Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
€, Yen and the North American Peso (a.k.a. US$) is three that will probably have a running chance.

Russia certainly has the population, resources and (potentially) industrial power to support a reserve currency, if they choose to do so (and play their cards right).

You say that China won't want to, and I assume that much the same logic applies to India.

Then there's the possibility of a South American Peso (think € for MerCoSur). That's probably not something we'll see on a ten- or twenty-year horizon, but MerCoSur (or an equivalent organisation) will be a major power within my lifetime.

Then you have Asean, which I personally don't believe will achieve Great Power status, or even enough political and economic coherence to form a monetary union in the first place. It's located right between two major powers (India and China)... which seems to be an unhealthy thing to be, judging by the way the Greater Middle East and Europe during the Cold War turned out...

Sub-Saharan Africa is a complete basket case and will take at least a lifetime to sort out - and that's assuming that the Great Powers would stop actively trying to break things there...

So my guess would be €, Yen, US$ for the first ten to twenty years. After that, possibly the Ruble. And within my lifetime possibly Renmimbi, Rupi or South American Peso.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jan 14th, 2009 at 01:47:53 PM EST
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