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As to where it's headed - gasoline consumption is already contracting in the U.S., as are jobs and, now, retail sales. Yes, there are still 'market forces' that operate to some degree. The company from which I will soon retire exports a substantial portion of our product (actual, manufactured-right-here product) to Japan. The recent changes in the ratio of the yen to the dollar has resulted in a heavy volume of quotations - with a lot of associated pressure on being prepared for a quick ramp-up. And, yes, we may be the exception, more than the rule, because so much manufacturing capacity in this country is either dilapidated or gone.
As far as reduced profits and business bankruptcies, no doubt whatsoever. USians are headed for big and bigger problems. "Deleveraging" is at hand.
Meantime, there is inflation here. If you want to blame it on the fact that oligarchical capitalists control costs, government, prices, 'markets', media, etc., I agree completely.
If you want to talk in terms of theories of economics, then: 1) military spending cycles money while reducing the production of goods that actually enter the real, recycling economy; 2) printing money in excess of simple replacement causes "more money to chase the same amount of goods"; 3) raising component costs increases price in non-competitive markets (majority of the consolidated U.S. markets nowadays). All of these are inflationary. paul spencer
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