Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
... in terms of the "stuff getting produced and moved around and used" economy. But I'm reading something along these lines:

  • The pie is getting smaller, because industry is being moved to places where it takes more resources to manufacture stuff than the places it comes from.

  • The developing countries take a part of the hit for the pie getting smaller, by ignoring pollution and other ecological costs that pile up due to the lower efficiency.

  • The Americans are taking the biggest hit, because their industrial plant is going the way of the dodo.

  • The transnats are laying increasing claim to the smaller pie, so right now they're winning.

  • This process cannot continue indefinitely, because when the Americans have lost (or lost claim to) too much of their industrial plant, the only way the transnats could increase their share is by laying claim to Chinese wealth, and the Chinese will oppose this more effectively than the Americans.

So when the music stops,

  • The Americans have lost big time.

  • The Chinese have gained, but due to the costs they're ignoring, they haven't gained nearly as much as they think right now.

  • The transnats who realise that the music will stop can position themselves to gain.

  • The transnats who fail to realise that the music will stop are going to be caught with their pants down, because their business model won't apply any longer

  • The transnats who plan ahead will attempt to capture tangible assets, rather than leave their fortunes in paper money, because when the music stops, the value of paper money will be a matter of political negotiation.

Does that sound about right?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jan 12th, 2009 at 06:59:33 AM EST
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