The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
But these aren't random experiments, they're not meant to be: there are a lot of possible explanations, other than bias, for the outcome.
Possibly Serbs did commit more war crimes than the others. Maybe Serbs are less likely to testify or bring evidence to the tribunal against others, making it harder to convict them.
Can I suggest that your conclusion of bias is based on validating your own biases: you might be right, but this doesn't demonstrate it at all.
In fact, I'd be pleasantly surprised, given the narrative and political environment it's operating in, if there wasn't a bias of some sort against Serbs in the tribunal's operations.
What you've done is shown that Serbs are convicted more often than you'd expect in random experiments.
What I've done is shown that Serbs are convicted more often than in other real life cases where the victor uses 'justice' to convict and discredit the losing side. I'm not even talking about war crimes committed by the victors... which are sure to never be brought to justice.
Possibly Serbs did commit more war crimes than the others.
Do you think that Serbs are genetically more prone to commit atrocities than other groups engaged in warfare? I don't, but that's precisely what MSM and many Western governments that actively participated in the country's dismemberment want you to believe.
This is the reason I listed all those Western wars with staggering numbers of civilian casualties in Upstate NY's diary on humanitarian intervention.
Maybe Serbs are less likely to testify or bring evidence to the tribunal against others, making it harder to convict them.
I don't think so. Just take a look at what happened to Carla del Ponte when she published her book alleging that the Kosovo Albanians engaged in a commerce of organs extracted their Serb victims (POWs and kidnapped civilians). She was not-so-elegantly told to shut up and move on.
Serbs have been active in requesting international arrest warrants of suspected war criminals. But politics always has the upper hand.
Do you think that Serbs are genetically more prone to commit atrocities than other groups engaged in warfare?
Does the fact that Nazi Germany had more war criminals than the Allies point to genetic causes, or political causes? Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
You don't have degrees of sanity in a war.
It's a lot easier to prosecute for a Srebrenica, which was carried out by the regular army with defined lines of command, than for a family murdered in a remote farmhouse by a militia. That's not bias, that's just the way it is.
Do you mind if I ask, Vladimir, what you hope to achieve? Speaking as an outsider, I am glad to see people prosecuted for crimes against humanity.
But I get the impression-and not for the first time-that you believe your allegations of bias undermine the need for the war crimes trials to take place. And that is something I utterly refute. If it is true, as you allege, that some ethnic groups are not being pursued as vigorously as others, then that is something that needs to be addressed by more prosecutions. "Miss, he did it as well" isn't an acceptable excuse for a slap in the playground, never mind thousands of murders.
If I have misunderstood you, then I apologise, and please take this chance to set the record straight.
What would not being "shafted" look like?
If it would look like (potentially) more Croats and Albanians going before the ICTY, then I might agree with you.
If it would look like fewer Serbs being called to account, then I don't.
I'm confused. Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
Investigation of KLA crime against YA soldiers in 1998 30 March 2009. 14:15 New investigative actions have been taken in the Nis District Court, to establish the facts about the crimes of KLA in the area of Kosare and "Morina" border post in 1998, when six members of the Yugoslav Army were killed, and another seven wounded. Among eight suspects there are two members of the Kosovo Protection Corps. The investigation relates to two events of September 30, 1998, that took place within one hour - first the vehicle of the Yugoslav Army ran into a mine, and the second was ambush against border troopers. War Crime Prosecution Spokesperson Bruno Vekaric has stated earlier that the Prosecution has serious evidence of terrorist attacks of KLA on the border troopers in 1998, including the video recording of the ambush, headed by Agim Ramadani's terrorists, who have fled after the crime to one of the camps in the Albanian territory.
New investigative actions have been taken in the Nis District Court, to establish the facts about the crimes of KLA in the area of Kosare and "Morina" border post in 1998, when six members of the Yugoslav Army were killed, and another seven wounded. Among eight suspects there are two members of the Kosovo Protection Corps. The investigation relates to two events of September 30, 1998, that took place within one hour - first the vehicle of the Yugoslav Army ran into a mine, and the second was ambush against border troopers. War Crime Prosecution Spokesperson Bruno Vekaric has stated earlier that the Prosecution has serious evidence of terrorist attacks of KLA on the border troopers in 1998, including the video recording of the ambush, headed by Agim Ramadani's terrorists, who have fled after the crime to one of the camps in the Albanian territory.
1. Hajdin Abazi 2. Ekrem Avdija 3. Alush Agushi 4. Rasim Agushi 5. Nazmi Ajeti 6. Hisni Ahmeti 7. Abdulah Babalija 8. Masar Bakija 9. Idriz Bala 10. Afrim Basha 11. Sokol Bashota 12. Bajram Bega 13. Gjemajl Bejta 14. Avni Berisha 15. Rustem Berisha 16. Shefik Beqiri 17. Lahi Ibrahimi 18. Ram Buja 19. Shukri Buja 20. Jah Bushati 21. Jusuf Velia 22. Azem Veseli 23. Kadri Veseli 24. Rexhep Veseli 25. Sali Veseli 26. Skender Veseli 27. Besim Vokshi 28. Latif Gashi 29. Fahrudin Gashi 30. Jetulah Gecaj 31. Sabit Gecaj 32. Gani Geci 33. Adem Grabovci 34. Jahir Demaku 35. Milazim Derguti 36. Jetulah Dibrani 37. Sokol Dobruna 38. Shaban Dragaj 39. Florim Ejupi 40. Agim Elshani 41. Xhabir Zharku 42. Dritton Zhjeqi 43. Tahir Zemaj 44. Genc Zogaj 45. Bislim Zyrapi 46. Nuredin Ibishi 47. Imri Ilazi 48. Gani Imeri 49. Elisah Imeri 50. Bexhet Imishti 51. Ahmet Isufi 52. Lirim Jakupi 53. Januz Januzaj 54. Bashkim Jashari 55. Musa Jashari 56. Rifat Jashari 57. Sahit Jashari 58. Naim Kadriu 59. Giner Kamberi 60. Ajvaz Karpuzi 61. Ajet Kastrati 62. Kadri Kastrati 63. Mensur Kasumi 64. Naser Kelmendi 65. Hisni Kilaj 66. Anton Kitaj 67. Fadhil Kodra 68. Arif Krasniqi 69. Gani Krasniqi 70. Gjimshit Krasniqi 71. Emin Krasniqi 72. Jakup Krasniqi 73. Skender Krasniqi 74. Bajram Kryeziu 75. Mazlom Kumnova 76. Mirsad Kurteshi 77. Agim Kuqi 78. Ramiz Lladrovci 79. Fatmir Limaj 80. Ekrem Lluka 81. Isa Latifi 82. Muhamet Latifi 83. Lulzim Leci 84. Afrim Lulaj 85. Nuredin Lushtaku 86. Sami Lushtaku 87. Enver Mavriqi 88. Naim Maloku 89. Faton Mehmetaj 90. Nazif Mehmeti 91. Fadil Mujota 92. Shefqet Musliu 93. Isak Musliu 94. Rustem Mustafa 95. Salih Mustafa 96. Arif Muqoli 97. Maliq Ndrecaj 98. Selami Neziri 99. Jakup Nura
But you're certainly right that the entire exercise is kind of silly, because the metrics we are measuring against are highly dubious in the first place. So even if there had been a signal, it would not have proven the case, only given cause for further investigation.
OTOH, that turns out not to matter, because even in the most generous possible interpretation of the data - according to the metric Vladimir proposed - there is no signal. Full stop. No deconstruction of metrics necessary.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
That starting a war is the ultimate crime was a noble sentiment during the Nuremberg trials but it seems to have been lost since. Or have anyone been indicted for that? (Bush and Blair certainly should be, but that is another story.)
Both military and civilian losses are often disproportionally on the loosing side of a war, regardless of who started it. But to count as a war crime you have to target civilians, not merely kill them while bombing for soldiers amongst them (as the ban on "Launching of Projectiles and Explosives from Balloons" only lasted five years and to my knowledge was not renewed). Or perform any other of the acts described as war crimes in the Hague and Geneva conventions.
So no, it is not necessary to assume anything about who started a war to assume that number of dead civilians are in proportion to number of war criminals. There are of course other assumptions that are necessary. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Also, there can be situations when somebody is particularly aiming on civilians and it does not result in so many casualties. Some examples of that you can see in ex Yugoslavia which built numerous atomic shelters underground (I lived in a 'town' of 20k including all the surrounding which had 11 completely equipped atomic shelters). For decades during Yugoslavia, there was an exercise practiced in spring that was called 'Nothing can surprise us'. They would turn the sirens on and people would go to the nearest shelter. The idea was to teach people during the peace where those shelters are, how they function and to practice quick evacuation.
What you seem to believe is that Serbs were the aggressors and that the Croats, Muslims and Albanians were their victims. If what you say is true, then: > Who is responsible for Serbian civilian casualties? > Why did over 600 000 Serbs flee their homes to become refugees in Serbia? > Why do Serbs represent the ethnic group that has lost by far the most personal land and property?
More, there were videos on youtube from the beginning of the war in Croatia where Serbian villans were interviewed saying that they caught arms and put trees over the roads because the stories coming from Serbian side are saying that new independent Croatia would attack them. You can't say that Serbs have ever had problems there before!
After Serbia took a big part of territories of Croatia and it stayed like that since '91. to '95, apart from local Serbs living there, there were other Serbs coming to live there because they were offered Croatian houses of those Croats that were expelled from their homes or murdered. One of many examples is a Croatian village Ceric that they renamed to Srbac. So, knowing that, Tudjman realized that if they even manage peacefully to bring back the country under their command (what was actually impossible), they will have a huge problem with Croatian refugees because it would be difficult to remove new planted Serbs from their houses. So they prepared the action 'Flash' that would be very strong and sudden, and if you follow the trial of Gotovina in detail, you will see that the voice of it (probably deliberately) came to Krajina a couple of days before it actually begun and they already prepared buses and trucks.
The point is that other nations that live in Serbia never thought of doing what some Serbs did to Croatia and Bosnia. and those SOME were commanded from Serbia. Serbia was calling them to occupy Croatian houses, giving then arms and telling them that if they do not fight they will be killed. They were even sending them buses of hookers from Belgrade to have some fun! Ones who lived there peacefully never had any problems and actually lived in shelters with us and suffered the same what we did.
And please, stop playing with speculative numbers! They say that there is some law that you can not say in Germany that there were less than 6 million of victims of holocaust. Well, they should probably change the law because they forgot to count all that Serbian victims that would elevate that number a lot! And sadly, some take that fact as an excuse to continue vendetta and kill as many as they speculate that were being killed, plus some interest.
that Serbia was sending it soldiers to fight in Bosnia and Croatia
Croatia was also sending it's soldiers to fight in Bosnia. Albanians were also fighting in Bosnia. Arab Mujahideens were also fighting in Bosnia and Kosovo.
You can't say that Serbs have ever had problems there before!
No kidding. Only 600 000 Serbs were murdered in Croat run death camps during WWII. With another 500 000+ sent fleeing to non HDZ territory. The same insignia used by Ustashi in WWII appeared again in the 1990's - on the Croat flag, it's police and army uniforms. That, coupled with Tudjman's anti-Serb rhetoric was clearly enough to bring back some nasty memories.
there were other Serbs coming to live there because they were offered Croatian houses
No. The documented flow of refugees was to Serbia - as of the early 1990's. Where would these new occupants have come from?
other nations that live in Serbia never thought of doing what some Serbs did to Croatia and Bosnia.
Funny you mention that, because if you take a look at the breakdown of ethic minorities in the Balkans, you'll find that the most multi-ethnic country today is... well, SERBIA.
They were even sending them buses of hookers from Belgrade to have some fun!
Busses of hookers. I see.
The documented flow of refugees was to Serbia - as of the early 1990's.
The Croatian claim is that rumours coming from Serbia were the cause of the exodus. I doubt that can be documented either.
The Serbs of Croatia also took arms first, in the Log Revolution.
As a part of his plea bargain with the prosecution, Milan Babić testified against Martić during his ICTY trial, saying Martić "tricked him into agreeing to the Log Revolution". He also testified that the entire war in Croatia was "Martić's responsibility, orchestrated by Belgrade".
Biljana Plavsic also plea bargained... and today she is saying that she was 'misled' by Albright, that she misrepresented the truth in the hope of avoiding sentence.
Is this going to become another Inquisitorial vs. Adversarial justice system debate? And is the ICTY run on an inquisitorial or an adversarial system?
Although international tribunals intended to try crimes against humanity, such as the Nuremberg Trials and the International Criminal Court, have generally used a version of the adversarial system, they have also incorporated some key features of the inquisitorial system, such as the use of professional judges, and in the case of the International Criminal Court, the use of a screening pre-trial chamber.
And is the ICTY run on an inquisitorial or an adversarial system?
I checked the statute.
ICTY - TPIY :: Statute of the Tribunal
Updated Statute of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia: September 2008 (PDF format)
It's a long pdf and my result is simply that I do not know, I think I lack the legal background to sniff out the key sentences. It would appear that the court has had some room to decide its own procedures, which might mean some mix considering the mix of judges. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
I personally know Serbs who were driven out of Dubrovnik in 1990. While the hysteria was being propagated by all media in the region (not only Serb) there were also numerous acts of violence perpetrated against individuals. I can't say whether the media was instigating or reacting to real events.
Because of harassment.
Which harassment? Yugoslavia separated. Croatia got its independence. And that is all that Croatia wanted. There was no reason to go against people who were living in it!!!
I remember my friend Jelena who also left. According to her family harassment consisted in saying that we are living in Croatia and not Yugoslavia. So the very name was a harassment for them.
I also have some Serbian friends. Dusko, for instance, left Dubrovnik because his tourism and excursion shop was vandalized in 1990.
Where would these new occupants have come from?
From Serbia, those who were living in powerty in overcrowded houses with several generations under the single roof in very little space, offered houses if they move there.
That doesn't add up.
If there where rumors that made the serb population flee that is on the other hand conssitent with croatian colonising. And vice versa. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Though the actors must either be inconsistent or different actors - with different motives - to at the same time promote rumors designed to make the existing population flee and try to colonize. That is, when the existing population already is the desired one.
you first have your people flee to the rearguard so you can take a clean shot at the others.
That's only if you're firing with heavy weapons. While these were used (and not only by Serbs with JNA material - since, as we know, Germany in particular sold billions of $ worth of Soviet arms inherited from East Germany to Croatia just before the war started) the most common form of "ethnic cleansing" was carried out by light, mobile paramilitary units. You don't need to move your people out for the paras to do their dirty work. You just need to know who lives where.
Let's be clear about who was cleansing whom when: Serbs were driving Croats out in 1991-2 and Croats drove Serbs out in 1995. Neither of these were done by "small mobile paramilitary units" - allegedly there was heavy artillery involved in both cases. Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
The balance of power was finally reversed in 1995, in part thanks to US military intelligence of key communications and logistics points used by the Croatian Serbs. NATO air support was also provided during Storm.
Croatia had been armed by Germany before 1990...
In addition, there was a weapons embargo imposed as soon as Croatia declared independence, which required Croatia to smuggle weapons in, and froze the balance of power where the Serb paramilitaries had JNA backing and Croatia effectively had no army. It took 3 years (and a side war in Bosnia to keep the JNA busy) for the balance to be reversed. Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
Before you asked me to substantiate, I sent a mail to the person who sent me a copy of that contract... some 13 years ago. I hope I'll get my hands on it again and if I do, I'll be more than happy to post it on ET.
GERMANY AND CROATIA: RESURRECTION OF THE "PURE" CROATIAN NATION STATE Reliable intelligence sources claimed in 1990, that in 1988 Mr. Tudjman paid a secret visit to the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) and met with Chancellor Kohl and other senior Government Ministers. It was said that the aim of the visit was to formulate a joint policy to break-up Yugoslavia, leading to the re-creation of a new independent State of Croatia with international borders in the form originally set up by the German Chancellor, Adolf Hitler, in 1941. At a secret meeting in Bonn, the German Government pledged its political, financial, and covert military support for Croatia's secession from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia the intelligence source claimed such an action fitted neatly into Germany's strategic objectives in respect of the Balkans, which included bringing Roman Catholic Croatia and Slovenia within the German economic zone, gaining direct access to the Adriatic and Mediterranean, and securing a favored nation status with the oil and gas producing Arab states. The latter to be enhanced by recognizing Bosnia-Herzegovina as a predominantly Muslim nation state, an entrée to modern Europe for Islam along a traditional path from Turkey via Albania and the Serbian areas of Kosovo and the Sandzak occupied by Muslim majorities. In the period leading up to Croatian secession there were signs that indicated the re-emergence of the historical axis previously seen in the days of the Holy Roman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Third Reich. There is no "conspiracy theory" in this: merely the reappearance of a geopolitical pattern.
Reliable intelligence sources claimed in 1990, that in 1988 Mr. Tudjman paid a secret visit to the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) and met with Chancellor Kohl and other senior Government Ministers. It was said that the aim of the visit was to formulate a joint policy to break-up Yugoslavia, leading to the re-creation of a new independent State of Croatia with international borders in the form originally set up by the German Chancellor, Adolf Hitler, in 1941. At a secret meeting in Bonn, the German Government pledged its political, financial, and covert military support for Croatia's secession from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia the intelligence source claimed such an action fitted neatly into Germany's strategic objectives in respect of the Balkans, which included bringing Roman Catholic Croatia and Slovenia within the German economic zone, gaining direct access to the Adriatic and Mediterranean, and securing a favored nation status with the oil and gas producing Arab states. The latter to be enhanced by recognizing Bosnia-Herzegovina as a predominantly Muslim nation state, an entrée to modern Europe for Islam along a traditional path from Turkey via Albania and the Serbian areas of Kosovo and the Sandzak occupied by Muslim majorities.
In the period leading up to Croatian secession there were signs that indicated the re-emergence of the historical axis previously seen in the days of the Holy Roman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Third Reich. There is no "conspiracy theory" in this: merely the reappearance of a geopolitical pattern.
It was a $2 billion interest free loan for 10 years. Not a $10 billion loan for 20 years.
Evidence of the axis in action occurred on October 4, 1990, when, even though still a part of Yugoslavia, Croatia was covertly provided with a US$2-Billion interest free loan, repayable in full after 10 years and a day. The loan was provided by the Ordre Souverain of Militaire de Saint-Jean de Jerusalem, Chevaliers-Hospitaliers de Malte. This ancient Order of Roman Catholic Knights of Saint John of Jerusalem was based in Malta during the Christian Crusades against the Islamic forces in Jerusalem. Today, the headquarters building of the Knights of Saint John of Jerusalem is located at 61 Via Nizza in Rome from where these modern Catholic Knights wield the influential power of high finance. There is a known strong link between the headquarters in Rome and Germany, with reports indicating the organization is even directed by German nationals. Ostensibly the loan was to fund priority civil engineering projects with a statement of conditions that the loan should not be used to fund military projects. However, well-placed sources said the loan freed-up other finances earmarked for civil projects, thus enabling the money to be redirected to equip armaments factories and to purchase weapons. The same source said that despite the "no funding of military projects' condition, a significant percentage of the US$2-billion loan was misused on armaments. Signatories to the contract on behalf of the Croats were Vice President Dr. Mate Babic and Madamme Maksa Zeleu Mirjana, Counseler at the Ministry of Finance authorized to act on behalf of the Minister of Finance. This US$2-Billion loan has never appeared in any Croatian Government financial statement. When Waterman Associates, on behalf of the Croatian Embassy in Washington D.C., sent out a press release in 1994 purporting to show a very low amount of foreign debt/loan, I challenged their figures, mentioning the US$2-Billion loan from the Knights of Saint John of Jerusalem. The embassy said they had no knowledge of the loan, so I offered to send them a complete copy of the "Object du Financement". My offer was declined as they said such a document did not exist. It should be remembered, that this loan was made to Croatia prior to secession. At time when Croatia was still a part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and obliged under the Federal Constitution to disclose any such transactions.
This US$2-Billion loan has never appeared in any Croatian Government financial statement. When Waterman Associates, on behalf of the Croatian Embassy in Washington D.C., sent out a press release in 1994 purporting to show a very low amount of foreign debt/loan, I challenged their figures, mentioning the US$2-Billion loan from the Knights of Saint John of Jerusalem. The embassy said they had no knowledge of the loan, so I offered to send them a complete copy of the "Object du Financement". My offer was declined as they said such a document did not exist.
It should be remembered, that this loan was made to Croatia prior to secession. At time when Croatia was still a part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and obliged under the Federal Constitution to disclose any such transactions.
And German arming of Croatia began as early as 1989.
The reunification of the two Germanies and modernization of the East German armed forces, made available a substantial pool of weapons and military instructors for arming and training of a Croatian militia. During late 1989, and throughout 1990, arms flowed from Germany to Croatia to equip militia units. After HDZ party (Croatian Democratic Union) won control of Sabor in the May 30, 1990, multi-party elections, the newly elected President Tudjman formed a National Guard Corps (ZNG). In effect, the ZNG was not a "national" force in the accepted meaning of the word, rather it was the ultra-nationalist, neo-Ustashi military wing of Tudjman's HDZ political party, in the same way that the "Brownshirts" of the 1930's acted as the vanguard enforcement wing of Hitler's National Party. It has been asked why did Yugoslav Government in Belgrade not prevent the formation of the ZNG. The answer is quite simple. At the time, all the senior positions in the federal internal security organizations, and many senior posts in the General Staff of the JNA, were held by the Croats. For instance, Croatia's first Minister of Defence, Martin Spegelj, was a senior general in the Yugoslav Armed Forces at the time of secession. With the full support of Germany, and against the wishes of other members of the EC, the HDZ ruling party declared Croatian sovereignty in the Sabor on December 22, 1990, despite strong objections raised by the opposition parties. Shortly after the declaration, President Tujman introduced a new Croatian constitution which defined Croatia as the national state of the Croatian people and others, pointedly relegating the Serbs, Jews, Gypsies and Muslims to second class status. This was an exact repeat of what had happened in 1941 when nazi Germany invaded Yugoslavia and set up Croatia as the national state of the Croatian people and others. After the HDZ dominated Government passed the new constitution, discrimination against the Serbs began immediately. Serbs lost government jobs in the civil service, police, local authorities etc...they were evicted for their homes, many lost the ownership of their own businesses, and Serb newspapers were closed down etc. A special property tax applicable only to Serbs was introduced, and Croatian militia openly looted and closed down shops selling expensive products such as jewelry. These measures clearly indicated to the Serbs living within the administrative borders of Croatia that they must leave the land where they had lived for three centuries, or face the consequences of staying. One of the most sinister changes was that every identified Serb in Croatia was issued with a new identity card which incorporated the figure 3 as the eight figure in the identity number. The figure 3 thus became the Croatian equivalent for Serbs as nazi Germany's Star of David was for all Jews residing in countries dominated by Germany. When the time came for ethnic cleansing to start, the figure 3 would ensure no Serb would escape.
It has been asked why did Yugoslav Government in Belgrade not prevent the formation of the ZNG. The answer is quite simple. At the time, all the senior positions in the federal internal security organizations, and many senior posts in the General Staff of the JNA, were held by the Croats. For instance, Croatia's first Minister of Defence, Martin Spegelj, was a senior general in the Yugoslav Armed Forces at the time of secession.
With the full support of Germany, and against the wishes of other members of the EC, the HDZ ruling party declared Croatian sovereignty in the Sabor on December 22, 1990, despite strong objections raised by the opposition parties.
Shortly after the declaration, President Tujman introduced a new Croatian constitution which defined Croatia as the national state of the Croatian people and others, pointedly relegating the Serbs, Jews, Gypsies and Muslims to second class status. This was an exact repeat of what had happened in 1941 when nazi Germany invaded Yugoslavia and set up Croatia as the national state of the Croatian people and others. After the HDZ dominated Government passed the new constitution, discrimination against the Serbs began immediately. Serbs lost government jobs in the civil service, police, local authorities etc...they were evicted for their homes, many lost the ownership of their own businesses, and Serb newspapers were closed down etc. A special property tax applicable only to Serbs was introduced, and Croatian militia openly looted and closed down shops selling expensive products such as jewelry. These measures clearly indicated to the Serbs living within the administrative borders of Croatia that they must leave the land where they had lived for three centuries, or face the consequences of staying.
One of the most sinister changes was that every identified Serb in Croatia was issued with a new identity card which incorporated the figure 3 as the eight figure in the identity number. The figure 3 thus became the Croatian equivalent for Serbs as nazi Germany's Star of David was for all Jews residing in countries dominated by Germany. When the time came for ethnic cleansing to start, the figure 3 would ensure no Serb would escape.
If on the other hand the attacker has mostly infantry, local population on the attackers side is an asset as they know terrain, hide-outs etc. And in an ethnic conflict where both parties speak the same language and look the same, local knowledge is essential in determining who is in the desired cathegory and who is not. Of course, you can argue that anyone who does not to as they are told are the enemy in one way or the other.
I have not enough data to form a real opinion on the case here myself, so I'll let you argue which case this is. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Tough it is geared towards large-scale violence - bombing, artillery, WMDs, starvation - where you have problem discriminating the violence.
Similarly, in the days preceding Operation Storm in 1995, the authorities of the RSK initiated a mandatory evacuation of the civilian population, resulting in a wave of refugees into Bosnia.
Now, in both cases a large part of the flow of refugees/internally displaced is an "evacuation towards the rearguard" rather than being driven out at gunpoint, but the distinction is not very useful. The flow of refugees is the same and the cause of the flow is the general condition of fighting. Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
Why did over 600 000 Serbs flee their homes to become refugees in Serbia?
No he hasn't. That's a statistical mirage, because he arbitrarily classifies 7 of the Serbian suspects as being related to Kosova (rather than, say, split them evenly among the three wars, or split them among the three wars in proportion to the number of civilian casualties, both of which would have been more appropriate).
To understand why this is misleading, consider the outcome if I placed those seven indictees in Bosnia instead of Kosova: Then the vanilla average (which remains an inappropriate measure), goes from 3 per mille to 2.4 per mille. Purely from arbitrarily designating the 7 Serbian indictees for which there is too little information in the indictments to tell which wars they were indicted over.
And then he proceeds to happily make a vanilla average out of ratios that are up to a full order of magnitude different in both numerator and denominator. You're not allowed to do that. When you divide a very small number by another very small number, you get a higher uncertainty on your ratio than when you divide a very big number by another very big number. One or two wrongfully indicted Serbs from the Croatian war - or one or two hundred civilians miscounted - would count far more towards the ratio than a similar number for Bosnia.
So the three ratios cannot be given equal weight. You avoid all these problems by using a weighted average. But of course, the "signal" goes away when you do that...
he arbitrarily classifies 7 of the Serbian suspects as being related to Kosova
One thing that Vladimir does wrong is compare Indictees to Convictions, implying that those not convicted have been acquitted. This is not the case. The proper comparison would be the ratio of convictions to acquittals/case-dismissals as there are a number of cases which are ongoing, have been transferred to national jurisdiction, were never concluded because the indictee died, or in which the indictee is at large. Vladimir posted the full stats here (these do not distinguish between the different wars or regions, only ethnic groups):
Stats from ICTY (none / 0) Here they are
The vanilla averages instead of weighted averages is still nonsense, though.
For 7 Serbs (like Slobodan Milosevic) and others (mostly members of the FRY government or army and navy) who were not accused of a specific war crime in Bosnia or Croatia, I associated their indictment with events in Kosovo.
Milosevic is mentioned as part of a "Joint Criminal Enterprise" with Seselj, who was indicted for events in Croatia. You can't just throw Milosevic into the Kosovo pot to inflate the ratio of Serbs to Albanians indicted for Kosovo. Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
Neboja Pavkovic Charges of war crimes, deportation and forcible transfer, murder and persecution.
Nikola ainovic Charges of war crimes, deportation and forcible transfer, murder and persecution.
Sreten Lukic Command authority for crimes against humanity in Kosovo
Vladimir Lazarevic Charges of war crimes, deportation and forcible transfer, murder and persecution.
Milan Simic No information
BBC News | EUROPE | Profile: Dragoljub Ojdanic
During 1999, when the Yugoslav army and police committed atrocities against Kosovo Albanians, Colonel General Dragoljub Ojdanic held the position of the Yugoslav Army's chief of staff.
Neboja Pavković - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Neboja Pavković (Serbian Cyrillic: Небојша Павковић; born in the village of Senjski Rudnik near Ćuprija on April 10, 1946) was former Chief of the General Staff of FRY. In 2009, he was convicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) of committing crimes against humanity and war crimes in the Kosovo War.
BBC News | EUROPE | Profile: Nikola Sainovic
In May 1999, the UN War Crimes Tribunal in the Hague indicted Nikola Sainovic for war crimes committed in Kosovo in 1998 and 1999.
Trial Watch : Sreten Lukic
The original indictment alleges that Sreten Lukic as well as Vladimir Lazarevic, Vlastimir Djordjevic and Nebojsa Pavkovic (see "related cases"), planned, instigated, ordered, committed or otherwise aided and abetted in preparing certain crimes. According to the indictment Lukic was part of a joint criminal enterprise which had the aim, in addition to other objectives, to expel a major part of the Kosovo Albanian civilians from the province in which they were living in order to maintain this province under Serb control. This joint criminal enterprise reportedly came into being, at the latest, in October 1998 and continued until 20 June 1999.
Trial Watch : Vladimir Lazarevic
The original indictment alleges that Vladimir Lazarevic as well as Vlastimir Djordjevic Nebojsa Pavkovic and Sreten Lukic (see "Related Cases"), planned, instigated, ordered, committed or otherwise aided and abetted in preparing certain crimes. According to the indictment Lazarevic was part of a joint criminal enterprise which had the aim, in addition to other objectives, to expel a major part of the Kosovo Albanian civilians from the province in which they were living in order to maintain this province under Serb control. This joint criminal enterprise reportedly came into being, at the latest, in October 1998 and continued until 20 June 1999.
Sentencing Judgement in the case "The Prosecutor v. Milan Simic"Accused Convicted to 5 years Imprisonment
The accused, Milan Simic, a 42 year-old Bosnian Serb, was first indicted by the Prosecutor of the Tribunal together with Blagoje Simic, Simo Zaric, Miroslav Tadic, Stevan Todorovic and Slobodan Miljkovic for crimes alleged to have occurred in the area of Bosanski Samac in north-western Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1992.
it would have required hours of sifting through documents to find them
So, one out of seven was misplaced. Does it change anything. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
And then he proceeds to happily make a vanilla average out of ratios that are up to a full order of magnitude different in both numerator and denominator. You're not allowed to do that. When you divide a very small number by another very small number, you get a higher uncertainty on your ratio than when you divide a very big number by another very big number. One or two wrongfully indicted Serbs from the Croatian war - or one or two hundred civilians miscounted - would count far more towards the ratio than a similar number for Bosnia. So the three ratios cannot be given equal weight. You avoid all these problems by using a weighted average. But of course, the "signal" goes away when you do that...
by gmoke - Nov 28
by gmoke - Nov 12 9 comments
by Oui - Dec 5
by Oui - Dec 41 comment
by Oui - Dec 2
by Oui - Dec 123 comments
by Oui - Dec 16 comments
by gmoke - Nov 303 comments
by Oui - Nov 3012 comments
by Oui - Nov 2838 comments
by Oui - Nov 2713 comments
by Oui - Nov 2511 comments
by Oui - Nov 24
by Oui - Nov 221 comment
by Oui - Nov 22
by Oui - Nov 2119 comments
by Oui - Nov 1615 comments
by Oui - Nov 154 comments
by Oui - Nov 1319 comments
by Oui - Nov 1224 comments
by gmoke - Nov 129 comments