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Can you validate the "wasted lots of research time" assertion?  As I understand it there is a huge amount of work in developing a computerised climate model, but once built you can plug in all sorts of scenarios, likely or unlikely to see what impact they would have on climate variables.  Indeed sensitivity  analysis to various factors is just that - plugging in a huge number of values for any given variable to see if you can identify tipping points or other multiplier effects.

I would expect research institutes to be doing this on an ongoing basis - adjusting their models when - e.g. India - adjusts its estimates for coal deposits - and I would expect the outputs/predictions to change over time.  This does not invalidate the science - this is how the science is done.

AS I understand it earlier estimates have proved unduly optimistic and later predictions are more alarming in terms of the pace of climate change.  If anything the predictions are more alarming as the data and the models improve.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 7th, 2009 at 03:07:03 PM EST
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