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This guy doesn't even know anything about the way the Depression was managed. A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
Any attempt at consolidating distressed private debt into public debt today, will only accelerate the "market" realization of a looming public budget problem (that has been lingering for decades): most public debt even in the developed countries cannot be repaid, save with newly printed money.
And even keynesianism is dead: we have been living in a constant keynesian boost context since the end of WWII, in the US it took the form of a "permanent war economy", geared towards the USSR.
Essentially all OECD countries now have public spending in the 30-45% of GDP. You cannot increase this sufficiently to get any stimulus, you could only change the recipients to less silly ones (e.g. less to the military in the US). Before the Great Depression, this rate was much lower, below the 15% mark in the US I think.
In order to have the option to stimulate the economy Keynes-style, the developed world should have greatly lowered public spending and balanced the budgets decades ago. Which would have meant lower benefits and lower standards of living in Europe. This is the same endgame: whether living beyond one's means was achieved by private debt, or by underfunded public transfers (which accumulate public debt), it's now about to end.
There is no way to avoid a long, secular decline in standards of living everywhere on the planet. Pierre
the developed world should have greatly lowered public spending and balanced the budgets decades ago.
High public spending is positively correlated to high GDP. As far as I know there is no such connection between high public spending and public debt. Ie the United States.
Also, you are saying that public spending between 30 and 45 percent can't be increased sufficiently to stimulate the economy.
Since some of the countries that have been binging on cheap credit the last few years are among the ones with the lowest public expenditures in the OECD, it seems that they at least have some room for boosting the state sector. Providing they are willing to raise taxes on the wealthy that is.
we have been living in a constant keynesian boost context since the end of WWII
I agree that the US government was under constant stimulation, especially the last 8 (or 28) years. But is there anything Keynesian in the "supply side" tax cut stimulation, particularly?
(Why the fuck did we have to privatize the national savings banks?) A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
P.S. My previous comment is mistyped. It should start with I agree that the US economy was under constant stimulation...
There is no way to avoid a long, secular decline in standards of living everywhere on the planet.
Only if one defines "High Standard of Living" with "continuous consumption of useless stuff you don't need and never use."
In my village in New Mexico there's a group of us who are getting fairly serious about community-based (with 10 kilometers) consumption: food, fuel, power, water, consumer goods, & etc. Keeping our dollars in the area would improve the standard of living of the village as a whole. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
This diary was actually an attempt to bridge my 2 favorite sources of information about the State Of The Planet(TM).
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