Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I took it to be what happened to the U.S. when China shifted away from using the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and the subsequent (possibly positive) impact of the collapse of the dollar.

China has already switched away from 100% reliance on the dollar in its peg, but the presumption of most people is that the US$ still has a very large weight in the basket of currencies that China is presently pegging against.

In the mini-utopia, it was not just China that essentially dropped the US$ from its peg, but most of the other major neo-mercantalist nations as well. Presumably the various Caribbean dollars would still be pegged to the US$, but not the East Asian, Southeast Asian, and South Asian currencies that are presently pegged directly to the US$ or that we presume to be pegged primarily to the US$.

So its a loss of the counterweight from multiple neo-mercantalist nations that presently buffers declines in the US$.

On a sidenote, the Singapore basket peg should not be confused with the kind of basket peg adopted by the Koreans in the 80's in their transition from a US$ peg to a float ... they adopted a trade-weighted basket, so even if they did not announce the composition, it could be inferred to reasonable precision from public information. The Singapore peg does not publish the composition, which makes it far more difficult to infer whether a given move is just the natural consequence of the weights of different currencies in the basket, or is the result of a shift in the peg.

Note that since the (undated) rates given in the look back from Jan 1 2020 were mostly around 50% of current rates, in the story when it was called a currency collapse, there was a bit of hyperbole in that. In a full fledged currency collapse, it would not be surprising if the dollar lost 75% or 80%.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Oct 8th, 2009 at 06:20:47 PM EST

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