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put the dollar back at $1.20/Euro and gas drops by $1/gallon (25%).

take out the fear premium on crude and another leg down of crude to maybe half what we are now.  Saudi was just as happy at $60 as they are now at $140, though that may well change now that they see $140 without the world coming to an end.

As for Hughs "three iron laws", I'd say 3 pieces of ossified camel droppings.

Gasoline prices are very highly correlated with crude oil prices with a seasonal overlay of low margins for mogas in winter when distillates rule and higher margins in summer (until this year) when gas is king.  Chinese and Indian demand for mid distillates is changing the equation.

Mogas prices are always manipulated.  Sans proof, this is just left wing bullshit.  Mogas prices at the wholesale level can crap out to crude + $2/bbl in winter.  Most of the differential to pump price is taxes and a bit of distribution and dealer profit.  With country wide prices at fairly similar levels (after backing out taxes) other than places far from supply points or requiring specialty blends like in LA, this is a charge that can't be substantiated though many have tried.

Low in the long run ignores how far crude could collapse is we develop great batteries that make electric cars as flexible as the ICE.  And High in the short run is based on a wish rather than any economic calculation.  Walk 2 miles with a couple of bags of groceries.  Oil is still cheap.

by HiD on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 07:43:08 PM EST
... could remove the User Cost of selling an asset expected to appreciate in value, by being on a track to eliminate consumption of crude oil in line with dwindling supplies ... wouldn't that be down to marginal cost of production?

But of we are going to price at marginal cost of production, and are past Peak Oil, then that increases the amount of reduced consumption to get to any given marginal cost, as we burn through the infra-marginal, cheap to produce oil. And then that ensures that if we were pricing at marginal cost, we would expect the price to increase, and therefore its an appreciating asset, and therefore the User Cost of selling an asset expected to appreciate in value doesn't go away once we are on the downhill side of Peak Oil.

However, the User Cost can go up from the underlying floor created by the physical depletion of the cheapest to produce oil, if the expectation of an appreciation in price becomes stronger.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 08:55:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Saudi's cost of production is $5-10.  Very little of our current production has been brought on stream since oil shot up from $20/bbl.  Even tar sands are profitable at $40-50.  

If we cut most transportation/heating/electricity demand away leaving just lubrication, jet fuel and ship fuel, we'd stretch out the cheap supply for a long long time.

by HiD on Sun Jul 13th, 2008 at 08:19:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, so that says that since current output includes oil tar sands, $40-$50 sets a lower limit on the current marginal cost at current output levels. With recovery in existing fields dropping by anywhere from 3.5% to 5%, climbing down below $40-$50 requires ongoing annual reduction in demand of 3.5% to 5%, plus enough additional below that to lead to abandonment of tar sands production.

If there is Gulf of Mexico Oil reserves to be exploited at a cost of $60-$80 / barrel, it would seem that burning through the $5-$10 infra-marginal production will certainly bring $60-$80 / barrel production cost oil onto the margin, and the rate at which it is brought into production will of course be affected by perceived User Cost of lost capital appreciation ... since the capital value stems from the differential between crude oil price and cost of production, obviously the higher the cost of production, the more significant the capital appreciation for the same crude oil price increase.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Jul 13th, 2008 at 10:38:33 AM EST
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