Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
(My emphasis)
So, if my reading is correct:
> others are getting acquitted at significant rates
> Croats are getting off the hook at significant rates
No. The expected number of acquittals under the null hypothesis (which is that trial status is independent of ethnicity) is
	  Total  Serb Croat Other
Acquitted    32  20.6  6.52  4.89
The observed number of acquittals is
	  Total Serb Croat Other
Acquitted    32   13	 6    13
The normalised size of the deviations is
	       Serb	 Croat	    Other
Acquitted 2.7954551 0.04182424 13.4398968
The significant difference is between the acquittal rates of Serb indictees (low) and "Other" indictees (high). Croats are being indicted at the average rate for the whole court.

Now, it does not follow that Serbs are being convicted at a higher rate, though one should check. The expected number of convictions under independence is

	  Total  Serb Croat Other
Convicted    69  44.4 14.10 10.50
And the observed number is
	  Total Serb Croat Other
Convicted    69   48	13     8
which (although it has a 7% higher Serb conviction rate than expected) is not significantly different from the expectation for any group (basically, 7% deviations are to be expected in a random experiment)
	       Serb	 Croat	    Other
Convicted 0.2938299 0.08045151	0.6154036
So, the "missing" acquitted Serbs are maybe (but only partly) in "excess convictions" with the rest in the "unknown" category (which includes ongoing/transferred cases, dead suspects, "at large" suspects and "unknown"). If you go back to the top-level post you will find that the largest deviation among these categories is the "Dead", of which 9 would be expected and 12 are observed.

So, another difference is that more "Serb" (and Croatian) cases are dragging out than those of the "Other" ethnic group. The expected number of "unknown" cases is

	  Total  Serb Croat Other
Unknown      56  36.0 11.40  8.56
and the observed number is
	  Total Serb Croat Other
Unknown      56   40	13     3
with normalised deviations of
The observed deviations are
	       Serb	 Croat	    Other
Unknown   0.4384904 0.22037435	3.6118488
In fact, given the deviation, the only "effect" is a speedier case resolution for the "Other" ethinic group.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 19th, 2009 at 03:54:02 AM EST
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