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Feasible? I'm not sure I agree. The political ramifications alone...
PS why would the US continue to have first call on global capital flows given the experience of devaluation to date - would it not make much more sense for that privilege to gravitate to the Eurozone now?
(As for Drew's point, we're all in deflationary mode right now...but presumably whoever borrows most, long term, also inflates most, or devalues their currency most with respect to the real output of their economy. I have always been amazed at the Chinese continued willingness to invest in Dollars) notes from no w here
Otherwise, the Hungarian Central Bank might have been inclined to put a stop to Hungarian banks offering people loans denominated in Euros or Swiss francs, but that would have been instituting capital controls within the single market and couldn't be done. All they could do is lean on the banks to restrain themselves voluntarily. Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
I wonder if it wouldn't be better to have three or four global reserve currencies - maybe that would prevent The Powers That Be from using reserve currency status to strip-mine the real economy.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Which is why I think it might make more sense to be a global reserve currency rather than the global reserve currency.
asset-stripping, Anglo Disease style
But being the only reserve currency makes it easier, because there is enormous inertia in a system with only one reserve currency.
If the country with the only global reserve currency decides to strip-mine its industry, it can do so with greater ease because it has an inflated exchange rate on account of being a reserve currency. And it can continue to do so for a longer time without the damage becoming obvious to Joe Average, because it will continue to have an inflated exchange rate (allowing it to buy stuff from abroad on the cheap) for a long time, due to the inertia in the system.
If you had two or three reserve currencies, it would be a lot more viable for the rest of the world to shift away from the Anglo Diseased currency. Which would remove the upwards pressure on the exchange rate, and make life more difficult both for the people who are strip-mining the country's industry and for the people who are tasked with running the bread and circus shows.
China certainly would not want to have the reserve currency until 2020/2030 ... depending on how rough the ride is as they turn the demographic corner, but the Yen as a counterweight to the Euro might be acceptable.
Four? (or, if the US$ drops out, three?) ChrisCook's PetroDinar? I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
ChrisCook's PetroDinar?
Petro.
You wouldn't have the Iranians or Russians supporting an Arabic currency.... "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Russia certainly has the population, resources and (potentially) industrial power to support a reserve currency, if they choose to do so (and play their cards right).
You say that China won't want to, and I assume that much the same logic applies to India.
Then there's the possibility of a South American Peso (think € for MerCoSur). That's probably not something we'll see on a ten- or twenty-year horizon, but MerCoSur (or an equivalent organisation) will be a major power within my lifetime.
Then you have Asean, which I personally don't believe will achieve Great Power status, or even enough political and economic coherence to form a monetary union in the first place. It's located right between two major powers (India and China)... which seems to be an unhealthy thing to be, judging by the way the Greater Middle East and Europe during the Cold War turned out...
Sub-Saharan Africa is a complete basket case and will take at least a lifetime to sort out - and that's assuming that the Great Powers would stop actively trying to break things there...
So my guess would be €, Yen, US$ for the first ten to twenty years. After that, possibly the Ruble. And within my lifetime possibly Renmimbi, Rupi or South American Peso.
Unless there is an effective mechanism to share the burden of adjustment between surplus and deficit countries, we seem to retain the same tensions. while broadening the system increases the number of divergent domestic and FRX policies in competition. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
Unless there is an effective mechanism to share the burden of adjustment between surplus and deficit countries,
That's where Keynes was onto something with the Bancor/ICU approach.
His design built in a charge on both positive and negative balances. He was apparently a fan of Gesell.
This is in line with the proposal I advocate for credit creation (ie the time to pay/unsecured credit that makes the world go around), as follows:
Point One: Treasuries -probably decentralised Treasury branches as is still nominally the case in Canada - issue undated interest-free credit (which they do already - it's called cash).
Point Two: Service-providers-formerly-known-as-banks" operate the accounting system and assess/manage the issue of this credit to business and individuals in line with policies set by a Monetary Authority.
Point Three: both sellers and buyers using this credit would pay a charge for the use of the guarantee. ie a charge would be made on both credit and debit balances. This is exactly analogous to Keynes' Gesellian approach.
Point Four: Service-providers-formerly-known-as-banks would be paid reasonable costs plus a share in the outcome.
Point Five: A Default Pool of funds - held by a Custodian-foremerly-known-as-a-Central-Bank would provide necessary liquidity to cover defaults, and any excess would be shared equally as a National Dividend.
Point Six: settlement of credit obligations could be made using positive balances of Treasury credits, or in "money's worth" acceptable to the seller.
Point Seven: defaults would be settled by the Pool and collected from defaulters, if possible. Defaulters could have the option to settle in hours of community service.
Settlement could be, and among businesses often would be, in barter. More generally, through "Unitisation" of existing secured debt, new classes of acceptable units would be developed redeemable in:
(a) energy value - the "Petro's" I have in mind as a generic global reserve currency;
(b) land rental value - an essentially "land-locked" currency. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
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