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The basic causal argument is that there are factors that increase the viability of Political Revolution. However, conditions that make a Political Revolution viable are certainly no guarantee that it will occur, because these are people we are talking about, rather than charged iron filings.
OK, --I quote this mostly because I liked it--
There is a tendency in the technological world to treat human events in a mechanistic way, which is comforting to gearheads like I used to be, but works badly. The Neocon cartoon reality is a good example.
I think I would put it a bit differently, and this applies to your comments to follow.
There are two fields here- likelihood and viability.
Likelihood---will it happen? and
Viability--- can it live?
The piece is not about viability, but about likelihood. The author does not really address the question of whether what follows will be an improvement over what is discarded.
ATinNM, however, nails it- without a fundamental paradigm shift, it will fail. It will be nonviable. Unfortunately, all those nice CO-words, like cooperation, collective bargaining, community, have been tarred and feathered pretty well. So the revolution might still happen, though, and hence all those very real fears about brutal fascism.
Helen also has her finger on the pulse of it--what currently exists is a fundamentally barbaric transnational corporate oligopoly, whose participants (including Sarko's handlers) have the emotional tone of cockroaches--but who have mastered the "bread and circus" thing pretty well (Thanks, Mig). As long as the toys last, there will be no revolution. But the toys are about to run out.
Without a miracle, Obama will crash and burn. FDR faced significant challenges-- but they were minor compared to those Barak will face. He's likeable. I pity him.
I think the 0.1% still have a few tricks up their sleeve. Consider a post-2012, post-Obama world, with a second failed, Democratic presidency, and a lot of lost hope. I think at that point they need a new enemy- O.B. Laden is wearing thin even today, as public enemy no.1 and they will likely find one- to justify another round of violent predation, with universal conscription and national bankruptcy. Which will then REALLY stir the pot.
If I were a member of the Repub. Pioneers club, I'd do my best to sabotage Obama and then pick up the pieces.
Essentially what they tried to do to Clinton.
If I were the opposite number in Europe and/or China, I'd decouple and rearm. Fast.
Bad vibes here.
Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
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