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...it'll continue to be seen as a country full of unusually competent peasants who - in economic terms - are useful idiots.

And unfortuntately it will be accurately seen as such.

There is a common mistake people make in thinking that China has integrated itself into the world economy for reasons of the national interest, instead of in the interests of the ruling class in amassing greater wealth.

The whole plan is for China to play second fiddle to the US and for some Chinese people to make a buck out of that. They don't mind being 'useful idiots' as long as there is a buck in it. They will actually be appalled as the US tanks and they have to adjust. And a great many of them will probably not make the imaginative or visionary leap that is required. The US being top dog is what they know. They didn't want it another way, and many will not even be able to conceive of it being another way, even as the whole arrangement falls down around them.

by wing26 on Fri Feb 29th, 2008 at 04:42:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... when they say in Shanghai, "You are one in a thousand", it means there are a million more out there to replace you.

The Chinese political elite has as one of its priorities to generate enough jobs to avoid political crisis, and if a discounted exchange rate policy against the US$ generates the net capital account inflows to the US that allows the US to continue generating the net current account outflows that provide an external market with actual profit margins that helps keep so many businesses afloat ... well, that's a good thing.

However, they also believe in covering their bases, which would seem to be what they did when "under pressure from the US" they moved to the Singapore model of hidden basket peg.

If China ditches the US$ it will not be as a neo-con fantasy geo-political power play, it will be because they think that mine is tapped out of new export jobs, and are changing their primary focus to a new external market.

Under the Chinese economic system, they've got to keep playing that general game until they've ridden out the demographic bulge, or else face a very high risk of losing power. And under the iron law of oligarchy, as a first priority, a long-entrenched oligarchy will do what it believes to be necessary to hold onto power.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Feb 29th, 2008 at 12:07:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I sometimes think that the US and its allies have an overblown view of how important the Chinese government considers them ... it isn't all about you.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Feb 29th, 2008 at 12:11:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... but when its about China and anybody else, that is not newsworthy for the US Mess Media ...

... after all, how would a yank who had not found an escape hatch from the US Media Bubble ever know that the US was not the be-all and end-all of Chinese foreign policy?

When would someone who thinks that CNN or MSNBC gives the "in depth" news coverage that the networks don't have time for ever hear of the effort of China to build a trade framework for China, South Korea, Japan and ASEAN, or the ongoing "industrial diplomacy" efforts of China to secure natural resource exploitation rights in Africa through easy credit terms to buy city buses or finance road construction?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Feb 29th, 2008 at 03:38:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not just the 'US' media bubble though, it's a very much more general Anglosphere bubble, pretty much worldwide. I get entirely and completely US-centric 'world' news where I live ... the HKSAR, technically part of the PRC. I have even read stories about the Chinese nuclear 'threat' to the US, written from an entirely pro-US point of view - in Hong Kong's major English-language daily! The place might as well still be run by the UK in terms of its 'balance'.

And Colman, actually, I do think it is very much about the US ... again, the world's current elites - not just in China but in places like Germany and Japan - grew up in a US-centric world and they don't have the balls to think of the world being any other way. A frequent complaint on ET is about the distorted worldview of places like the FT and so on. Unfortunately that distorted worldview seems to exist even in Paris, Berlin, and, yes, Beijing as well.

by wing26 on Sat Mar 1st, 2008 at 03:42:54 AM EST
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Colman needs to write his diary about the world elite...

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 1st, 2008 at 04:56:40 AM EST
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... Yes there is the bias ... but after living a decade in Australia watching SBS World News and listening to the ABC, and then coming back to the US ... here in the US there is a categorical increased in the opacity of the walls of the bubble.

Lord, the best broadcast coverage I ever came across about the new richest man in the world, the Mexican telecom tycoon, was an ABC Radio National show that I listened to by podcast while cycling to work one day. And that's Mexico!


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Mar 1st, 2008 at 10:00:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I tend to view media as a global system with the center in the US. It is not uniform, for example we have national medias in Europe (national in reporting, not ownership). But when they look at the world, they are mostly looking through the american eyes. As I use to point out, I know more about what is happening in the US then in Denmark.

I suspect that the national medias do spill over a bit, and that might especially be the case if your area lacks a strong national media. But mostly it is the international US-centric media that dominates the world.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sat Mar 1st, 2008 at 06:54:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference is, outside the US media bubble we get a US-centric view of the world. Inside the US media bubble, we get very little view of the world at all.

There's very little need to distort the view that Americans get of the outside world through our media, because we get so very view of the outside world.

In Oz, I could, of course, check in with what was happening according to the US Mess Media by watching any of the commercial networks news broadcasts (those that were not "current affairs" infotainment) ... but I had the option of watching news on SBS and the ABC, either of which was more journalism in an hour than I can get in 24 hours on any US based broadcast network or narrowcast news channel.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Mar 1st, 2008 at 08:18:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Chinese political elite has as one of its priorities to generate enough jobs to avoid political crisis, and if a discounted exchange rate policy against the US$ generates the net capital account inflows to the US that allows the US to continue generating the net current account outflows that provide an external market with actual profit margins that helps keep so many businesses afloat ... well, that's a good thing.

All of which, I submit, would have been entirely uneccessary had China remained on its original Maoist path.

Deng, and all that came after him - that is, the China you see now - was not inevitable, it was a choice. And it was a choice made by only a few people, and only in their interests.

If the Chinese elite were truly interested in avoiding political crisis, they would never have embarked on this course in the first place.

Although you are generally correct about the difficulty of revolution, let us hope you are wrong in this case (China), and that the people responsible get it in the neck (literally), like they deserve, without being able to bugger off to Hong Kong or New York or wherever (like they did the last time around).

by wing26 on Sat Mar 1st, 2008 at 03:34:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... population policy ... that is, people are wealth, to encourage a population explosion ... that is responsible for the urgency of the political problem now. And if China had not engineered a boost in agricultural output, the Maoist path would have turned quite ugly for the ruling oligarchy.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Mar 1st, 2008 at 10:06:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Though the on child policy started in '79, I thought it was a continuation of existing policies. Do you have some links to the previous population policy?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sat Mar 1st, 2008 at 07:03:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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