A Statistical Analysis of the ICTY's bias. | 220 comments (213 topical, 7 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: So we can conclude that (none / 1)

There could be several reasons, but my guess - and a guess is all it can be - is that there was enormous political pressure to come up with a list of suspects.

On the other hand, the US went into Iraq with a list of high-level members of the Iraqi Government that they wanted arrested, also likely before being able to gather evidence.

So, it is possible that this is standard operating procedure.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 18th, 2009 at 09:27:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So we can conclude that (none / 0)

So with a similar war criminal to civilian casualty ratio in Iraq, from the early bombing phase, before there was an insurgency, what number of war criminals would we expect? just out of interest.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Mar 18th, 2009 at 11:19:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So we can conclude that (none / 1)

I performed two fits: the first

Coefficients: (Intercept) log(casualties) -4.0792 0.7741 Response: log(indicted)

(which I prefer) gives you roughly

(indicted)^4 ~ (casualties)^3 / (9 million)

The other

Coefficients: (Intercept) -6.095

Had a slope of 1 "by fiat", so you get

(indicted) ~ (casualties) / 400

Taking the number of casualties to be 1 million you get

180 indictees by the first model

2500 indictees by the second model.

I'd go for the first model.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 18th, 2009 at 11:30:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So we can conclude that (none / 0)

Yeah, but the whole sordid Iraq story is not usually trumpeted as an example of Western(TM) moral high ground - on the subject of rule of law or otherwise...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Mar 18th, 2009 at 02:16:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A Statistical Analysis of the ICTY's bias. | 220 comments (213 topical, 7 editorial, 0 hidden)

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