I was assuming free flow without sanctions. A cynic might wonder if the point of limiting Iraqi access to the oil market through sanctions was as much about keeping prices high as punishing Saddam. The Saudis and the Bush family used to have close links, and probably still do, although I suspect the Bin Ladens and other Saudis have always been smart enough to see Clan Bush as useful idiots.

Either way, I doubt the Saudis are desperately unhappy about current price levels. But they were clearly unhappy about sharing power with an independent like Saddam.

I think an all-out invasion of Iran was always going to be less likely than an attack on Iraq, so I'm not convinced that Iran was ever a realistic alternative.

But I think it's worrying that people are arguing as if these wars were inevitable. Perhaps they were eventually, and acceptance of a Gore win in 2000 would only have postponed them. But the alternative was - and is - a crash Green development program, which wouldn't just lower gas prices but make them much less relevant to everyone. Gore might or might not have achieved that in a term. But we'd certainly be much closer to it than we are now.