more than analyzing the projected images manufactured by their respective handlers.

I am reminded of the firm "The Candidate" in which a young Robert Redford plays a handsome young upstart idealist who overthrows the party machine and wins a Senate seat.  Having been elected he asks, In the final sequence,  almost for the first time since his long lost idealistic days "what do we do now?".  He is beholden to the machine that elected him, but the process of winning the seat had become an end in itself, and he had long lost the and sold out on the idealism that had led him to politics in the first place.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 06:23:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think we have a better idea of Clinton because, as she keeps insisting, she's been around for 35 years.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 06:31:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A women with the self-discipline to put up with Bill for 35 years is capable of hiding her true feelings from almost anyone.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 07:03:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 07:10:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I repost here a comment I made in another diary:

It is very interesting to look at the contributions made by various industries to the financing of the candidates. You can see them on this site: Open Secrets. Take a look at the contributions from lobbyists...

(thanks to Sharon Wraight on Daily Kos)

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 07:15:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But your point only applies to foreign policy. For us Americans, it's much easier to discern what these people will be like on domestic policy.

One needs only to look at the difference in their health care plans to understand that Obama is much closer to the insurance industry on this issue than Edwards is.

by Upstate NY on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 10:24:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One thing I see that a lot of people kind of forget...not here, so much, but in US blogs...that US presidents do not legislate. They suggest bills and budgets and approaches, but it all has to get passed by the House and the Senate (with the Senate being much slower, typically). So, what will be an important thing to bear in mind is, whoever does get elected (thinking positively that it will be a Democrat) will be impacted a great deal by whether there is a Democratic majority in both the House (likely) and the Senate (needs a bigger majority to make changes there). That was one of the problems Bill Clinton faced, he had 6 years in office where he had a rabid Right-wing majority in both the House and Senate, which forced him to negotiate a lot to get anything done (and had to give up a lot, in the process).

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 11:10:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You should add that it will also depend on how left-leaning will be the newly elected Congress members and how they will perceive the voters' expectations

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 11:35:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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